[分析] 2011 Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

[GY6 (HONDA)]

http://tinyurl.com/3es2z7d by John Sickels


( http://tinyurl.com/23796pr 開季前評價)



This is a review of the 2011 Pre-Season Top 20 list. IT IS NOT A NEW LIST.

The 2012 list and new grades won't be ready until the season is over and I
start writing the book.

1) Domonic Brown, OF, Grade A:.337/.447/.554 in 83 minor league at-bats
split between Triple-A Lehigh Valley and injury rehab with High-A Clearwater.
Hitting .246/.335/.393 with 25 walks, 34 strikeouts in 183 major league
at-bats. He'll be fine, he just needs to play.
評:好

2) Jonathan Singleton, 1B, Grade B+:  Hitting .285/.383/.422 with 10 homers, 57
walks, 92 strikeouts in 344 at-bats between High-A Clearwater and High-A
Lancaster following trade to Houston Astros. Lots of walks, power hasn't fully
developed yet.
評:掰

3) Brody Colvin, RHP, Grade B+:   4.25 ERA with 62/34 K/BB in 89 innings for
Clearwater, 93 hits, 1.47 GO/AO. Not a great year, ratios deteriorating from
Low-A.
評:鳥

4) Jarred Cosart, RHP, Grade B: Traded to Astros.  3.92 ERA with 79/43 K/BB,
1.65 GO/AO in 108 innings for Clearwater before the trade, 98 hits. Pitched six
shutout innings in Double-A debut following the trade. Electric stuff, still
learning how to use it.
評:掰

5) Trevor May, RHP, Grade B:  3.40 ERA with 169/55 K/BB in 124 innings for
Clearwater, 99 hits, 0.64 GO/AO. Outstanding strikeout rate. Command still
needs some work, but his stock continues to rise.
評:K or BB


6) Jesse Biddle, LHP, Grade B: Struggled in April but has been strong ever
since, overall 3.20 ERA, 109/59 K/BB in 113 innings for Low-A Lakewood, 92
hits, just three homers. Needs to cut down the walks some but overall a fine
full-season debut.
評:OK

7) Sebastian Valle, C, Grade C+:  Hitting .303/.329/.428, five homers, 10
walks, 63 strikeouts in 290 at-bats for Clearwater. 33% of runners caught,
passed ball and error rates much better than last year. I don't like the low
walk rate, but he's making progress, particularly on defense, and is just 21.
評:BB在哪?

8) Domingo Santana, OF, Grade C+:  Hitting .273/.345/.448 with seven homers, 28
doubles, 23 walks, 114 strikeouts in 326 at-bats for Lakewood. Toolsy, just 19
years old, but poor BB/K/AB ratio shows need for polish if he wants to succeed
at higher levels.
評:天份

9) Vance Worley, RHP, Grade C+: Very successful in the majors: 2.35 ERA, 8-1
record, 66/28 K/BB in 84 innings, 65 hits for the Phillies. I don't think he'll
keep his ERA that low over a 200 inning season, but at worst he's going to be a
fine inning-eater.
評:工具馬

10) Julio Rodriguez, RHP, Grade C+: 14-6, 3.03 with a 119/48 K/BB in 122
innings for Clearwater, 84 hits. He deserved more respect pre-season (Baseball
America ranked him at number 25 in the system) and he should get it now.
評:沒愛

11) Cesar Hernandez, 2B, Grade C+: Hitting .252/.288/.320 with 18 steals, 18
walks, 63 strikeouts in 341 at-bats for Clearwater. Effective glove and runs
well, but lack of power and weak on-base skills hurt stock. Age 21, still has
time to improve.
評:腿

12) Justin De Fratus, RHP, Grade C+:  2.10 ERA with 43/14 K/BB in 34 innings
for Double-A Reading, 4.50 ERA with 32/8 K/BB in 26 innings for Lehigh Valley,
2.09 combined GO/AO. Strikeouts/grounders combination should make him useful
bullpen arm.
評:牛

13) Josh Zeid, RHP, Grade C+: 5.91 ERA with 60/28 K/BB in 67 innings for
Reading and Corpus Christi combined following trade to Houston, 71 hits. I
think he's capable of better, but will end up in relief, not starting.
評:掰

14) J.C. Ramirez, RHP, Grade C+: 4.63 ERA with 69/42 K/BB in 117 innings for
Reading, 112 hits. I keep thinking he will do something, but it never seems to
happen, and the low strikeout rate is not a good sign.
評:鳥

15) Perci Garner, RHP, Grade C+: Has pitched just 3.2 innings for Williamsport
in the New York-Penn League, fanning four, walking three. Obviously we need
more data here.
評:???

