http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/askba/262425.html



With his strong finishing kick, Yankees righthander Philip Hughes has claimed
the title as the best pitching prospect in the minor leagues. In a Double-A
playoff start Wednesday night, he went six innings, allowing five hits and
one walk while striking out 13. He didn't allow more than two hits in any of
his last seven starts, which is impressive even if tight pitch counts kept
him from going more than five innings in any outing.

In his last eight starts, including his postseason effort, Hughes has gone
4-0, 0.90 with a 61-8 K-BB ratio, .127 opponent average and no homers allowed
in 40 innings. If I were running the Yankees, I'd test him out in September
and get him on the postseason roster.





         How come Yankees outfielder Jose Tabata is considered a better
         prospect than Mets outfielder Fernando Martinez? Their numbers
         seem to be comparable, and Martinez spent a month in high Class A.

         Harris Cohen
         Brooklyn


         I understand Jose Tabata has more of a track record, but he and
         Fernando Martinez seem to be following similar paths to the majors:
         signed by New York clubs, same age, same position, same level.
         Who has the bigger upside, and who is a safer bet to reach that
         potential?

         Randy Arias
         New York


         Please compare the Jose Tabata and Fernando Martinez, both in
         present and future tools. Tabata gets more press right now, but
         who’s better?

         Carlo Giustozzi
         Limerick, Pa.


Along with Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen, Martinez and Tabata were the
most exciting players in the low Class A South Atlantic League this summer.
That both Martinez and Tabata were just 17 only added to the intrigue
surrounding them, and Martinez also was making his pro debut. Martinez hit
.333/.389/.505 with five homers, 28 RBIs and seven steals in 45 games, while
Tabata batted .298/.377/.420 with five homers, 51 RBIs and 15 steals in 86
contests.

Assistant editor Matt Meyers is working on our SAL Top 20 Prospects list, and
he reports that very few scouts actually saw both Martinez and Tabata in
action. That's because Martinez missed a month each with wrist and knee
injuries before spending August in the high Class A Florida State League,
while Tabata sat out most of the last seven weeks with a bruised thumb. Matt
did find one scout who caught both young stars, and he rated Tabata slightly
ahead of Martinez because he offers more with the bat. Martinez is more
athletic and has a better five-tool package, while Tabata projects as an
above-average right fielder, offensively and defensively.

It's really just a matter of preference, as there's little to separate the
two. Martinez has a little more ceiling, while Tabata is a little safer bet
because we have more history to go on. Given my choice, I'd take Tabata, but
that's more of a gut feel based on the line drive he smoked against Philip
Hughes in the Futures Game and his slightly longer track record.




         This isn't meant as a slam on you guys, but in reading the last
         Ask BA, I couldn't help but notice that your description of Joe
         Koshansky was almost identical to the writeups you used to give
         about Ryan Howard. Baseball America had them both on the outside
         looking in at the Top 100 Prospects list. I thought you guys might
         have learned your lesson after Howard, but it seems you haven't--
         or at least aren’t open to the possibility that Koshansky could
         be a big-time player in the majors. Why is it that BA doesn't get
         as excited about guys like Howard and Koshansky as you do about
         others?

         Bill Stinneford
         Fort Worth, Texas


BA didn't ignore Howard nearly as much as Bill makes it sound like we did.
After his first two seasons at Southwest Missouri State and a stint with a
loaded 2000 edition of Team USA, we projected him as a possible first-round
pick for the 2001 draft. Howard lasted until the fifth round after hitting
.271 with a school-record 74 strikeouts. He started making our annual
Phillies Top 10 list after his first full season in 2002.

He just missed the cut for the Top 100 after 2003, when he led the Florida
State League in homers (23) and slugging percentage (.514). The knocks on him
at that point were that he was old for high Class A (23), struck out a ton
(an FSL-high 151 times) and was an offense-only player whose bat absolutely
would have to carry him.

Looking back, of course we wish we had snuck him onto the Top 100 at that
point. But we learned our lesson with Howard back in 2004, when he bashed a
total of 48 homers between Double-A, Triple-A and the majors. We ranked him
No. 27 on the subsequent Top 100, an indication that we did believe in him.

