http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/askba/262539.html
While mostly everyone is focusing on who will win the division and wild-card
races, don't forget that chase for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2007 draft.
Kansas City has a two-loss lead on Tampa Bay with three games to play, and if
the Royals hold on they'll become the first team ever to pick first in
consecutive drafts.
Which one of the pitchers the Cardinals recently have drafted in
the first round will have the biggest impact: Chris Lambert, Mark
McCormick or Adam Ottavino? Which one has the most upside?
Jerred Gracey
York, Pa.
If we're including supplemental first-rounders like McCormick, don't forget
Tyler Herron and Chris Perez. In terms of upside, the most promising pitcher
in the group is McCormick. He has thrown in the mid-90s since high school and
his curveball can be a plus pitch at times. But he's inconsistent with the
quality of his secondary pitches, his command and his ability to compete.
McCormick also battled shoulder problems this season, and I don't have much
faith that he's going to reach his ceiling.
I think Perez is going to have the biggest impact on the Cardinals, and he
could start to do so in the near future. He had no problems getting
acclimated to pro ball after St. Louis made him the 42nd overall pick in
June. He went 2-0, 1.84 with 12 saves in 25 games at low Class A Quad Cities,
posting a 32-19 K-BB ratio, .198 opponent average and zero homers allowed in
29 innings.
The Cardinals bullpen has imploded down the stretch, with Jason Isringhausen
having hip surgery and the rest of the relief corps having trouble getting
outs. Perez could help out at some point in 2007, and he's the best in-house
bet to eventually succeed Isringhausen as closer. He has a 92-95 mph fastball
that's electric when it's down in the strike zone, and his mid-80s slider is
an even better pitch.
It seems like every division brought up large amounts of talent
this year. If you had to create an all-rookie team for each
division, which would be the best? The National League East with
all the Marlins, the NL West with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks,
or one of the other divisions?
Pat Toy
New London, N.H.
It has been a tremendous year for rookies, one of the best in recent memory.
In terms of sheer depth, no division can compete with the NL East.
Putting together an NL East all-rookie team leaves very few holes. Start with
Mike Jacobs at first base, Dan Uggla at second, Ryan Zimmerman at third,
Hanley Ramirez at shortstop and Josh Willingham in the outfield. A rotation
of Josh Johnson, Cole Hamels, Scott Olsen, Anibal Sanchez and Chuck James is
as impressive as it gets, and Taylor Tankersley (bet you didn't realize he
has 22 holds) can anchor the bullpen. The only positions lacking a standout
rookie performer can be filled with catcher Chris Coste and outfielders
Jeremy Hermida and Lastings Milledge. In the long run, Hermida and Milledge
could have the best careers in this group.
The only division that can remotely challenge that depth is the NL West. That
lineup features Russell Martin at catcher, Conor Jackson at first base, Josh
Barfield at second, Stephen Drew at shortstop and Andre Ethier in the
outfield. The rotation goes three deep with Matt Cain, Clay Hensley and Chad
Billingsley, and the bullpen beats the NL East with Cla Meredith, Jonathan
Broxton and Ramon Ramirez setting up Takashi Saito.
It's more cyclical than anything, but almost all of the good rookie position
players came from the NL. The American League had plenty of outstanding
rookie pitchers, but lacked the bats to put together a viable team even if
you grouped all three divisions together.
How good a prospect is Diamondbacks second baseman Emilio
Bonifacio? I know it came in the hitter-friendly California League,
but a .321 average, .824 on-base plus slugging percentage and 61
steals seem awfully strong for a 21-year-old in high Class A. His
44-104 BB-K ratio wasn't strong, but it improved quite a bit (23-43)
in the last two months. Will he make BA's Arizona Top 10 Prospects
list, even as deep as that farm system is?
Justin Riddick
Nashville
Second base isn't exactly a prospect haven, but Bonifacio is one of the
better up-and-coming minor leaguers at his position. Signed out of the
Dominican Republic in 2001, he has made steady improvement in his three years
in full-season ball. Though Diamondbacks still have a deep farm system, he
could sneak onto the bottom of their Top 10 when we unveil it early next
year.
Bonifacio just missed the Top 10 in the Cal League, checking in at No. 11.
We'll have the full Top 20 posted on Tuesday, but I'll give you a sneak
preview of what Aaron Fitt wrote about him:
After spending the previous two years at low Class A South Bend, Bonifacio
continued to improve significantly as he moved up to Lancaster, leading the
league with 61 stolen bases (in 75 attempts) and finishing second with 117
runs. He draws comparisons to Twins second baseman Luis Castillo for his game
and his body, and though his slugging percentage rose 119 points from a year
ago, Bonifacio knows his game is keeping the ball on the ground and using his
plus-plus speed.
"Whenever he pops a ball up, you can see his body language--he knows that's
not him," an American League scout said. "He's a switch-hitter, a slap
contact guy, he knows his game and looks very teachable and receptive.
There's no doubt in my mind he'll play in the big leagues. He's got all the
tools you look for in an All-Star second baseman. He may be the most exciting
player I've seen in a while."
Bonifacio has been clocked between 3.4 and 3.6 seconds up the line from the
left side on a bunt, giving him a chance for a hit on any grounder to the
left side. He's always hustling and putting pressure on the defense, and his
instincts on the basepaths are outstanding.
Bonifacio has the tools to be a plus defender at second base, with soft
hands, good quickness and improving range. He still plays out of control at
times and tends to rush his throws, but his arm strength is adequate and his
exchange is very smooth