16) Austin Hyatt, RHP, Grade C+:  3.76 ERA with 143/41 K/BB in 124 innings for
Reading, 106 hits. Love the K/BB, K/IP, and H/IP, but he gives up a lot of fly
balls and homers, and is already 25 years old.
評:球很容易飛出去

17) Jiwan James, OF, Grade C:  .281/.340/.389 with three homers, 31 walks, 98
strikeouts, 22 steals in 416 at-bats for Clearwater. Still has remarkable
tools, power has not developed yet. He has a very high ceiling. I'd give him a
C+ at this point, high ceiling, still high risk.
評:天份

18) Aaron Altherr, OF, Grade C: Just .211/.272/.272 in 147 at-bats for
Lakewood. Sent down to Williamsport, hitting .280/.313/.435, seven walks, 33
strikeouts, 14 steals in 168 at-bats. Like James, excellent tools but still
unrefined.
評:天份

19) Leandro Castro, OF, Grade C:  .277/.304/.481 with 10 homers, five walks, 33
strikeouts, 10 steals in 231 at-bats. See a pattern? Power, speed, horrible
plate discipline. On DL since late June
評:BB在哪?

20) Matt Rizzotti, 1B, Grade C:  .290/.388/.506 with 20 homers, 64 walks, 104
strikeouts in 393 at-bats for Reading. Have to like the power, but already 25
years old.
評:老炮

There is still an intriguing system despite the trade of Cosart and Singleton,
although it is clear that not all the tools guys are going to develop the way
Dom Brown has.

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> -------------------------------------------------------------------------- <

作者: GY6 (HONDA) 看板: Phillies
標題: Re: [分析] 2011 Top 20 Prospects in Review
時間: Tue Aug  9 19:02:03 2011


隨便來聊一下小檸檬狀況。

先說，底下不少都是靠印象；

還有，除了這季初前20名，我後面會隨便挑幾個人來講講...

: 1) Domonic Brown, OF, Grade A:.337/.447/.554 in 83 minor league at-bats
: split between Triple-A Lehigh Valley and injury rehab with High-A Clearwater.
: Hitting .246/.335/.393 with 25 walks, 34 strikeouts in 183 major league
: at-bats. He'll be fine, he just needs to play.
: 評:好
不知道有沒有人在觀察小聯盟動態?

Dom最近很妙，球團把他排在固定"LF"先發，

嘛...理由倒也不難猜，現在右外野有了Pence，喇喔明年掰，剛好頂上去，

只是有個問題就是....

平常守慣的右外野都守的不怎麼樣了，何況是左外野呢，

雖說左外野守備難度較低，但剛轉不久還是常搞笑，

就最近的觀察，都是用"悲劇"來形容...連接個高飛球都讓人覺得很抖...

不過我還是必須強調:其實他很有金手套的"本錢"，

因為他有腿、有肩，剩下的就是判斷、傳球準度、接球方式等問題了...



: 2) Jonathan Singleton, 1B, Grade B+:  Hitting .285/.383/.422 with 10 homers, 57
: walks, 92 strikeouts in 344 at-bats between High-A Clearwater and High-A
: Lancaster following trade to Houston Astros. Lots of walks, power hasn't fully
: developed yet.
: 評:掰
: 3) Brody Colvin, RHP, Grade B+:   4.25 ERA with 62/34 K/BB in 89 innings for
: Clearwater, 93 hits, 1.47 GO/AO. Not a great year, ratios deteriorating from
: Low-A.
: 評:鳥

(搖頭)

請陳瑞振來罵一下好了。

其實他七月有回升的fu，但八月這兩場又被炸到天邊。

(不過球速倒是沒掉...)

