by Rany Jazayerli
July 12, 2000

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=669



After winning the NL Central three straight years, the Houston Astros limped
into the All-Star break with a 30-57 record, the worst in baseball by five
games. Only three teams in history have gone from first to last in one
season:


Year  Team                 Year 1     Year 2

1914  Philadelphia (AL)     99-53     43-109
1986  California            92-70      75-87
1992  Oakland               96-66      68-94

The 1981 Reds and 1994 Expos went from first to last, but neither one made
the postseason in their successful season, the Reds because of the ridiculous
split-season format and the Expos because there was no postseason.

The 1914 A’s are the only team to have a lower winning percentage than the
Astros’ current .345 a year after finishing in first place. And the A’s
weren’t trying to win in 1915, having sold off all their stars in the First
Great Fire Sale.

Surprisingly, of the 43 teams in major-league history to finish in first
place three straight seasons, four of them finished under .500 in year 4:


Year  Team                Year 1   Year 2   Year 3   Year 4

1990  Pittsburgh           95-67    98-64    96-66    75-87
1962  New York (AL)        96-66   104-57    99-63    77-85
1991  Toronto              91-71    96-66    95-67    55-60
1970  Pittsburgh           89-73    97-65    96-59    80-82

None of these four teams would make the playoffs in the five years following
the seasons they collapsed, which is not a good sign for the Astros.

This has been no ordinary collapse in south Texas. The Astros are 30-57, but
that breaks down as 3-19 in one-run games, 27-38 in all other affairs. That
3-19 record in one-run contests is unfathomable. Last year, the Kansas City
Royals became just the fourth team to play under .260 ball in one-run games:


Year  Team                W    L    Pct.

2000  Houston             3   19    .136
1935  Boston (NL)         7   31    .184
1937  St. Louis (AL)     10   31    .244
1916  Philadelphia (AL)  11   32    .256
1999  Kansas City        11   32    .256

There is, as you might suspect, a strong correlation between records in
one-run games and whether a team outperforms or underperforms their
Pythagorean projection. The Astros have scored 456 runs and allowed 510.
Using the standard Pythagorean formula (Runs^2/(Runs^2+Runs Allowed^2)), the
Astros should have a .444 winning percentage and be 39-48. They have
underperformed their projection by a whopping 8.7 games.

The greatest underperformers of all time, along with their record the
following season (expected records and differences have been rounded):


Year  Team             Actual   Expected    Diff.   Next Year

1905  Chicago (NL)      92-61     106-47      -14      116-36
1993  New York (NL)    59-103      73-89      -14       55-58
1911  Pittsburgh        85-69      99-55      -14       93-58
1986  Pittsburgh        64-98      77-85      -13       80-82
1984  Pittsburgh        75-87      88-74      -13      57-104

The unluckiest team ever was the 1905 Chicago Cubs, who managed to win 92
games despite falling short of their projection by 14 games. The following
year, they simply had the greatest single-season record of all time. Four of
the five teams improved the following season, and those four all improved by
at least 8 1/2 games. We have no rational explanation for why the Pittsburgh
Pirates made the list twice in a three-year span. And in 1985, the year in
between, Pirates pitcher Jose DeLeon went 2-19, despite having more
strikeouts (149) than hits allowed (138).

The Astros are currently 8.7 games behind their projection; however, if they
continue to underperform at the same pace all season, they would finish 16
games below expectation, which would shatter the record.

By comparison, the five greatest overachievers ever:


Year  Team             Actual   Expected    Diff.   Next Year

1905  Detroit           79-74      64-89      +15       71-78
1955  Kansas City       63-91     51-103      +12      52-102
1972  New York          83-73      71-85      +12       82-79
1943  Boston (NL)       68-85      56-97      +12       65-89
1984  New York (NL)     90-72      78-84      +12       98-64

The 1984 Mets, featuring rookies Dwight Gooden, Ron Darling and Sid Fernandez
under rookie manager Davey Johnson, had an amazing record in one-run games
behind the performances of Jesse Orosco and Doug Sisk. The Mets were 15-5
when tied after eight innings that year. But instead of collapsing the
following season, the Mets traded for Gary Carter and rode Gooden’s best
season to within three games of the Cardinals; they would win it in 1986.

But the other four teams all played at least two games worse the following
season, even though two of them were well under .500 to begin with. In their
first season in Kansas City, the A’s had the second-luckiest season of all
time...and still went 63-91. In English Literature, that’s what they call an
"omen."