[分析] John Sickels:Top 20 prospects

[GY6 (HONDA)]

晚點回來再談談內容...不過我的感想就是:貧瘠農場...
(像斧頭幫或皇家農場都肥沃到讓人閃尿)

另外，關於明年的SS，目前有不少八卦，我個人感覺可信度較高的是:

讓Rollins進FA，萬一真的回不來，就讓Galvis頂上，

原因在於:
1.Rollins想要一張五年約，但打擊下滑(雖以SS來講還是不錯)+痛痛史，費城應該不會給
2.費城薪資吃緊，高層應該不會凱到願意付豪華稅...
3.Galvis在23A表現不錯
4.Galvis有手套，打擊再爛也應該不會像胡金龍那麼慘...
  (但目前絕對比Rollins鳥)
5.之前曾傳出費城要他別打冬聯，先回家休息，明年以百分之百的狀況參加春訓

另一件有趣的事，是底下提到的選秀方針，讓我想到:恰克喇嘛為什麼會離開?
目前都沒有什麼消息，但他曾抱怨過費城給資金給的很摳，
想在後段砸錢簽些高中生也沒輒，
而在中南美洲方面更是淒慘...
理念不合的狀況下，不如歸去。
(事實上真的摳到爆表...國聯payroll最高的隊伍在省這種錢Zzzzzz)


1) Trevor May, RHP, Grade B+:
I almost went with an A- here and may revise this. Command remains erratic,
but huge strikeout rate is a big positive and he's made progress with his
secondary pitches. Looks like a workhorse.
評:高三振率+第二球種有進步，但控球還是不太穩，工具馬一匹。
(按:在控球沒長好前，我對他還是有點悲觀...)


2) Jesse Biddle, LHP, Grade B+:
Not as overpowering as May currently, but has a high ceiling of his own and
can develop into a number two starter in my view. I'd like to see him lower
the walk rate, but overall he's doing just fine. Reports of improved
curveball are promising.
評:天花板很高，預計有二號先發實力。
(按:球速啊....現在真的只能靠曲球來拐打者)


3) Sebastian Valle, C, Grade B-:
Scouting reports remain more impressive than the numbers and his plate
discipline needs work, but he's got good potential on both sides of the ball
and is just 21.
評:選球選球選球
(按:我個人很喜歡他，不過上下半季成績差異很大...有點詭異)


4) Brody Colvin, RHP, Grade B-:
Went backwards in 2011, dogged by mechanical problems and a back injury, but
upside remains quite high and I will cut him some slack for now.
評:天花板+有問題的投球機制+背傷
(按:今年成績算有點倒楣，明年再看狀況吧)


5) Larry Greene, OF, Grade B-:
Huge power, although reports differ about how polished the rest of his bat is
and we have no pro data yet. Wanna dream? Think Ryan Howard with enough
mobility to play the outfield. Stock will shoot higher next year if that is
remotely accurate.
評:炮瓦魔人。I have a dream:外野版的Ryan Howard(三秒鐘到了，你醒了嗎?)
(按:不選天份腿哥，改找天份大炮，讓人既期待又怕受傷害...)

6) Justin De Fratus, RHP, Grade B-:
Grading relievers is always problematic, but he's overpowering and ready to
help now.
評:哞~~~


7) Phillippe Aumont, RHP, Grade B-: Command still needs some work, but between
Aumont and De Fratus there are two potential closers here.
評:哞~~~


8) Julio Rodriguez, RHP, Grade B-:
Scouting reports remain mixed and he doesn't have the physical upside of the
pitchers ahead of him, but his statistics are outstanding. This is not some
college guy tricking younger hitters: he didn't turn 21 until late August.
I'm a believer.
評:沒天花板。
(按:天啊!Sickels真是對他太好了，竟然有B耶...大部份都覺得升級後會吃屎吃很大)


9) Michael Schwimer, RHP, Grade C+:
Between Schwimer, De Fratus, and Aumont, the Phillies have plenty of
right-handed relief options. The others guys are younger so they rank a tad
ahead grade-wise.
評:哞~~~
(按:三頭右手牛一起討論，De Fratus跟Aumont比較被看好，前者有控球，
    後者有球速又有顆不錯的變化球->所以比較被期待是終結者的料，
     Schwimer完成度比較高，但大概就是堪用的程度而已...)

10) Maikel Franco, 3B, Grade C+:
His .287/.367/.411 line at Williamsport may not look that great, but his OPS
was 14 percent better than league average, he was just 18 years old, scouts
give him good reviews, and he has a sound glove. He could break through in a
big way in '12.
評:以他待的聯盟來說，成績其實很耐斯，而且他才18歲。
(按:私心看好，但先克服低層級的聯盟吧)


11) Roman Quinn, INF, Grade C+:
Speed demon, has some pop as well, intriguing second round pick. The obvious
comparison is Jimmy Rollins. We need to see how his tools pan out in actual
games, but his ceiling is quite high.
評:Rollins二號機?看他在職業棒球的表現吧!
(按:等明年再說吧)


12) Austin Wright, LHP, Grade C+:
This is an aggressive ranking but I'm playing a hunch here. I have been keeping
track of this guy since he was in high school in Illinois. Erratic in college,
he was excellent in his pro debut, with better-than-expected command of a
plus fastball and breaking ball. He's big, throws hard, threw strikes this year,
and the Phillies have helped similar pitchers succeed. If he maintains this
progress he'll rank quite highly next year.
評:進職棒後表現優異。
(按:一定是我以前唱衰他才表現的這麼好!)


