[外電] Hollinger's Team Forecast: Detroit Pistons

[pennymarcus (De-troit Basketball)]

John Hollinger分析上季的活塞 預測本季的活塞

http://tinyurl.com/4zams7

By John Hollinger ESPN.com

2007-08 Recap

It seems that the more things change in Detroit, the more they stay the same.

Each of the past three seasons began with the Pistons vowing that this time
it would be different: They would play with more urgency in the playoffs;
Rasheed Wallace wouldn't melt down at inappropriate times; they would regain
the title they won so impressively in 2004.
每年都說會不一樣，Sheed不會在不適當的時候自我溶解，他們會再拿下冠軍。

Each year, the Pistons glided through the regular season with nary an injury
while posting one of the best records in basketball, and cruised into the
conference finals looking like a legitimate championship contender.
每年季賽都沒傷兵，拿下聯盟最佳的戰績之一，看起來很像冠軍。

And each year, their season has ended with a Game 6 defeat in the conference
finals. Last season was the first of the three in which they weren't favored,
and in some respects that might have been the most worrying: This time,
nobody was surprised when Detroit bowed out.
每年都在分區冠軍第六戰結束。去年是唯一不被看好的一年，但這次沒人感到意外了。

Of course, nobody was surprised that they were in the conference finals
either -- probably because it was their sixth straight appearance, a
jaw-dropping standard of excellence that has been given too little credit
because only one resulted in a championship. No, they don't have the rings,
but the Pistons are rapidly becoming the Atlanta Braves of basketball,
establishing a remarkable feat of year-to-year consistency.
只能拿冠軍，所以大家給予的肯定太少了。活塞也愈來愈像籃球界的亞特蘭大勇士隊。

Last season the formula for pre-May success was a familiar one -- a
slow-paced, high-efficiency team that didn't screw up, shot lots of jumpers
and played great defense.
上季五月前活塞的勝利方程式還是一樣的-慢速高效率的球隊，很多跳投，而且防守非常
優異。

Detroit ranked fourth in defensive efficiency, and as a unit it has lost
surprisingly little since four-time Defensive Player of the Year Ben Wallace
departed two seasons ago. The only difference from the Pistons' long-term
trend line was that they fouled much more than in previous seasons --
opponents averaged .328 free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt, the
league's 10th-highest figure. Blame that on the exuberance of youth: While
the Pistons' starting five fouled as infrequently as ever, the reserves saw
heavy use last season and were much more willing to hack away.
在防守效率上活塞排第四。本季活塞和前幾季唯一的不同是犯規變多了，變成聯盟第
十高，可以算是年輕球員的錯。先發五人犯規次數還是很少，但上季板凳用得多了。

Fortunately, the foul line was about the only place to get points on the
Pistons. They ranked third in field-goal defense, 3-point defense and
opponent true shooting percentage; in each case, the Celtics and Rockets were
the only teams ahead of them. One reason was their shot-blocking -- Detroit
turned back 7.57 percent of opponents' offerings, the highest rate in
basketball. This fact was lost in the shuffle a bit since two teams had more
total blocked shots, but once you account for the Pistons' turtle-like pace,
they were easily the best.
罰球線也是對手遇上活塞時唯一可以得分的地方。在防守field-goal、三分球和對手
實際命中率上活塞排行第三。但在火鍋上活塞排第一，對手有百分之7.57的球會被活
塞扒掉。

Rasheed Wallace and Jason Maxiell were the team leaders in raw blocks, but
the other difference-makers in Detroit's total were Amir Johnson and Theo
Ratliff -- both of whom posted prodigious shot-block totals in limited
playing time. Johnson in particular was awesome, sending back a shot every
nine minutes.
雖然Sheed和Maxy是隊上火鍋手，但Amir和Ratliff的火鍋效率才驚人，尤其Amir平均
九分鐘會送出一客鍋。

Offensively, what stood out about the Pistons was how long they held the ball
and how rarely they gave it away. The Pistons played the league's slowest
pace, mostly because they didn't get out and run much on offense, but also
because at the defensive end they were rarely out of position and gambled
infrequently -- thus requiring opponents to beat them with half-court
execution.
進攻上活塞持球時間久，掉球機會也很罕見。活塞是聯盟中進攻速度最慢的球隊除了
因為他們進攻的跑動不多外，也因為他們的防守很到位。

Inevitably, Detroit has been misunderstood because of its slow pace. The
Pistons have been viewed as a tough, defensive team for the past few years
because they're always among the top three teams in points allowed;
conversely, their offense hasn't been valued as highly because of its
middling status in the league tables. But look at things on a per-possession
basis, and the Pistons' offense has been nearly as effective as the defense
in the three seasons under Flip Saunders -- a key difference between this
Detroit era and the Larry Brown teams.
也因為活塞的步調慢導致進攻被誤解。除了是支防守強隊外，在老桑帶領的三個球季
活塞的進攻效率的防守是差不多的。這是和布朗爺的時候很重要的不同。

