[翻譯] Phillies-Reds NLDS Preview: Starting Eight

[jerrt (上班都在逛PTT)]

這篇比較長,不過算是可讀性比較好的文章
裡面有比較多精闢的分析

Phillies-Reds NLDS Preview: Starting Eight
費城紅人NLDS賽前分析：先發8人

It took all 162 games of the regular season, but the Phillies finally found
their opponent for the National League Division Series: the Cincinnati Reds.
They led the NL in offense, but finished last among the four playoff
contestants in their runs-allowed average. Their pitching staff isn’t as
deep as the Phillies’ but is nonetheless formidable, thanks in part to the
third-best defense as rated by UZR. Still, the Reds are going to try to win
the series by mashing the baseball. First baseman Joey Votto led the league
in wOBA and Scott Rolen had the second-highest wOBA among third basemen.

終於,經過了162場漫長的等待,費城終於盼到了他們在NLDS的對手：辛辛那提紅人.紅人隊
有著傲視國聯的進攻數據,但相對來說他們的投手ERA卻是國聯季後賽4隊裡面最差的.紅人
沒有如費城人一般的投手深度,但感謝守備的幫忙(UZR全MLB排名第三),紅人的投手戰力仍
然有可觀的投手戰力.當然,紅人依舊會設法贏得這個系列賽.一壘手Joy Votto在wOBA上領
先全MLB,而三壘手Scott Rolen的wOBA在全三壘手中排名第二.

How do the Reds compare to the Phillies? Let’s dig into the stats.

至於紅人與費城相比較到底如何呢？讓我們由數據上來看看：

Catcher

Assuming Carlos Ruiz is healthy (he was hit by a pitch in yesterday afternoon
’s regular season finale), he should catch every game of the playoffs. He
had an exceptional offensive year, finishing with a near-.400 on-base
percentage with decent power (.447 SLG). Ruiz is a very intelligent hitter,
very aware of the ins and outs of hitting eighth in the batting order — he
is content to take those unintentional-intentional walks. Aside from his
great success at the plate in 2010, Ruiz is known for two other items:
blocking pitches in the dirt and coming up huge in October (or, as it is more
affectionately called in Philadelphia, Choochtober).

假如Ruiz身體健康的話,他應該會蹲補今年每一場的季後賽(史耐德表示：哭哭..).他今年
的火力表現令人經驗(OBS接近4成,SLG為.447),他也是個很聰明的打者,身處投手前面的棒
次,他並不會選擇強攻而錯失因BB而帶來的上壘機會.除此之外,Ruiz為人樂道的還有另外兩
項優點：擋球和每到10月就會上火星去觀光(在費城,他被戲稱為Choochtober)

In mid-June, I analyzed Ruiz’s ability to prevent and punish his opponents’
 running game, concluding that he is about average in that regard. However,
Dan Turkenkopf of Beyond the Box Score found that Ruiz is among the best in
the game at blocking pitches in the dirt. With pitchers like Jose Contreras
(with the tumbling splitter) and Brad Lidge (slider), this is a critical
skill necessary for survival late in games. Additionally, Ruiz is anecdotally
highly regarded for his ability to call games and handle a pitching staff.
Most pitchers who have passed through Philadelphia during Ruiz’s tenure have
had nothing but great things to say about him.

早在今年六月中,我就曾經指出Ruiz是一個高於防守平均的捕手.不過,Ruiz也是目前全MLB
裡最會擋球的捕手.當你的陣中有著如老康(Splitter)或是無力矩(Slider)型的投手時,有
個會擋球的捕手在比賽晚期便會顯得更為珍貴.另外,Ruiz在配球方面也是讓人放心,跟他合作
過的投手都只有一個感想：讚啦!!

The Reds have two catchers, Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan, that split time
about 60/40 (as opposed to the 75/25 split between Ruiz and Brian Schneider).
Hernandez and Hanigan are about equal with the bat, but Hanigan possesses
much better plate discipline as he walks about five percent more often.
Hanigan’s offensive capabilities are similar to Ruiz: high batting average,
good on-base skills, occasional power. Hanigan’s platoon split is much wider
than Hernandez’s: 182 points of OPS as opposed to 30 in favor of left-handed
pitching.

