While I’ve only published seven pieces so far at Baseball Prospectus, I’ve
received a fair amount of feedback from people asking about some of the
terminology I use. So I’m taking the next three days to delve into the
scouting process and discuss some of the lingo used. Today, I start the
discussion by looking at position prospects.

The Scouting Scale:

Scores for a player’s attributes, be they the traditional five tools for a
position player or individual offerings for a pitcher, are graded on the
20-80 scouting scale. As to why the scale is 20-80 as opposed to something
seemingly more logical like 0-100, I don’t have an answer for you, but I’m
looking. Grades are given on a base-5 system (40, 45, 50, 55, 60, etc.). I
know of one organization that did allow all scores (like 53 or 41), but they
eventually saw it as splitting hairs and went back to counting by fives. Some
organizations got rid of the zeros and grade players on a 2-8 scale.

A score of 50 is major-league average, 60 is above-average (also referred to
as “plus”), and 70 is among the best (“plus-plus”). 80 is top of the
charts, and not a score that gets thrown around liberally. 80s in any
category are rare, and the scoring system is definitely a strong curve that
regresses to around 50 at the major league level, but lower as you move down.
Very few players have a 50 score or higher for every tool. Just being average
across the board is quite an accomplishment. When scouting a player, scores
are given in two categories: Present and Future. Present is what the player
is right now, while Future is the true art of scouting--projecting what a
player will become. So an example of scouting scores for a player might look
like this:

Joe Ballplayer, OF  Present Future
Hitting               40      50
Power                 40      60
Running               40      35
Fielding              45      45
Arm                   35      35
OFP: 53

On the most basic level, what do we have here? We have a decent young hitter,
who should develop into an average hitter. He has some power now, but offers
plenty of reason for optimism (be it size, strength, build, approach, etc.)
to believe he’ll develop into a major league power hitter. He’s not
especially fast now, and it is thought that he’ll lose a step as he moves up
the ladder. He’s a slightly below-average outfielder, and his arm is below
average, so he’s likely a left fielder. Just as Bill James showed in a
Baseball Abstract that one can get a visual picture of a player from simply
looking at his stats, the same can be true from looking at a scouting report.

The final score, OFP, is an abbreviation of Overall Future Potential. This is
a scout’s single score on a player. It is not an average of his individual
scores, as those scores (plus other factors, such as position) need to be
weighed differently on a case-by-case basis. The OFP scale works just like
the individual tool scale. A 50 score indicates that the scout thinks the
players will be an average major league regular. A score in the mid-60s or
higher indicates that the player projects to be a star, while a score under
40 usually means a NP or “No Prospect.”

Now let’s examine at the individual tools to see what evaluators are looking
for.

Hitting:

Quite simply: the ability to routinely put the ball into play by making solid
contact with the barrel of the bat on the middle of the ball. As you can note
from the scouting report above, this is different from hitting for power,
which is graded out as a different tool. This is more the ability to hit for
a high batting average. Factors that scouts look at when evaluating this tool
include:

Plate coverage: Ability to hit the ball when it is in various places within
the strike zone. Can he be jammed inside? Can he hit outside pitches? Can he
hit high and low pitches?

Using all fields: Can he go opposite field or does he try to pull everything?
Does he have the ability to simply take the ball right back up the middle for
a clean hit, or does he constantly sacrifice contact by trying to crush
everything?

Pitch recognition: Ability to recognize fastballs, breaking balls and
changeups out of the pitcher’s hand, the ability to make adjustments based
on the type or locations, and therefore (and most importantly) the ability to
hit various types of pitches.

Bat Speed: Self-explanatory--how fast is his swing. Scouts will often refer
to “quick wrists” or “twitch muscles” when discussing this aspect.