: 4) Jarred Cosart, RHP, Grade B: Traded to Astros.  3.92 ERA with 79/43 K/BB,
: 1.65 GO/AO in 108 innings for Clearwater before the trade, 98 hits. Pitched six
: shutout innings in Double-A debut following the trade. Electric stuff, still
: learning how to use it.
: 評:掰
: 5) Trevor May, RHP, Grade B:  3.40 ERA with 169/55 K/BB in 124 innings for
: Clearwater, 99 hits, 0.64 GO/AO. Outstanding strikeout rate. Command still
: needs some work, but his stock continues to rise.
: 評:K or BB

很...奇妙，我只能這麼說...

所謂"自己玩"類型的投手，

如果不改善保送率，未來堪虞，

但有個好跡象是:逐月有改善。


: 6) Jesse Biddle, LHP, Grade B: Struggled in April but has been strong ever
: since, overall 3.20 ERA, 109/59 K/BB in 113 innings for Low-A Lakewood, 92
: hits, just three homers. Needs to cut down the walks some but overall a fine
: full-season debut.
: 評:OK

又是個奇妙的仁兄，

先從他的球速講起，

他的球速之前曾提過掉很慘，

但後來卻又傳出球速衝到97MPH(其實沒人相信)，

目前比較值得採信的說法是BA的消息，

那篇報導寫大概是"Low 90's"

最近狀況算是很不錯，只是很希望能把速球品質及球速穩定下來...

: 7) Sebastian Valle, C, Grade C+:  Hitting .303/.329/.428, five homers, 10
: walks, 63 strikeouts in 290 at-bats for Clearwater. 33% of runners caught,
: passed ball and error rates much better than last year. I don't like the low
: walk rate, but he's making progress, particularly on defense, and is just 21.
: 評:BB在哪?

又來個奇怪的傢伙，

最近讓人比較擔心的是:未來之星後狀況跌很慘，

目前OPS只剩下.760，

但是呢....又有哪裡怪怪的...

打擊率下滑、純長打率下滑，

可是...保送竟然"大幅"上升!?(會用""，是因為他本季296個打數裡，只出現"10"次保送)

明星賽前BB%約"1%"->157AB，2BB
    賽後BB%約"5%"
(好，我知道都很低....)

那也沒聽說他有傷痛，目前猜測是特意要練選球，

因為他是典型的球來就打，講誇張點就是Guerrero那種根本不選球的打者

(好，我知道拿他跟Guerrero比，有點像香腸比雞腿...)

但Guerrero還碰得到，這傢伙是常常揮空三振，

講到這裡，搞不好有人會覺得像是金鳥風扇哥或Howard，但這兩位凹保送功力其實都很好

目前我看到最像的就是這位:Marcus Thames

不過....他是捕手，而且抓盜壘功力及守備功力其實都不錯，光是這樣就很夠了，

目前還是被期待為Ruiz接班人(而且才21歲)。


: 8) Domingo Santana, OF, Grade C+:  Hitting .273/.345/.448 with seven homers, 28
: doubles, 23 walks, 114 strikeouts in 326 at-bats for Lakewood. Toolsy, just 19
: years old, but poor BB/K/AB ratio shows need for polish if he wants to succeed
: at higher levels.
: 評:天份

就...天份派

但是打的算蠻不錯的。

: 9) Vance Worley, RHP, Grade C+: Very successful in the majors: 2.35 ERA, 8-1
: record, 66/28 K/BB in 84 innings, 65 hits for the Phillies. I don't think he'll
: keep his ERA that low over a 200 inning season, but at worst he's going to be a
: fine inning-eater.
: 評:工具馬

大家都很熟

: 10) Julio Rodriguez, RHP, Grade C+: 14-6, 3.03 with a 119/48 K/BB in 122
: innings for Clearwater, 84 hits. He deserved more respect pre-season (Baseball
: America ranked him at number 25 in the system) and he should get it now.
: 評:沒愛

又來個怪咖orz

先來點八卦:

今年開季時，Clearwater先發五虎將是:

Colvin、Cosart、May、Pettibone、Rodriguez，

前四個人很要好，很愛一起打打鬧鬧跟講肖話，投球風格也比較相近，

但是Rodriguez就有點被鬼隱了...原因倒也不是難相處，

Pettibone曾提過，可能是國籍不同(Rodriguez是波多黎各人)，加上口袋深度有差，

所以彼此間有種隔閡...


