[新聞] John Sickels Top 20 Prospects

[GY6 (HONDA)]

農場評價 by John Sickels

http://sbn.to/eXWS1Z

Philadelphia Phillies Top 20 Prospects for 2011

1) Domonic Brown, OF, Grade A:
He may have some adjustment pains, but I believe in him.
He's come a long way from being unable to hit rookie ball pitching.
評:可能會有段陣痛期，但對他還是很有信心!


2) Jonathan Singleton, 1B, Grade B+:
Concern over poor second half splits kept me from going with the A-,
but I do like him a lot. Can he adjust to the outfield?
How will bat play in Florida State League?
評:下半季勞賽讓他拿不到A-的分數，但Sickels很喜歡他(羞)，
   問題是他能夠適應外野嗎?升上A+後會變得如何呢?


3) Brody Colvin, RHP, Grade B+:
Best of the hard-throwing high school pitcher cadre the Phillies have
gathered recently.
評:最好的火球高中生。


4) Jarred Cosart, RHP, Grade B:
Borderline B+, would get the higher grade but
I'm concerned about his durability given elbow soreness.
評:差一點點就有B+，有分數更高的可能，但就怕痛痛。


5) Trevor May, RHP, Grade B:
Like Cosart, I considered higher grade due to his incredible dominance
potential, but in his case command issues cost him a notch.
評:跟Cosart一樣，基於他的天花板很想給高一點分數，但就是卡在他的控球。


6) Jesse Biddle, LHP, Grade B:
One of my favorite players from the '10 draft class,
power-armed lefty and a local talent to boot.
評:10年選秀中我很甲意的其中一位，有天份的豪腕左投。


7) Sebastian Valle, C, Grade C+:
He has intriguing defense and power combination,
but strike zone judgment needs a lot of work.
評:很奇妙的手套+長打綜合體，但是誰來救救他的選球啊啊啊啊!


8) Domingo Santana, OF, Grade C+:
Very, very young for his levels last year.
Quite toolsy, will need more development time.
評:以他待的層級來說，他真的太~~年輕了，充滿著天份，但還需要長出來的時間。


9) Vance Worley, RHP, Grade C+:
Should be a competent fourth starter. Doesn't have the ceiling of some of
the guys below, but a much safer bet to make it.
評:應該能勝任四號等級先發，跟底下一些人比起來，天花板可能還沒那麼高，
   但是他會是個比較安全的賭注。


10) Julio Rodriguez, RHP, Grade C+:
Sleeper prospect, great numbers and late season scouting reports indicate
velocity increase.
評:低調新秀，有不錯的數據，而且球探報告說他的球速有進步。


11) Cesar Hernandez, 2B, Grade C+:
Excellent speed and defense in the difficult-to-hit-in New York-Penn League.
I think he is overlooked.
評:很棒的速度跟守備，而且是在不利打者的NYPL，我認為他被大家忽略了!
(我查了一下，這聯盟平均OPS是.688，而Hernandez打出.782的成績)


12) Justin De Fratus, RHP, Grade C+:
At worst a very good reliever, and I think there is a chance he could close
eventually.
評:至少會是頭好牛，甚至有成為關門人的機會。


13) Josh Zeid, RHP, Grade C+:
Was a bit old for the Sally League, but numbers are excellent,
scouting reports are good, and he pitched well in Arizona Fall League.
I think he is underrated by other sources.
評:以他年紀來說，在這層級算有點老了，但他的數字相當漂亮，球探報告也都很正面，
   在AFL也投得很好，我認為他被低估了!


14) J.C. Ramirez, RHP, Grade C+:
Great arm, still working on learning how to pitch.
評:健康的手臂，但仍在學習怎麼投球。


15) Perci Garner, RHP, Grade C+:
Raw for a college pitcher, but I like his ceiling.
評:仍然很菜的大學投手，但有天花板。


16) Austin Hyatt, RHP, Grade C+:
Borderline C, Changeup artist could be fifth starter or useful bullpen asset
within the next year.
評:接近C，變速球高手，明年有可能是五號先發或牛棚的候選人。


17) Jiwan James, OF, Grade C:
Borderline C+, Yes, Yes, I know all about his tools, and I actually like him.
But he didn't make much progress turning those tools into skills in 2010.
On upside-only he would rank in the top ten,
but I don't grade just on upside. Performance counts too.
評:接近C+，OKOK，我知道他很有天份，我也很喜歡他，但是他還沒有把天份轉為實績，
   但如果只看天份甚至可以排入前十，但沒真正打出成績前免肖想我會把他排這麼高。


18) Aaron Altherr, OF, Grade C:
Borderline C+, Like James, he's got excellent tools, and like James he would
in the top ten on tools alone. But my ratings are a combination of
tools and skills, and his skills are still quite raw.
評:接近C+，就像幾旺詹姆士，很有天份，也一樣單靠天花板可以有前十，
   但是我的評價是綜合了天花板與實際表現，他現在表現出來的還是太嫩了些。


19) Leandro Castro, OF, Grade C:
See James and Altherr.
評:同上兩位(喂!很不負責任捏!)


