by Frank Bundy III
June 25, 2006

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Why would the Washington Nationals want Alfonso Soriano?

This is a question I am sure many of us asked this past off-season when the
former Montreal Expos acquired the ex-second baseman from the Texas Rangers
in exchange for outfielders Brad Wilkerson, Terrmel Sledge and a minor league
pitcher; including me.

Coming into 2006 there was already legitimate reason to believe the just
Wilkerson, himself, was already the better player than Soriano:

Stats coming into 2006:


Thru 2005   AB    BA   OBP  Slug%   OPS  SB CS   SB% AB/HR
Soriano   3255 0.280 0.320  0.500 0.820 169 43 79.72 20.09


Thru 2005   AB    BA   OBP Slug%   OPS SB  CS   SB% AB/HR
Wilkerson 2265 0.256 0.365 0.452 0.817 43  35 55.13 27.29


Their OPS was nearly identical, and even though Soriano was a faster player
with more power, he succumbed to Wilkerson in the most important category:
OBP.  In this writers opinion, and many others, Soriano's rare combination of
power and speed did not make up for his extreme lack of on-base skills
because, after all, a player can't do much damage if he isn't on-base.

On top of this quick-shot analysis were many more factors that tipped this
deal in favor of the Rangers.  The difference in each players AB/HR rate was
sure to even out as Wilkerson was moving to the very hitter-friendly
Ameriquest Field in Texas, while Soriano was moving to the home run-killing
RFK Stadium in Washington D.C.

One must also consider that Soriano was an absolutely horrible fielder.  Even
though he would end up moving to left-field in Washington (as the Nationals
already had a good second baseman), it was safe to say that he would not play
the position any better than Wilkerson would if he were their left fielder in
2006.

While I consider no fielding metric to be completely accurate, the one I
could find that spanned each players entire career was over at Baseball
Prospectus.com and called Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA--a metric I've
used before).  Using this metric Soriano's career FRAA coming into 2006 was
-49 (mostly at second base), while Wilkerson's was at +4 (mostly in the
outfield).  When you consider that not only did Wilkerson have experience in
left field, but that he played it competently, it was very fair to say he
would be the better left fielder in 2006 and beyond.

Lastly there was the little, minor detail about the two players salaries.
 Soriano was due to make $10 million in 2006 through arbitration while
Wilkerson was due to make somewhere around $4 million.

It appeared that the Nationals were swapping a fairly cheap, productive,
good-fielding young player for an equally productive, much more expensive,
horrible fielding player that they would play out of position.

This was a stupid move, right?  WRONG.

Let's come back to the present tense and take a look at how the two players
have performed for their respective teams thus far in 2006:


 2005    AB   BA  OBP  Slug%  OPS SB CS  SB% AB/HR
Soriano 305 .282 .344  .567  .912 18  7 72.0 12.71


 2006      AB   BA  OBP  Slug%  OPS SB CS  SB% AB/HR
Wilkerson 232 .246 .328  .478  .807  3  2 60.0 17.85


Soriano has bettered Wilkerson in every one of the above-listed categories.
 If he continues hitting like this for the remainder of the season Soriano
will be worthy every penny of the $10 million his salary calls for.

While there are many reasons to believe Soriano will go through a decline as
the season wears on (just look at the discrepancy between his career stats
above and his 2006 stats), I don't think it will be that harsh a fall.  Why?
 Because this season Soriano is doing something he has never done before;
showing patience at the plate.

A "quick and dirty" way to identify this is to look at the difference between
Soriano's batting average and OBP.  That difference coming into this season
was .040 (far below league average between .065 and .070).  In 2006 that
number has risen to .062.

A better way to see this improvement, though, is to look at Soriano's Pitches
seen per Plate Appearance (P/PA), and his BB/PA:

       P/PA (Diff)   BB/PA (Diff)
2006   3.86 (+.20)   0.082 (+.034)
Career   3.66          0.048

The improvement is there, and is impossible to deny.  Soriano is a better
hitter in 2006 than he has ever been.  Swinging at "your pitch," and spitting
on ones outside of the strike zone is the very principle that hitting is
based on, and when a player can do this he is altogether more productive.

While a players patience is not a facet of the game that he can decisively
improve by leaps and bounds, it isn't impossible to be more selective; and
Soriano is doing just that.  While a small decline is most likely upcoming, a
large one probably is not.

Wilkerson, on the other hand is sure to sustain an increase in production.
 He already has great disciple at the plate, and is already showing very good
power.  On top of this, with the temperature rising in Texas the balls he
hits are sure to fly even further.

Using a quick estimation of the expected declines and increases in Soriano's
and Wilkerson's production I'd say at season's end Wilkerson ends up a
.830-.840 OPS player, while Soriano ends up with an OPS between .885-.895.
 Offensively, it appears as if the Nationals definitely get the better
player.  We have yet to look at each players defensive prowess though.  It is
only when we do this that we can gauge how valuable each player is/will be.

Using the same metric as above Soriano scores a zero FRAA; meaning his play
in left field so far has been average.  Remember, average production from a
horrible-fielding second baseman playing out of position is a definite
positive.  Wilkerson, mostly playing left field, scores a (-2).

Against all odds, Soriano has been the better defensive player than Wilkerson
as well.  When this is considered the comparison of the two isn't even close.
 But, just like a player can improve and worsen on offense, they can do the
same defensively.  For the obvious reasons of lack of experience, and past
performance record I expect Soriano to drop below the average mark in left
field.  With Wilkerson, for the complete opposite reasons, I expect him to
improve.

After all this is said and done it seems that, at years end, the Nationals
will have gotten the better player here.  But, they are paying $6 million
more for him, and the other players they gave up in the deal (mentioned
above) must not be forgotten.  Terrmel Sledge is a very talented player, but
he has only gotten 25 AB's this season, and wasn't worth analysis at this
point.

So while on the surface it appears that the Nationals largely got the better
end of this deal because of Soriano's gaudy offensive numbers; when money and
talent given up are considered it is a lot closer than you may believe and is
definitely not an overbearing "W" for the Nationals.