另外一方面紅人隊上有兩個捕手,Ramon Hernandez 和 Ryan Hanlgan(他們出賽的時間約為
60:40, Ruiz和史耐德則為75:25).兩位捕手的打擊表現相去不遠,不過Hanigan比較有耐心(
約多出5%的保送),Hanigan的打擊跟Ruiz很類似：高打擊率,高上壘率,偶而會出現長打.不
過Hanigan比起Hernandez來說更擅於打左投.

As I don’t follow the Reds as closely as the Phillies, I can’t speak to any
anecdotal evidence that Hernandez and Hanigan are comparable to Ruiz in terms
of calling a game and handling a pitching staff. Hopefully some Reds fans and
bloggers can stop by and provide some analysis there. But overall, I think
the catchers are a push — neither side has a clear advantage.

嚴格來說,我對紅人的狀況並沒有像費城人那般的清楚.但就我的觀點來說,兩邊在捕手這一
塊目前看起來算是戰成平手.

First Base

It’s the 2006 NL MVP against, possibly, the 2010 NL MVP.

這是場2006國聯MVP與可能是2010國聯MVP的對決.

Howard’s 2010 is a disappointment. Although he missed two weeks, his numbers
would still be down nonetheless. His ISO declined 60 points from last season,
a sign Phillies fans do not want to see. Late in games, opposing managers
bring in left-handed relievers to throw him breaking pitches low and away and
fastballs up. Howard has given in much more than he had in previous years —
 his swing rate at pitches outside the zone was six percent higher than his
career average and his swing rate at pitches inside the zone was seven
percent lower than his career average. Howard isn’t garbage against lefties
but there is a definitive blueprint to neutralize him. Pitchers that adhere
to that blueprint usually have success.

瞎眼猴有個令人失望的2010球季(猴子：老子就是簽了肥約就擺爛,怎麼樣~~哼),雖然他缺
席了2個禮拜,但就算如此他的成績仍然很爛!!與去年相比,他的ISO掉了60點,這可不是費城
迷想要看到的結果.當比賽來到後半段,對方總會叫上南面爪來對付他.策略很簡單,外角低
變化球,內角High fast ball,就這樣,任何人只要遵循這個簡單的方程式同常都可以順利的
解決掉瞎眼猴.本季他揮擊壞球的比例成長了6%,而揮擊好球的機率則掉了7%(與生涯成績相
比)

Joey Votto, meanwhile, appears to have no weakness. He hits left-handers and
he hits right-handers. He hits four-seamers, sinkers, cutters, sliders,
curves, change-ups, and splitters. He hits at home and he hits on the road.
He hits early in games and he hits late in games.

另外一方面,Joey Votto,基本上就是無死角.管你是RHP或是LHP,管你投的是四縫線,伸卡,
卡特,滑球,變速球,曲球還是指叉球,管你是主場還是客場,管你是球賽剛開始還是九局下半
他就是打的到,而且打的遠....(有沒有這麼威...@@")

He does appear to have one very minor flaw, though: he hits worse against
ground ball pitchers. Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt both induce an
above-average amount of ground balls: 51 and 49.5 percent, respectively.
Additionally, Ryan Madson can be found at 50.5 percent and J.C. Romero — who
should be called upon for this match-up several times — is over 60 percent.

雖然說他沒有啥大缺點,但是他對滾地球型的投手打的不好(笨Ken...?!),而雙Roy正好都算
是這型的投手(Doc的滾飛比為51%,推土機是49.5%),另外咩的神也有50.5%.而大家最有可能
看到的對決戲碼：J.C.Romero則超過了60%.

Aside from having a lethal bat, Votto is an adequate fielder, receiving good
marks from UZR. Howard, on the other hand, is graded as a sub-par fielder.
However, the difference of about 7 UZR/150 between the two over their careers
could be negligible given the uncertainty around the data.

Joey Votto不僅打的好,守備也不錯(猴兒你自盡吧,領那個錢打這種成績...),但兩者的UZR
差距還是在誤差範圍內,可以忽略不計.

The advantage here clearly goes to the Reds.

誰佔優勢？還用說嘛？當然是費城...(誤)

Second Base

Chase Utley is clearly the best all-around second baseman in baseball. Over
the last three years, he leads in both wOBA (.392, 19 points higher than the
runner-up Dustin Pedroia) and UZR/150 (14.9, three points higher than
runner-up Mark Ellis). In the same period of time, Brandon Phillips has a
.333 wOBA and 8.8 UZR/150.