回到球場上表現，理論上他在FSL的各數據排名(ERA第7，局數第5，WHIP第2，三振第2)

(還有個不怎麼重要的:目前15勝是FSL第1，也是費城人小聯盟投手最多的)

應該讓他的評價很高啊...

但光看球速就讓人感到杯具，

他的球速只有86~88MPH(跟Biddle那種有爭議的不同，是真的只有這樣...)，

一場比賽能上90MPH的頂多一兩顆，變化球就是靠一顆70~75MPH的大曲球，

而且說控球好，倒也不怎麼樣...

因為事實上，他都是靠塞的不錯的速球，在緊要時刻秀出大曲球讓打者揮空氣，

(杜福明的速差理論?)

也難怪數據一直不錯看，但就是不被看好...


不過我很佩服美帝養成功力，當年他17歲剛被選上時，球速多少?


82~84MPH


(....)


: 11) Cesar Hernandez, 2B, Grade C+: Hitting .252/.288/.320 with 18 steals, 18
: walks, 63 strikeouts in 341 at-bats for Clearwater. Effective glove and runs
: well, but lack of power and weak on-base skills hurt stock. Age 21, still has
: time to improve.
: 評:腿

不知道是不是因為一次跳兩級(從威廉波特到Clearwater)，今年打的有夠爛...

: 12) Justin De Fratus, RHP, Grade C+:  2.10 ERA with 43/14 K/BB in 34 innings
: for Double-A Reading, 4.50 ERA with 32/8 K/BB in 26 innings for Lehigh Valley,
: 2.09 combined GO/AO. Strikeouts/grounders combination should make him useful
: bullpen arm.
: 評:牛

在3A吃鱉ing(不過最近狀況有好轉)。

主要是被打擊率太高了點...

: 13) Josh Zeid, RHP, Grade C+: 5.91 ERA with 60/28 K/BB in 67 innings for
: Reading and Corpus Christi combined following trade to Houston, 71 hits. I
: think he's capable of better, but will end up in relief, not starting.
: 評:掰

: 14) J.C. Ramirez, RHP, Grade C+: 4.63 ERA with 69/42 K/BB in 117 innings for
: Reading, 112 hits. I keep thinking he will do something, but it never seems to
: happen, and the low strikeout rate is not a good sign.
: 評:鳥

每次看到他出賽都讓我搖頭，感覺很有天份啊-只是沒辦法轉成實績。

不如轉RP碰碰運氣算了。

: 15) Perci Garner, RHP, Grade C+: Has pitched just 3.2 innings for Williamsport
: in the New York-Penn League, fanning four, walking three. Obviously we need
: more data here.
: 評:???

正從威廉波特以RP身份緩慢起步Orz

: 16) Austin Hyatt, RHP, Grade C+:  3.76 ERA with 143/41 K/BB in 124 innings for
: Reading, 106 hits. Love the K/BB, K/IP, and H/IP, but he gives up a lot of fly
: balls and homers, and is already 25 years old.
: 評:球很容易飛出去

講過了(明天又要先發了)。

: 17) Jiwan James, OF, Grade C:  .281/.340/.389 with three homers, 31 walks, 98
: strikeouts, 22 steals in 416 at-bats for Clearwater. Still has remarkable
: tools, power has not developed yet. He has a very high ceiling. I'd give him a
: C+ at this point, high ceiling, still high risk.
: 評:天份

守備真的很殺，但也常被三振殺，

上個月打超好，八月到目前為止有點低潮。

: 18) Aaron Altherr, OF, Grade C: Just .211/.272/.272 in 147 at-bats for
: Lakewood. Sent down to Williamsport, hitting .280/.313/.435, seven walks, 33
: strikeouts, 14 steals in 168 at-bats. Like James, excellent tools but still
: unrefined.
: 評:天份

守備也超好，回威廉波特打小朋友打的蠻爽的。

(他一開始是在Lakewood，後來打太爛就被踢回威廉波特)

: 19) Leandro Castro, OF, Grade C:  .277/.304/.481 with 10 homers, five walks, 33
: strikeouts, 10 steals in 231 at-bats. See a pattern? Power, speed, horrible
: plate discipline. On DL since late June
: 評:BB在哪?

就保送這問題很頭大...

