作者SlamKai (Calm Violence)
看板Phillies
標題Re: [閒聊] 2012 Phillies Players Projected
時間Sun Nov 18 11:30:40 2012
結束2012球季後，
讓我們看一下結果與當時預測的差距有多少呢。
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Rank 1)
Roy Halladay︰ An annual Cy Young favorite until he proves otherwise
Ｗ Ｌ SV IP Ｈ BB Ｋ ERA WHIP
Projected 19 11 0 228 213 34 207 2.49 1.08
2012 11 8 0 156 155 36 132 4.49 1.22
Rank 2)
Cliff Lee︰ League's most overqualified No. 2 belongs in top tier
Ｗ Ｌ SV IP Ｈ BB Ｋ ERA WHIP
Projected 16 9 0 230 201 46 218 2.47 1.07
2012 6 9 0 211 207 28 207 3.16 1.11
Rank 3)
Cole Hamels︰ Would be a No. 1 on most staffs
Ｗ Ｌ SV IP Ｈ BB Ｋ ERA WHIP
Projected 16 10 0 220 191 50 200 2.78 1.10
2012 17 6 0 215 190 52 216 3.05 1.12
Rank 4)
Hunter Pence︰ Career year possible in Phillies lineup
AB AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG OPS
Projected 590 .302 90 25 100 8 .366 .505 .871
2012 440 .271 59 17 59 4 .336 .447 .784
Rank 5)
Jimmy Rollins︰ Age and injury risk,
but skills and production are still there
AB AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG OPS
Projected 509 .267 78 13 59 27 .332 .403 .734
2012 632 .250 102 23 68 30 .316 .427 .743
Rank 6)
Jonathan Papelbon︰ Expect top-notch all-around numbers
from the Phillies' new closer
Ｗ Ｌ SV IP Ｈ BB Ｋ ERA WHIP
Projected 3 1 41 65.2 54 15 82 3.02 1.05
2012 5 6 38 70 56 18 92 2.44 1.05
Rank 7)
Shane Victorino︰ Consistent producer no matter where
in the lineup he hits
AB AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG OPS
Projected 575 .282 96 18 62 24 .358 .473 .831
2012 387 .261 46 9 40 24 .324 .401 .724
Rank 8)
Chase Utley︰ Injuries have ushered in decline,
but still a force when playing
AB AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG OPS
Projected 385 .281 61 16 57 15 .363 .494 .857
2012 301 .256 48 11 45 11 .365 .429 .793
Rank 9)
Ryan Howard︰Likely to begin season on DL
AB AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG OPS
Projected 368 .255 54 22 77 0 .344 .489 .834
2012 260 .219 28 14 56 0 .295 .423 .718
Rank 10)
Vance Worley︰ Don't overlook him, despite rotation counterparts
Ｗ Ｌ SV IP Ｈ BB Ｋ ERA WHIP
Projected 11 8 0 169 172 48 144 3.51 1.30
2012 6 9 0 133 154 47 107 4.20 1.51
Rank 11)
John Mayberry︰ Big man with power and speed -- a lot to like here
AB AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG OPS
Projected 400 .263 48 19 58 10 .330 .470 .800
2012 441 .245 53 14 46 1 .301 .395 .695
Rank 12)
Carlos Ruiz︰ Modest contributions in four categories
not enough for standard mixers
AB AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG OPS
Projected 433 .268 50 7 43 1 .344 .374 .718
2012 372 .325 56 16 68 4 .394 .540 .935
Rank 13)
Placido Polanco︰ Not nearly enough power for
a mixed-league cornerman
AB AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG OPS
Projected 410 .261 39 4 41 2 .311 .320 .631
2012 303 .257 28 2 19 0 .302 .327 .629
Rank 14)
Ty Wigginton︰ Reliable power source has multi-position eligibility
AB AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG OPS
Projected 433 .249 57 18 64 2 .319 .416 .734
2012 315 .235 40 11 43 1 .314 .375 .688
Rank 15)
Domonic Brown︰ Post-hype sleeper likel to begin season in Minors
AB AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG OPS
Projected 273 .271 36 11 34 6 .321 .451 .771
2012 187 .235 21 5 26 0 .316 .396 .712
Rank 16)
Joe Blanton︰ Has some value in NL-onlys, but little else
Ｗ Ｌ SV IP Ｈ BB Ｋ ERA WHIP
Projected 7 12 0 172 180 44 116 4.19 1.30
2012 8 9 0 133 141 18 115 4.59 1.19
Rank 17)
Juan Pierre︰ Steadily losing value as his speed declines
AB AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG OPS
Projected 235 .272 33 1 17 17 .327 .332 .659
2012 394 .307 59 1 25 37 .351 .371 .721
Rank 18)
Antonio Bastardo︰ Value limited to NL-only leagues
barring Papelbon injury
Ｗ Ｌ SV IP Ｈ BB Ｋ ERA WHIP
Projected 4 3 0 56 41 26 64 3.21 1.20
2012 2 5 1 52 40 26 81 4.33 1.26