忍者當然是目前全宇宙最好的二壘手.在過去三年,他在wOBA(.392)上領先了Pedroia 19%,U
ZR(14.9)則領先了Mark Ellis 3%,同個時期飛利浦的成績是.333以及8.8.

忍者：拜託,光是帥氣度我就先贏100分了好嘛,人家Pedroia是禿頭捏~~揪瞇>.^

Utley is also a better base-stealer than Phillips. In 508 PA, Utley stole 13
bases in 15 attempts (87 percent). Phillips stole 16 in 28 attempts (57
percent). However, Phillips is better at advancing on the bases on balls put
in play as shown by the metrics in the table below.

既然是忍者,自然跑的比人家快,盜壘成功率是87,飛利浦則是57.不過飛利浦倒是一個比較
好的跑壘者.

As with first base, there is no debate which team has the advantage here,
only this time the Phillies have the upper hand.

結論：費城勝出(無誤)

Third Base

Ah, finally a position with a closer race. Unfortunately, Placido Polanco is
dealing with an elbow that will require surgery once the season is complete.
Although he finished the season hitting .316 in the last ten games, he had
only hit .235 since August 18. At one point he was a legitimate contender for
the NL batting title, but his slump — likely due to his elbow — put the
kibosh on that. Overall, he hits around the league average without much power.

在三壘的位置上則是競爭激烈.只可惜目前Polanco目前的手肘有傷.雖說他本季最後10場交
出了.316的打擊率,但事實上他在八月過後只打出了.235的成績.總體來說,他是個聯盟平均
的打擊者,只是少了點Power.

Once believed to be the biggest question mark for the Phillies going into
2010, Polanco’s defense has surprised many. Critics, including myself, were
unsure if he possessed the arm strength to succeed at the hot corner. He
quickly squelched any concern in that area as his 10.6 UZR/150 indicates.
(Insert another caveat about UZR’s unreliability within just one season.) He
did receive a poor grade in terms of range, which is not surprising.

但是Polanco的守備卻是打破眾人季前的預測,好的嚇人(UZR為10.6),雖說他的守備範圍相
對不大,但並不意外.

Scott Rolen, like Polanco, has had to deal with some aches and pains
throughout the year. More recently, it’s been an amalgamation of issues but
he should be healthy enough to contribute during the post-season. Along with
beating Polly’s UZR/150 score (with much better range), Rolen finished with
the second-best wOBA (.369) among NL third basemen, more than 40 points
higher than Polanco.

Rolen本季也是傷痛不斷,不過一般預期他可以打季後賽,且提供全國聯第二高wOBA的火力輸
出,足足比Polanco高了40點.

Neither are base-running threats although Polanco is a perfect 5-for-5 on the
year while Rolen is 1-for-3. The Reds get the advantage here — Rolen is
simply better on all counts.

雖然說Polanco盜壘的成績比較好看(5-5)(Rolen則是1-3),但怎麼看紅人都是在三壘佔優勢.

Shortstop

Although Jimmy Rollins spent half the season dealing with two calf strains
and a thigh strain, his numbers had been in decline anyway. From 2004-08, his
wOBA fell between .341 and .378. The last two years, it’s been .316 and .318
respectively. His power is way down this year — his .133 ISO is his lowest
since 2003. He still managed to be efficient on the bases, stealing 17 bases
in 18 attempts (94 percent). In 21 games between July 17 and August 20, he
stole 12 bases in as many attempts. Since then, he’s attempted only three
steals in 25 games. Rollins still received a good grade from UZR on all
counts except avoiding errors — in nearly half the innings, he matched his
errors total from last year with six.

雖說音樂才子今年傷痛不斷,但仍然不能掩蓋他逐年下滑的成績.04-08年他的wOBA從.378跌
到.341,在過去兩年更慘,只有.316跟.318.今年他的長打火力也退化了,.133的ISO是從03年
以來最差的成績.所以,他只剩腿了,所幸,他的速度還是不錯,今年盜壘成功了17次(94%的成
功率).另外,他的守備功力仍在.
簡單感想：只剩腿跟守備的J-Ro?!腿哥內野版？

The Reds have Orlando Cabrera, who is a rich man’s Wilson Valdez. In fact,
Valdez put up a slightly better OPS this season and defended just as well.
Cabrera is the one weak spot in the Reds’ lineup among the eight position
players.