Swing mechanics: Is the hitter balanced? Is there a load in his swing, where
the bat goes back before it goes forward (this is a good thing)? Does the
hitter incorporate his lower half into his swing? Are his arms fully-extended
at the point of contact? Does his bat go through the zone in a straight line
or is there a hitch or loop in his swing? Mechanics are a very funny thing.
If you watch any baseball game, you’ll see that every player, while
following the same basic template, still has a his own unique hitting style.
As a basic rule, if it’s not broke, don’t fix it. For example: Julio Franco
starts each pitch with his bat almost pointing at the opposing pitcher. This
creates a long “bat-wrap,” meaning there is a more than a normal amount of
distance between where the bat starts and where the bat needs to be. However,
because Franco has such good bat speed and has over 2,500 major league hits,
you don’t correct it. If you have a young hitter batting .245 in the
Carolina League doing that, coaches will try to shorten his swing.
Quick note: Pitch recognition is not plate discipline, and plate discipline,
or the ability to draw walks, is not graded as a tool. The ability to lay off
pitches is not a physical skill. That said, it is definitely an important
aspect of any hitters’ game, and is something that is certainly noted by the
scouting world when evaluating talent.

To give a player an average (50) grade in hitting is to say he has the
ability to hit for an average batting average (as awkward as that sounds), or
roughly in the .260s. To give a player a 70 hitting score is to say he can be
a consistent .300 hitter. An 80 is to say he has the potential to contend for
the batting title on an annual basis.

Some Prospects With Very High Hitting Scores: Daric Barton, Alex Gordon,
Conor Jackson, Howie Kendrick, Delmon Young.

Power:

Chicks dig it. The ability to hit the ball over the fence can make for the
most exciting of prospects, and the most frustrating. Many aspects go into
this and there are different kinds of power hitters. For a hitters like Hank
Aaron, or more recently Eric Davis, their power came from tremendous bat
speed and quick wrists, while for a more traditional slugger like David Ortiz
or Adam Dunn, you are talking more about good hitting ability combined with
brute strength. Power comes in many forms. There are pure pull-hitters who
try to wrap everything around the left-field foul pole (if they bat
righthanded). These players also can have a tendency to get “pull-conscious,
” which is to attempt to pull every pitch they see, making them worse
hitters for average and leaving them susceptible to high strikeout totals. In
one of the first spring training games broadcast by ESPN this year, Braves
catching prospect Jarrod Saltalamacchia hit a game-winning home run off
Dodgers righthander Jonathan Broxton, taking a mid-90s fastball the other
way, and still clearing the fence with plenty of room to spare. That kind of
natural power--where a player could hit the ball squarely in any direction
and the ball could leave the park--is far more difficult to find. Power can
be one of the easiest things to grade, and one of the most difficult to
project, and there is a generally believed scouting axiom that power is the
last tool to arrive. To project a player to move up one or two grades (10-20
points) on his power score you need to believe that several things will
happen:

The player will get stronger or learn how to better incorporate his existing
size and strength into his swing.

The player will learn to recognize those pitches he can pull, and begin to do
so.

The player will learn how to add loft to his swing. When it comes to loft,
you want to still see the bat on a single-plane, but leaving the hitting area
slightly higher than when it enters. You do not want to see a pure uppercut,
where the bat loops through the hitting zone.
Some Prospects With Very High Power Scores: Prince Fielder, Ryan Harvey,
Brandon Wood, Delmon Young.

I list these players for a reason, as they illustrate the many differences
between power hitters. Three inches shorter and somewhere around 75 pounds
(depending on the day) heavier than Wood, Fielder is as physically strong as
any player in baseball, and combined with his quick bat, he’s the best pure
power prospect in baseball. Wood is almost skinny, with long arms and legs,
but he has tremendous wrists, putting a whip-like motion into his swing while
also getting excellent extension in his arms. Young is listed to show that he
is a rare commodity, as he was also listed among the prospects with the best
hitting scores. Players with 70+ scores in hitting and power are rare. The
best examples in each league are Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols. I list
Harvey because he is an example of a player with a very high power score, but
a low hitting score. Harvey’s swing can get long, and his pitch recognition
is poor, but he has as much pure power as anyone in the minors. There are
plenty of players who have had lengthy big league careers with very low
hitting grades but very high power grades (Rob Deer), or just the opposite
(Juan Pierre).

Tomorrow I’ll take a look at how scouts evaluate what position players do
with a bat in their hands, and how scouts weigh all the different tools based
on a player’s position.