Rank 19)
Laynce Nix︰ Likely to begin season platooning in left field
AB AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG OPS
Projected 270 .259 32 13 36 1 .310 .474 .784
2012 114 .246 13 3 16 0 .315 .412 .727
Rank 20)
Brian Schneider︰ Veteran backstop unlikely to see
many at-bats in 2012
AB AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG OPS
Projected 125 .208 15 2 12 0 .288 .288 .576
2012 89 .225 9 2 7 0 .289 .348 .637
Rank 21)
Joel Pineiro︰ Groundball rates have plunged three years running
Ｗ Ｌ SV IP Ｈ BB Ｋ ERA WHIP
Projected 6 9 0 139 156 32 72 4.21 1.35
2012 --------------------------------------------
Rank 22)
Jim Thome︰ Move to NL hurts his value
AB AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG OPS
Projected 222 .243 26 13 40 0 .359 .473 .832
2012 62 .242 9 5 15 0 .338 .516 .854
Rank 23)
Dontrelle Willis︰ Well-traveled lefty will try his hand in relief
Ｗ Ｌ SV IP Ｈ BB Ｋ ERA WHIP
Projected 5 6 0 90 92 40 60 4.60 1.47
2012 --------------------------------------------
Rank 24)
Kyle Kendrick︰ Will have to settle for spot starts in Philly
Ｗ Ｌ SV IP Ｈ BB Ｋ ERA WHIP
Projected 5 7 0 122 140 32 57 4.13 1.41
2012 11 12 0 159 154 49 116 3.90 1.27
Rank 25)
Chad Qualls︰ Disastrous '10 clearly a fluke
Ｗ Ｌ SV IP Ｈ BB Ｋ ERA WHIP
Projected 2 4 0 68 69 18 46 3.71 1.28
2012 1 1 0 31 39 9 19 4.60 1.53
Rank 26)
Michael Martinez︰ Utility man figures to find ABs on aging team
AB AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG OPS
Projected 241 .220 28 3 25 4 .274 .299 .573
2012 115 .174 10 2 7 0 .208 .252 .461
Rank 27)
Jose Contreras︰ Hazy health status clouds his future
Ｗ Ｌ SV IP Ｈ BB Ｋ ERA WHIP
Projected 1 1 0 35 36 15 29 4.11 1.46
2012 1 0 0 13.2 13 3 15 5.27 1.17
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打者方面Ruiz與Pierre打出超出預期的水準，
J-Ro交出差不多的成績，其餘傷兵與小將大致都不如預期。
投手方面黑魔使、寶貝碰、KK38、布蘭小胖等是少數的亮點。
整體而言，季前眾所矚目的費城人整季下來受到嚴重的傷兵困擾，
最後僅繳出5成勝率勉強及格的成績單。
希望2013會更好!
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 111.249.118.7
※ 編輯: SlamKai 來自: 111.249.118.7 (11/18 11:43)
推 GroveStreet:小李的勝場數整整少了10場...... 11/18 11:39
推 leoturkey:預測果然就是預測XD 11/18 12:18
推 CCfss: 寶貝碰真是出乎意料... 11/19 00:58
推 JuanPierre01:那個...附上年薪再去比較 會不會更好啊XD 11/19 22:22
推 thief87:5 11/19 23:26
→ Carreras: 聖僧 您蒲團坐久了 皮又在癢了齁 ... 11/19 23:29
推 LsVCheN: XDD 11/20 08:21
> -------------------------------------------------------------------------- <
作者: afulet (成功．阿弗雷特) 看板: Phillies
標題: Re: [閒聊] 2012 Phillies Players Projected
時間: Tue Nov 20 21:38:49 2012
※ 引述《SlamKai (Calm Violence)》之銘言：
Rank 1)
Roy Halladay︰ An annual Cy Young favorite until he proves otherwise
Ｗ Ｌ SV IP Ｈ BB Ｋ ERA WHIP
Projected 19 11 0 228 213 34 207 2.49 1.08
2012 11 8 0 156 155 36 132 4.49 1.22
本人愚笨沒甚麼料，因為特別迷Doc而加入PHILLIES大家族
想拋磚引玉討論一下今年Doc的狀況
近七年 (29歲~35歲) 的成績
Year ERA IP ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB 附註
2006 3.19 220 143 1.1 8.5 0.8 1.4 5.4 3.88 CYA-3
2007 3.71 225.1 121
1.243 9.3 0.6 1.9 5.6
2.9 CYA-5
2008 2.78 246 152 1.053 8 0.7 1.4 7.5 5.28 CYA-2
2009 2.79 239 159 1.126 8.8 0.8 1.3 7.8 5.94 CYA-5
2010 2.44 250.2 167 1.041 8.3 0.9 1.1 7.9 7.3 CYA-1
2011 2.35 233.2 163 1.04 8 0.4 1.3 8.5 6.29 CYA-2
2012
4.49 156.1 89 1.222 8.9 1 2.1 7.6
3.67 ---
(
倒數一、
倒數二)
今年的HR/9是1，是去年的兩倍以上
雖然說2010奪CYA那年HR/9是0.9，也算逼近1了
但那年有非常低的BB/9，每九局只送出1.1個BB
不過今年BB/9卻是2.1，近年相對的最高，令人擔憂控球不再鬼神
控球，這是否是今年ERA爆增的主要原因？
ps 不知道怎麼用BR查平均球速＆球種配球比
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2010 MLB PostSeason NLDS Game 1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 H R E
Cincinnati Reds 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Roy Halladay 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 0
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 183.5.69.128
推 SlamKai:2013會更好! 11/20 21:50
推 GroveStreet:Phillies加油~~~!!! 11/20 22:40
推 oralboralb:可以用fangraphs查啊 11/21 00:11
→ maxspeed150:球種資料在fangraphs 11/21 19:36
→ afulet:感謝指點!! 原來有這麼好用的網站 11/21 23:24