紅人的SS是Orlando Cabrera,簡單一句話,Valdez都比他強.

A healthy Rollins gives the Phillies a legitimate advantage here. Rollins at
around 75% gives them a slight advantage.

結論：完全版的J-Ro不用說當然佔有優勢,但就算是非完全版的Rollins也還是比紅人強.
感想：問題是我們現在看到的這個是幼幼版的ㄝ...

Left Field

Rumors of Raul Ibanez‘s demise may have been greatly exaggerated. Although
he finished with his worst offensive showing since 2003, he wasn’t all that
far away from his production in recent years. He lost a bit of power but has
surged recently, hitting for a 1.051 OPS since September 6. With a platoon
split of nearly 100 points of OPS in 2010, Dusty Baker may be more willing to
leave Arthur Rhodes in to face Ibanez after dealing with Utley and Howard,
meaning that Jayson Werth may get a few extra at-bats against southpaws.
Defensively, Ibanez lacks range and has a mediocre arm, which comes as no
surprise to Phillies fans.

關於啦歐的退化也許大家都想的太嚴重了.沒錯,今年他的確打出了自03球季以來的新低點,
但仔細分析起來其實他的火力輸出離他這幾年的平均其實相去不遠.他今年的長打有點衰退
但從9月6號開始似乎有回神的趨勢(1.051 OPS).不過他嚴重的恐左,對左投的OPS比右投足
足少了100.因此,貝克街有可能讓Arthur Rhodes在面對忍者及瞎眼猴後繼續留在場上對付
啦歐,這也代表了夾在中間的Edge有機會多面對幾次南面爪.另外,大家都知道啦歐的守備很
爛,所以,也沒啥好多說的.

Jonny Gomes is similar to Ibanez in a lot of ways. He is not as good in terms
of plate discipline, but has a similar offensive output from the right side.
Like Ibanez, he has a deep platoon split (nearly 140 points of OPS) with a
disadvantage against right-handers. With only two left-handed hitters in the
starting lineup, the Reds will likely have Rolen and Gomes hitting
back-to-back. This becomes a very important part of the batting order for
Jose Contreras and Ryan Madson.

至於Jonny Gomes的情況則與啦歐類似,不過他的選球並不像啦歐一樣好.另外,他嚴重恐右,
面對右投手與左投手的OPS相差了將近140點,面對陣中只有兩名左打的狀況,紅人極有可能
將Gomes給排在Rolen之後.這樣的排法對於老康還有咩的神來說是很重要的.

Gomes is also terrible in the field, even worse than Ibanez. His career
UZR/150 at any outfield position is -18. Slight advantage to the Phillies,
more if they pepper left field with batted balls.

Gomes的守備也很鳥,甚至比啦歐更差(大驚??!!),他的生涯UZR為-18.因此在左外野手這方
面,費城還是稍微佔了一點點的優勢.

Center Field

Shane Victorino and Drew Stubbs is about as close a battle between two
players that you can get. They are separated by just one one-thousandth of a
point in wOBA with nearly equivalent OBP and SLG. Victorino stole 34 bases in
39 attempts (87 percent) while Stubbs stole 29 in 35 attempts (83 percent).
Even defensively, they are very similar.

夏威夷人跟Drew Stubbs是極為相似的兩個球員.他們的wOBA只差了千分之一,另外OBP以及S
LG則近乎平手,夏威夷今年盜壘成績為34-39(87% success),Stubbs則是29-35(83% success
).甚至在防守上,兩個人也一樣好.

結論：兩邊在CF這塊打成平手.

Right Field

Jayson Werth, a soon-to-be free agent, has been the Phillies’ most potent
offensive weapon throughout the 2010 season. He finished with the sixth-best
wOBA in the National League, trailing fifth-place Matt Holliday .398 to .396.
Werth has exceptional plate discipline, consistently working deep counts. In
each of the past two seasons, he led the NL in pitches per plate appearance
with 4.5 in ’09 and 4.3 in ’10.