: 20) Matt Rizzotti, 1B, Grade C:  .290/.388/.506 with 20 homers, 64 walks, 104
: strikeouts in 393 at-bats for Reading. Have to like the power, but already 25
: years old.
: 評:老炮

誠心誠意地建議他轉隊。



隨便抓幾個人來看:


3A

Cody Overbeck(3B、1B):

打爆2A，但在3A被霸凌，而且通常都改站一壘。

(明年會是關鍵)


Carlos Rivero(3B):

從笑臉人流浪來費城人，卻打出點成績，

類似Overbeck，雖然長打力沒那麼誇張，但守備好很多，

最近因為霸茲進DL，被叫上3A，小樣本裡也是被殺很大。

(但他比Overbeck年輕個兩歲，現在才23歲)


Freddy Galvis(2B、SS):

我上次看到他美技的影片，彷彿看到Jimmy Rollins...

守備達人加腿哥，但打擊只算是管小槍，偶爾會變沙漠之鷹(2A時)，

目前在3A(小樣本)持續當沒選球沒炮瓦的小槍。


Michael Schwimer(RP):

沒愛沒機會(63.1IP 46H(4HR) 20BB 82SO WHIP1.04 ERA1.88)。

速球大概有92~95，主要是顆很殺的滑球(82~85)打天下。


Scott Mathieson(SP):

最近都當先發，今天來個7IP 4H(1HR) 8K的好表現，

球速還是很快，但是變化球還是不太行。


Mike Zagurski(RP):

3A霸主...


Phillippe Aumont(RP):

很有希望上來觀光(13.2IP 12H(0HR) 6BB 24SO WHIP1.32 ERA1.98)

球速在95上下，搭配一顆78~80的曲球，看過他出賽的都說:讚!

(最近開始分攤Closer工作)


Joe Savery(RP):

球速在90~93，主要是當左殺，看起來狀況不錯(也被期待拉上來投投看)。


Aaron Heilman(RP)(我不知道該不該列他...):

剛來時炸很兇，但最近狀況不差，

會列他是因為很多人都說他的變速、滑球都投的很好...有在梅子時期的fu

不過海公公...還是算了吧，有個Herndon，又有個力矩已經夠不爽了...


2A

Derrick Mitchell(CF):

2A主炮(17轟)，但有點老了(24歲)，

選球有點弱，但長打力很強(而且是CF)


Steve Susdorf(1B、LF、RF):

機槍(打擊率高達.339)，被形容是Dobbs類型的打者，一樣，有點老...(25歲)


Tyler Cloyd(SP):

今年異軍突起，跟去年比，簡直像是不同人，風格有點像Worley...但也是有點老(24歲)。


Michael Cisco(RP):

出DL、轉RP後狀況很不錯，球速也蠻快的(大概在93~95左右)。


Justin Friend(RP):

A+終結者、規則五從運動家撿來，雖然成績不錯，但很少關於他的討論= ="



A+

Darin Ruf(1B):

Clearwater主炮，但大概到此為止，不屬於Prospect等級的人...


Travis Mattair(3B):

以一個中斷一年沒打棒球的人來說，(1A跟A+總合).256/.316/.420算是很不錯的...

但以第二輪來看，還是希望能再更好，

不過今年也才22歲，依然值得養。

(話說他在A+長打力突然上升...不知道是不是長出來了)


David Buchana(SP):

今年主要在Lakewood出賽，最近剛升A+，

K功不強，也是投給你打，被比喻為Kendrick...


Jonathan Pettibone(SP):

Colvin勞賽，Pettibone可說是取代了他的地位，

只是他的球速也不出色(Low 90's)，

也是典型的"投給你打"投手...

(費城今年小聯盟先發特色就是這種-Worley、Cloyd、Buchana、Pettibone都是這類型)


A

Anthony Hewitt、Zach Collier:

嘆息，無語。

(六月時，我曾以為要長出來了，事後證明是曇花一現)

好啦，好歹Hewitt也扛了12發...


Garett Claypool(SP):

K哥之王(119.1IP，131K，聯盟第一)，

不過最近幾個月被打的有點慘...

比較特別的是:

他是前二十之外的少數速球派先發(球速大概在92~95)。



先隨便寫到這兒...

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