by Rany Jazayerli
June 15, 2000

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=625



One of the arguments for the case that the quality of baseball is better now
than ever before is that pitchers are hitting worse, relative to the league,
than they ever have. Because pitchers reach the major leagues for reasons
independent of their hitting ability, the assumption is that the quality of
their hitting should not change with time. If their offense declines relative
to the guys who get paid to hit, then that would suggest that those hitters
are improving with time.

That’s the theory, anyway.

Let’s take a look at how pitchers have hit, over time, relative to the
league. The top five ratios of pitchers’ OPS to league OPS since
hit-by-pitch data (necessary to calculate OBP) became available in 1884:


Year  League  OPS (P)  OPS (L)  Ratio

1886  AA       .571     .628     .909
1884  AA       .502     .603     .832
1895  NL       .628     .761     .826
1894  NL       .667     .814     .820
1887  NL       .572     .707     .809

You get the picture. Back in the 19th century, pitchers frequently played
other positions on their days away from the mound, and career switches from
the mound to another position were quite common. The top 13 ratios are all
from the 1800s; the top 20th century ratio occurred in 1901. The top 32
ratios all occurred by 1920.

The five worst ratios all time, using a 500 at-bat minimum that eliminates
the American League in the DH era:


Year  League  OPS (P)  OPS (L)  Ratio

1987  NL       .348     .734     .474
1997  NL       .356     .747     .477
1964  NL       .334     .687     .487
1990  NL       .345     .707     .488
1999  NL       .379     .774     .489

Ten of the worst 11 ratios have occurred in the 14 NL seasons since 1986. In
1971, the overall OPS in the NL was just .685, compared to .774 in the NL
last year; but pitchers in 1971 had the higher OPS, .383 to .379.

Of course, there is a much better explanation for this than that pitchers are
batting against a higher caliber of competition (i.e., themselves). The AL
embraced the DH in 1973, and as the DH has permeated all levels of baseball,
from the minor leagues down to high school, it has meant fewer opportunities
for all pitchers to hone their craft at the plate. Looking at just the five
worst performances from before 1973:


Year  League  OPS (P)  OPS (L)  Ratio

1964  NL       .334     .687     .487
1963  NL       .338     .671     .503
1965  NL       .346     .687     .504
1967  NL       .345     .675     .510
1959  NL       .372     .727     .512

The 17 worst ratios prior to 1973, and 23 of the 24 worst ever, occurred
between 1959 and 1972, which suggests that even prior to the introduction of
the DH, pitchers were becoming increasingly inept with the bat.

Breaking it down by decade since the 1890s, after removing the AL from 1973
onward:


Decade  OPS (P)   OPS (L)   Ratio    AB/G

1890s    .558      .714     .782     4.02
1900s    .454      .639     .710     3.50
1910s    .454      .659     .688     3.19
1920s    .503      .743     .677     3.23
1930s    .476      .742     .642     3.22
1940s    .438      .700     .627     3.06
1950s    .434      .724     .599     2.88
1960-72  .371      .690     .538     2.63
1973-79  .385      .701     .549     2.48
1980s    .360      .696     .518     2.34
1990s    .363      .733     .496     2.15

As you can see, the ratio of pitchers’ OPS to overall league OPS has
declined steadily throughout history, with the interesting exception of the
NL from 1973 to 1979. Is it possible that in the first few years of the DH,
National League teams made a conscious effort to acquire the best-hitting
pitchers in the Junior Circuit?

Of the ten-best hitting pitchers (by OPS) in the AL from 1970 to 1972, only
Sonny Siebert, Jim Kaat and Joe Niekro spent any significant time pitching in
the NL from 1973 on. Looking at it the other way, among the ten worst-hitting
pitchers in the NL from 1970 to 1972, only Jack Billingham, Ross Grimsley and
Bill Singer made the switch to the AL after the DH was implemented (although
Jerry Koosman did so much later, from 1979 to 1983). So that theory seems
pretty flimsy. If anyone has a better theory as to why NL pitchers started
hitting better in the 1970s, I’d love to hear it.

I included a listing of at-bats per game for pitchers to show that while
pitchers have consistently had fewer at-bats per game (and therefore fewer
chances to practice hitting) throughout history, the decline is probably not
enough to explain the drop in their performance. In particular, the ratio of
pitcher OPS to league OPS declined even when pitcher at-bats remained fairly
steady from 1910 to 1940, as the increased use of relievers was balanced by
an increase in offense that gave every batter more at-bats.