13) Perci Garner, RHP, Grade C+:
High-ceiling arm from '10 draft, pitched well in limited action in the
New York-Penn League. Former quarterback is inexperienced for a college
pitcher, but impressive upside.
評:天花板。
(按:痛痛人)


14) Lisalberto Bonilla, RHP, Grade C+:
Excellent performance metrics in Low-A, doesn't burn radar guns but throws
strikes with fastball, slider, and changeup, keeps the ball down.
評:沒有火球，但各種球路都控的不錯。
(按:工具馬，跟樓下那位有點像)


15) Jon Pettibone, RHP, Grade C+:
Inning-eater type with good control of average stuff, fine year in High-A
although strikeout rates not that impressive. I have nothing objective to
back this up but I like him better than the numbers say I should.
評:工具馬。
(按:以他今年成績來看，評價這麼低實在有點過份...但他的天花板真的不高..
    90MPH左右的球速+不怎麼樣的變化球+低三振率，有點Kebdrick的fu...
    先看明年上2A會不會被看破手腳吧- -)


16) Austin Hyatt, RHP, Grade C+:
Another guy with so-so velocity, but has a terrific changeup and posted
excellent component ratios in Double-A. Older prospect at age 25, but another
one who could be a useful inning-eater.
評:鳥蛋球速，神樣變速。大概又是匹工具馬。
(按:要嘛大爆要嘛大殺，去牛棚又怕會一發擊沉，要先發又怕是一台發球ㄐ，
    可是高三振率+很威的變速，不用又好像很可惜...總之很難用...)


17) Freddy Galvis, SS, Grade C:
Everyone loves the glove but I remain skeptical about the bat. Other sources
will likely rank him higher, but he looks like a utility guy to me.
評:我總覺得只會是個工具人。
(按:呃...有這麼慘嗎....好歹也被期待是Rollins接班人耶...)


18) Tyler Greene, SS, Grade C:
Greene was just an 11th round pick but his tools are quite impressive, he
runs well, has power potential, shows strong throwing arm, has a chance to
remain at shortstop. Needs adjustments to his swing, but upside is considerable.
On pure tools he would rank as high as 12 but I want to see him above rookie
ball.
評:天份男，有腿有炮瓦(的潛力)有強肩，單論天份會排很前面。
(按:剛進職棒算打的不錯，明年持續觀察)


19) Mitchell Walding, SS, Grade C:
Another pick from 2011 draft, in the fifth round. Bat is highly-regarded but
he hasn't played yet, and faces a positional switch. Like Greene and Quinn,
his stock has the potential to be much higher a year from now.
評:又是個天份組。


20) Jiwan James, OF, Grade C:
The Phillies have lots of toolsy outfielders and James is my favorite of the
group for no particularly objective reason. Power hasn't developed but I'll
give him another year. Other tools types include Aaron Altherr, Zach Collier,
Kelly Dugan, Gauntlett Eldemire, Kyrell Hudson, and of course Anthony Hewitt.
All of these guys face uphill battles with the bat.
評:還是天份男...再給他一年試試吧....
(按:我已經沒啥信心了...現在看到他被K反而有種"理所當然"的感覺...
    究竟MADAO何時才能開花呢...)

21) Joe Savery, LHP, Grade C:
Looks like a nice LOOGY to me, but that's better than being an A-ball first
baseman or being released, which are his other options. Good salvage job here.
評:看起來只是個湊人數左投，但總比當個一壘手或被釋出來的好...
(按:請繼續保持，姑且不論未來如何，今年這種境遇恐怕棒球界也找不到幾個)


OTHERS: Aaron Altherr, Garett Claypool, RHP; Tyler Cloyd, RHP; Zach Collier,
OF; Kelly Dugan, OF; Gauntlett Eldemire, OF; Harold Garcia, 2B; Kenny Giles,
RHP; Tyson Gillies, OF; Cesar Hernandez, 2B, Ervis Manzanillo, LHP; Harold
Martinez, 3B; Bryan Morgado, LHP; Adam Morgan, LHP; Colton Murray, RHP; Mike
Nesseth, RHP; Cody Overbeck, 1B; Matt Rizzotti, 1B; Darin Ruf, 1B; Ethan
Stewart, LHP; Carlos Tocci, OF.



Everyone talks about how the Phillies love tools players on the hitting side
and physical pitchers on the mound, and they do focus on those things. But
there is more to the farm system than just the athletes. They also mix in
polished college players in the middle and later rounds most years, which
adds some depth to the system and gives the tools guys someone to learn from.
Although they don't dump huge sums into big-bonus Latin American lottery
tickets, they don't ignore the area and usually have a steady talent flow
from Venezuela and the Dominican.

I'm not really into Harold Garcia and Cesar Hernandez, but you can make a
case to rank them more highly than I do, depending on how you want to balance
offense and defense. I think they can all be fine utility players but I have
doubts they will hit enough to get beyond that.

Graduations and trades have thinned this system out, but there are still a
lot of things to like. Several of the Grade C guys are players from the 2011
draft who have higher potential but need to play, so this list could look
much stronger next year once we see how they pan out.  I'm not convinced that
any of the toolsy outfielders are going to amount to much, and they need to
start hitting or the new additions will pass them.

--
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◆ From: 111.252.72.165
→ SlamKai:貧瘠農場 該施肥了 0.0
推 Carreras:  鼻斗可以練成二號？別耍偶！除非他能練出狗拉文的控球
→ Carreras:  賈狄福丞相與吳下阿蒙可以當closer? 踹黍偶也不相信
推 ColbyRasmus:Quinn是速度腿哥啊，有80分
→ Carreras:  羅馬女王 XD~  拉茲太可怕  每隊他都熟  <(_ _)>
推 ColbyRasmus:有80分工具的人不多啊 XD
→ Carreras: 沒差啦  通常腿哥都是上不了壘包的
→ Carreras:   所以  還是不臍不帶  免受商害 :D~~~
→ chihlanren:拒愛>////////<