In 2007-08, Detroit finished eighth in the league in offensive efficiency,
with a game-plan predicated on taking more shots than opponents. It might not
seem that way given their methodical offense, but the Pistons were a
low-mistake offensive team that took lots of midrange jumpers and made a
concerted effort to rebound the misses.
活塞在上季的進攻效率是聯盟第八，也是最少犯錯，偏愛中距離跳投且努力掙搶進攻
籃板的進攻球隊。

The Pistons actually were a hair below the league average in TS% at 53.9, so
just relying on their shooting wasn't the ticket. The entire reason they were
able to succeed was that, per possession, they took more shots than any team
in the league. Detroit had the league's third-lowest turnover rate, making
miscues on 12.9 percent of their trips, and the sixth-best offensive rebound
rate at 29.4 percent.
活塞在每次球權的出手數高於聯盟其他球隊。失誤比率是聯盟第三低，進攻籃板比率
也是聯盟第六名。

Add those two items together and the Pistons were the league's only team to
average more than one shot per possession (counting a free-throw attempt as
0.44 of a "shot"); in turn, that advantage alone was the reason their offense
was so effective (see chart).
把失誤比和進攻籃板加進去算的話活塞是聯盟唯一平均每次球權多於一次出手數的球
隊。

Most Shots Per 100 possessions, 2007-08
TEAM           TO Rate  Off. Reb.   Rate Shots* per 100 possessions
Detroit        12.8     29.4        100.24
Golden State   13.0     27.2        99.56
New Orleans    12.9     27.0        99.51
Cleveland      15.0     30.4        99.31
Washington     14.2     28.9        99.02
League average 14.8     26.7        96.96

Shots = FGA + (FTA * 0.44)


Unfortunately, the offense melted down at the worst possible time -- a
13-point fourth quarter in Game 6 against Boston -- as Detroit was
eliminated. Once again, Wallace was a key protagonist, essentially mailing in
the most important game of the season. His final stat line read four points,
three turnovers and zero interest.
不幸地活塞的進攻在最不適合的時候瓦解，對Celtics的第六戰第四節只拿下13分而
Sheed還是要角，那場比賽只有4分，還有3個失誤，他對比賽的興趣是零。

In the wake of a third straight conference finals defeat, team president Joe
Dumars set about shaking things up. First he basically announced to the world
that his entire roster was available in a trade. Then he fired Flip Saunders,
in spite of the fact that by any reasonable standard Saunders had been wildly
successful. I should also point out the Pistons weren't favored to beat
Boston, so it seemed a little disingenuous to fire him for losing.
連三年在分區冠軍戰敗陣後Dumars向全世界宣佈整隊都可以交易，也把用一般標準來
看非常成功的老桑解雇，也因為活塞本來就不被看好，因此解雇老桑似乎是有點虛偽。

Nonetheless, few deny that a shake-up might do the Pistons some good. In
addition to the rumored friction between Wallace and Saunders, there was the
little matter of it being their third straight conference finals defeat to a
team that was visibly hungrier.

To replace Saunders, Dumars opted for Michael Curry, a former Piston who had
an outstanding reputation in the locker room as a player, but who possesses
no head coaching experience. He'll have to ramp up to speed quickly with a
team for which the only goal is winning a championship, so he'll be under a
microscope. Of course, Dumars has never been shy about switching generals --
this is his fifth coach since he took over as general manager (including the
coach he inherited), even though each of the previous three he hired won a
minimum of 50 games per season and made it as far as the conference finals at
least once.
Dumars找了當球員時在休息室中享有聲譽的MC當教頭。沒當過教頭的MC也得加快腳步
，畢竟球隊的唯一目標就是總冠軍。

Biggest Strength: Depth
最大優勢：深度

The Pistons have an impressive four-man nucleus with Billups, Richard
Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince and Wallace, but what made them so powerful last
season is that they lost little when the subs checked in. The second unit was
so effective that no Piston played more than 33.6 minutes per game last
season. Instead the subs played large stretches in the second and fourth
quarters and played them extremely well.
活塞四人核心非常優秀，但上季活塞打那麼好的原因是板凳上場時他們也輸得很少。
二軍非常有效率也因此上季沒有球員上場超過33.6分鐘。二軍在第二節和第四節上場
時間非常多，打得也非常好。

One former sub who may be graduating to starter this year is Maxiell, who
seems set to take over Antonio McDyess' starting frontcourt spot after
outperforming the veteran as a reserve a year ago. But Maxiell may find
himself having to hold off the challenge of another rising young star, as
Johnson is a huge talent coming into his own as a player and needs only to
curb a mammoth foul rate to become a more regular contributor. McDyess, of
course, isn't chopped liver himself, and if you're a Kwame Brown believer,
that takes Detroit to five-deep in quality bigs.
Maxy上季的表現超越McDyess，Amir也很有天份，他只需要減少犯規比率就能擁有
穩定的貢獻。如果你相信Kwame的話，活塞會有五個夠格的大個。

It's a similar story on the perimeter. Herrmann has been under the radar the
past two years but has played quite well whenever he has been given the
opportunity, while Arron Afflalo emerged as a potential defensive stopper as
a rookie last season and likely will get more time this year.
如果有上場時間Herrmann的表現會很好，Afflalo這個菜鳥上季也是個有潛力防守
專家，本季上場時間很有可能會增加。