As for Koshansky, I said he probably wouldn't make the upper half of the
Rockies Top 10 (mostly because Colorado has one of the best farm systems in
the game) and probably would just miss the Top 100 next spring. That doesn't
mean he's not a good player.

I also don't think the comparison to Howard holds up. Howard was identified
as a top prospect early in his college career, while Koshansky went undrafted
as a junior and was a sixth-round senior sign. Koshansky has good power, but
Howard has off-the-charts power.

At age 23, Koshansky hit 38 homers, but most of them came in a low Class A
bandbox, so it was easy to suspect that he might be an older guy beating up
on youngsters and taking advantage of his ballpark. At the same age, Howard
was starring in high Class A. This year, at age 24, Koshansky had 31 homers
and 109 RBIs in Double-A. At the same age, Howard had his 48-homer explosion
and reached the majors.

If we're lining up multitooled players with hitting ability against bat-only
players, we're probably going to side with the multitooled group more often
than not. I haven't done a study of position players who have just made or
just missed the Top 100 to confirm my suspicions, or to see which group is
more successful in the long run. That philosophy cost us Howard on our 2004
Top 100, but it also got Matt Kemp on last year's list.




         The Cubs have had eight rookie pitchers start this year. Who
         has the best stuff, and who is likely to make the rotation
         next year? Is Donald Veal a possibility next year?

         Walt Rybak
         Park Ridge, Ill.


         With the Cubs having used eight different rookie starters this
         season, which one has the greatest potential to have a good major
         league career? Can you tell me anything about Ryan O'Malley, who
         pitched eight shutout innings against the Astros in his major
         league debut?

         Bill Hecht
         Chicago


The eight rookie starters, in the order of how many turns they’ve taken in
the rotation: Sean Marshall (5-9, 5.27, 21 GS), Carlos Marmol (5-6, 5.35, 13
GS), Rich Hill (4-6, 4.83, 12 GS), Angel Guzman (0-4, 7.05, 8 GS), Juan Mateo
(1-2, 5.10, 6 GS), Ryan O’Malley (1-1, 2.13, 2 GS), Jae-Kuk Ryu (0-0, 14.54,
1 GS) and Les Walrond (0-0, 15.19, 1 GS). Marshall, Hill, O’Malley and
Walrond are the lefties in the group.

With the Cubs having to rely on rookies for nearly half their starts, and the
performances they’ve received, it’s easy to see how they’re making a run
at the Royals for the worst record in baseball.

When we last discussed Hill in Ask BA, he was continuing to dominate Triple-A
and struggle mightily in the majors. Since then, Hill has gone 4-2, 3.21 with
a 46-17 K-BB ratio in 53 innings, becoming the pitcher Chicago hoped he
would. As a lefthander with a big-time curveball and a solid fastball, Hill
is best of the Cubs’ rookie mound corps. He’s the only lock to be in next
year’s rotation.

That title easily could have been Guzman’s. Before he slightly tore his
labrum in mid-2003, he showed three plus pitches and fine command. Since
then, his stuff and location haven’t been the same, and his health has
remained an issue.

Marshall and Marmol have the stuff to be effective big league starters if
they can improve their changeups. Both were rushed to the majors this year
and have suffered through some growing pains, but they do have some promise.
Ryu and Mateo could wind up as starters if they could continue to develop but
look more like middle relievers at this point, while O’Malley and Walrond
are more journeymen than part of Chicago’s long-term plans.

O’Malley, 26, signed with the Cubs as a nondrafted free agent in 2002 after
pitching at Lincoln Land (Ill.) CC and Memphis. His best pitch is his
changeup, and he also has a mid-80s fastball and a so-so slider. He was
fortunate that it was his day to pitch after Chicago used every available
pitcher in an 18-inning game, so he got the promotion from Triple-A and made
the most of it.

As for Veal, he could make it to Wrigley Field in 2007. A lefthander with a
91-94 mph fastball, he needs to improve the consistency of his curveball and
changeup, which are plus pitches at times. He’ll probably begin next season
in Double-A but could shoot through the upper minors quickly.