20) Matt Rizzotti, 1B, Grade C:
Flipside of the last three prospects.
Rizzotti can hit, but is limited defensively and blocked in Philadelphia.
評:打得不錯，但守備不算好+在費城有人擋路。


OTHERS OF NOTE: Phillippe Aumont, RHP; Drew Carpenter, RHP; Zach Collier, OF;
Kelly Dugan, OF; Gauntlett Eldemire, OF; Freddy Galvis, SS; Harold Garcia,
2B; Tyson Gillies, OF; Mario Hollands, LHP; Bryan Morgado, LHP; Jonathan
Musser, RHP; Jon Pettibone, RHP; Brian Pointer, OF; Cameron Rupp, C; Michael
Schwimer, RHP; Kevin Walter, RHP; Matt Way, LHP.


I expect the first six or seven slots here won't be controversial at all.
There is broad industry consensus on the top levels of the Phillies system.
Brown is outstanding and the perfect model of how the Phillies want their
tools guys to develop. Singleton was great this year, then you have the group
of impressive young pitching prospects. I think Colvin is the best of the
group, but all of them have the talent to rank number one on this list a year
from now.
我想前六或七名應該爭議不大，費城高階級農場深度相當不錯，
Brown非常傑出，也是費城人希望那些新秀們養成的最好典範，
Singleton有很好的一年，緊接著是一群另人印象深刻的年輕投手新秀，
我想Colvin又是其中佼佼者，但他們其中任何一人，
都有可能在未來一年內竄升上第一新秀寶座


Then it gets weird. The Phillies have a large mass of raw tools guys: James,
Santana, Altherr, Castro, plus Collier, Dugan, Eldemire, and Pointer. They
have unrefined power arms like Ramirez and Garner. They also have several
polished pitchers with excellent performance records but less praise from
scouts, but who could help in the majors sooner than the raw tools guys. On
tools and upside alone, the athletes would rank ahead of the skill players.
But history shows that most of the raw tools guys are going to fail, or at
least not live up to their potential. Domonic Brown is the exception, not the
rule.  I don't grade on just upside; my philosophy is that I look at both
tools and skills, future potential and current performance. Sometimes my
opinion will come down on one side of that divide, sometimes another.
但接下來就很奇妙了，費城有一拖拉庫有天份但還沒長出來的新秀，像是:
James、Santana、Altherr、Castro(這四位有排進前二十)，
以及Collier、Dugan、Eldemire、Pointer。

還有年輕的手臂，像Ramirez、Garner。

也有經調教後表現良好，卻沒受到太多矚目的投手，
但他們卻比那些天份還沒轉成實績的人，有更快上大聯盟的機會。

假若只有天份，可能在新秀排名上能排的很前面，
但歷史告訴我們大部份這種有天份沒實績的人最終常是失敗收場，
或是最終仍沒辦法把天份完全表現出來，Brown是個例外，但非常規。

我的評分並非只算入天份，我的原則是我會考慮天份與實際表現，
有時會斟酌情況，天平可能會偏向某一端。

(後面恕我不翻了，簡單說就是:我不是大仙，大家參考參考就好，不要打我)


The whole point of baseball prospecting is to make your own judgments and not
just regurgitate the rankings of other people, experts or not. It helps to
remember that none of us have a perfect window into the future; the cloud of
unknowing descends on us all. Doing this for 15 years has taught me a lot of
humility. This is part of the reason I always go back and look at my old
lists at mid-season, to see where I was right, where I was wrong, and why.
Sometimes my approach works, sometimes it doesn't, but the biggest problems
I've run into have occurred when I let someone else's opinion override my own
judgment.


Also remember the disclaimer in the first paragraph: Grade C+/C guys are
pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. If you want
to emphasize something else on your own list, by all means do so. Also keep
in mind that all of the grades are shorthand for my opinion about a player.
The full opinion is in the book.


心血來潮列出近幾年比較重大交易案的作物。

胖子:
Adrian Cardenas, 2B, Grade C+ (還在運動家)
Matt Spencer, OF-1B, OTHERS   (在百年)


Lee:
Jason Knapp, RHP, Grade B     (笑臉人)
另外三隻已經畢業了(附上10年初資料)。
Carlos Carrasco, RHP, Grade B-
Jason Knapp, RHP, Grade B-    (當時)
Lou Marson, C, Grade C+
Jason Donald, SS-2B Grade C+


Doc:
Kyle Drabek, RHP, Grade A-    (藍鳥)
Michael Taylor, OF, Grade C+  (去運動家)
Travis D'Arnaud, C, Grade B-  (藍鳥)


推土機:
Anthony Gose, OF, Grade B-    (去藍鳥)
Jonathan Villar, SS, Grade C+ (太空人)


同場加映，把Lee交易掉，我們從水兵盤來的:
J.C. Ramirez, RHP, Grade C+
Phillippe Aumont, RHP, OTHERS
Tyson Gillies, OF, OTHERS
(我承認每次看到這筆都很吐血...[問卦] 有沒有配菜變主菜的八卦?請Z大踹共啦)



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