即將成為FA的Edge(淚目)是費城2010球季打擊表現最好的球員.他的wOBA排名全國聯第六,
輸給第五名的假日一點點(.398對上.396).他也是出了名的有耐心,在過去兩個球季,他在每
打席可以看到4.5('09)與4.3('10)個球,都領先國聯.

Throughout the season, though, Werth was dogged by criticism of his failure
with runners in scoring position — particularly with two outs. Although he
had better production in recent weeks in those situations, he still finished
the season with lackluster numbers. Fortunately though, those numbers come in
small sample sizes and are not indicative of his skill.

但Edge最為人詬病的的卻是他在RISP的打擊很糟糕,尤其在兩出局後,儘管最近幾週有比較
好轉,但仍掩蓋不了這個缺點.幸好,這個數據來自比較小的樣本,並不足以真的代表他在RIS
P的時候真的打不好.

Surprisingly, Werth has a reverse platoon split —  he hit better against
right-handers than left-handers in 2010: .932 to .878 in terms of OPS. He’s
also a base running threat, stealing 53 bases in 60 attempts (88 percent)
since the start of the 2008 season.

令人驚訝的,Edge打右投手打的比左投手來的有心得:0.923對0.878(OPS),而他也能跑,自08
年後他累積的盜壘成績為53-60(88%)

Defensively, Werth hasn’t graded as well as he did last year but he still
has one of the best outfield arms in baseball. While that may not make up for
his odd routes to fly balls, it is definitely a factor that will stick in the
mind of the Reds’ coaching staff and the base runners.

在防守上,他並沒有表現的跟去年一樣好.儘管如此,他的強肩還是會給紅人的跑者和教練帶
來一定的嚇阻力,雖說他有時候對於飛球路徑的掌控不佳.

On the other side, the Reds have their own offensive threat in right field in
Jay Bruce. He is no Werth but his .360 wOBA is certainly respectable. Like
Werth, Bruce has a reverse platoon split of about 80 points in OPS. It’s a
drastic improvement from 2009 when he had a .180 OPS platoon split favoring
right-handers. Defensively, Bruce is regarded highly with an 11.4 UZR/150 in
nearly 2,600 career defensive innings in right field.

另外一方面,紅人的Jay Bruce也不容小覷.他的wOBA為.360,雖然不如Edge,但也夠嗆的了.
就像Edge一樣,Jay打左投也比打右投來的有心得(OPS差距為80點),不過相對09年來說,這已
經進步非常多了(09差距為180).Jay同時也是一個很好的防守者,生涯UZR為11.4.

Slight edge goes to the Phillies in right field.

結論：費城右外野稍微強一點點.

Summary

Catcher: Push
First base: Reds
Second base: Phillies
Third base: Reds
Shortstop: Phillies
Left field: Phillies
Center field: Push
Right field: Phillies

呼呼...終於翻完了...有夠長...Orz



--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) 
◆ From: 70.132.116.81
推 GY6:我猜是CRASHBURN ALLEY那篇(嗯...投手組的分析也出現囉XD)
推 thief50429:2位半夜還不睡阿,擰走.....
推 thief50429:看到幼幼版的羅林斯,我笑太大聲了 掩面
→ jerrt:小弟這邊剛好白天啦...XD
→ jerrt:居歪說的投手那邊我還沒看,有看到在來翻吧~~
推 GY6:http://tinyurl.com/26m2cy4 (遞) 快翻(逃)
→ GY6:其實我倒覺得投手反而不太需要翻...畢竟大家應該看到快吐了...
→ GY6:(這是能進季後賽的三把關鍵鑰匙啊...)
推 thief50429:洋基公佈季後名單了,瓦哥沒帶耶,咱家的公怖了嗎?
→ thief50429:我真的 真的 真的不想看到白葉子(總覺得有他 抖
推 GY6:還沒，最新的消息是從Matt Gelb跟 David Hale來的，老番顛還是
→ GY6:不公佈(八成是怕公佈瞬間被眾家費城記者海扁)
推 thief50429:鏟子準備好了....扁完 抬去埋剛好
→ jerrt:投手那篇我快速的review過了一遍,基本上跟上一篇內容沒差多
→ jerrt:少,那就偷懶不翻啦~~~XD
推 LsVCheN:大推XD