And then there's Rodney Stuckey. The 6-5 combo guard appears to have all the
makings of a future star, with a sketchy outside shot being the only
potential hurdle. The plan is for him to get 30 minutes a game backing up
both backcourt slots this season, and his development could be one of the key
factors for Dumars in deciding whether to deal Billups or Hamilton at the
trade deadline.
未來明星Stuckey的外線是他唯一的問題。計畫有30分鐘上場時間的他本季的表現
將是Dumars決定交易槍蜥或Rip的關鍵因素。

Biggest Weakness: Star power
最大劣勢：明星球員

You can point to a lot of things when looking at Detroit's failures in the
conference finals: Rasheed Wallace's consecutive Game 6 mail-ins, the playoff
struggles of Billups, the Pistons' seeming lack of urgency.
你可以說活塞上季的失敗是Sheed第六戰的神遊，槍蜥季後賽不佳的表現或活塞沒有
危機意識。

But the thing that stands out more than the others are these three names:
Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Kevin Garnett. These are the three players who
have outgunned Detroit the past three seasons, respectively, and it points
out the one obvious weakness Detroit has in a playoff series against other
top contenders. Whereas these teams had a superstar player who could go 45
minutes, making their teams far more potent in the playoffs than in the
regular season, Detroit lacked the kind of freakish talent who could put them
over the top in those situations. No matter whom they face in a conference
finals, you can pretty much guarantee that the best player on the court won't
be a Piston.
但最重要的是下面這三個名字：Wade、LBJ和Garnett。不管活塞在分區冠軍戰面對誰，
你都可以說場上的最佳球員絕不是活塞這方。

In that respect, what's amazing about Detroit isn't that they've continually
fallen just short, but that they've even been in the hunt. Make a list of the
league's 10 best players and I guarantee there won't be a Piston on it, but
they've been to six straight conference finals and won a championship with
the Billups-Hamilton-Prince nucleus.
但活塞只是差一點點而已。聯盟最佳十位球員名單中一定沒有活塞人，但他們連續六次
打進分區冠軍戰，贏得一座總冠軍只靠小王子、槍蜥和Rip這些核心。

It's likely to be the Pistons' undoing again, whether it's LeBron, KG or some
other burgeoning talent who knocks them out, and there's really not much they
can do about it -- except changing the roster. That's exactly why Dumars has
been fishing around for deals that might put such a player onto his own
roster.
活塞很有可能再次失敗，不管是LBJ，KG或其他快速成長的明星球員讓他們出局，而
他們能做的也不多，除非改變陣容。這也是Dumars在這暑假釣魚的原因。

Outlook
展望

If we're going to use history as our teacher, then the default prediction for
Detroit should be a win total in the mid-50s and a demoralizing loss in the
conference finals. To stray from that projection after what has happened the
past three seasons, we would need some very compelling evidence.
如果用歷史當我們的老師，那活塞應該贏五十幾場然後在分區冠軍戰敗陣。為了不用
過去三季做預測，我們需要更令人信服的證據。

Certainly there are reasons to think Detroit might be better -- even while
nurturing a contending nucleus, Dumars has brought along a second wave of
talent in the likes of Maxiell, Stuckey and Johnson that has eased the burden
on his veteran starters. The youngsters also provide some insurance in case
somebody on the Pistons ever gets injured -- their track record of health the
past half-decade has been completely ridiculous, but now they're so deep that
injuries would have to pile up en masse to materially affect them.
有一些原因可以相信活塞會更好，包括Maxy、Stuckey、Amir已可以減輕先發的負擔
，他們也是萬一先發某人受傷時的保險。

Standing against those positives are the facts that the Pistons who will play
the crunch-time minutes are getting fairly long in the tooth -- Hamilton is
30, Billups is 32, and Wallace and McDyess are 34 -- and that first-year
coach Curry may have to endure some growing pains this season.
活塞的先發愈來愈老或許是Curry本季得面對的問題。

Add it all up and we're right back where we started. Yes, we must take
Detroit seriously as a title contender. But much like last in the past three
seasons, it appears that the Pistons are really, really good … and there's
one other Eastern team that's better.
加總來看我們必須視活塞為冠軍競爭隊。但就像過去三年一樣，活塞非常非常好，但
東區還有另一隊更好。

Prediction: 54-28, 1st in Central Division, 2nd in Eastern Conference



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◆ From: 163.25.121.174
推 Mazinfans:還是希望槍晰和RIP不要分開 但也不能叫STUCKEY打不好呀
※ 編輯: pennymarcus     來自: 163.25.121.174       (10/01 14:23)
推 chiehfu:歷史當老師.....突然想到"借歷史代課老師" XD
推 syueboss:他們三個可以同時出現
→ syueboss:RIP 可以調到小前鋒   其它兩人扛雙衛
推 cccaa26:RIP打小前身材劣勢很大 不過如果對矮小跑轟陣容
→ cccaa26:讓王子當PF RIP當SF也許不錯喔 過去偶爾也會用這種陣容
推 Kreen:推～