[外電] 季中報告3之2 態度和新秀比較篇

[kerrys (台北不是我的家)]

    原文出處：
              http://0rz.tw/a63J2

--

Forty-seven games. 34 and 13. Its hard to argue with that record. This season
has been an emotional rollercoaster for fans as the spectre of last season’s
early exit still haunts most fans and their patience is short when it comes to
the promised changes Dumars proclaimed. Instead of rattling off some random
observations or some one sided tirade about how we’re sinking despite all that
winning, I tried to gather some cold, hard facts. Sure, stats don’t tell the
whole story; they may not even tell the most accurate story but I wanted to
present something rooted in objectivity.
    47場比賽，34勝13敗。這樣的成績已經沒什麼好挑剔的了。這個球季球迷的心情就像
搭了一趟雲霄飛車，因為上個球季季後賽意外提早中箭落馬的惡夢還揮之不去，而他們對
於老喬宣佈說情況一定會有所改變這件事已經逐漸失去了等待的耐心。與其無視於球隊贏
多輸少的事實，滔滔不絕地說一些瞎扯的觀察結果或一些不公的長篇大論，我寧願試著去
收集一些冰冷生硬的事實。是的，數據無法顯示事情的全貌；他們甚或無法顯示最準確的
一面，但我還是希望能藉由它來客觀地陳述一些事情。

--

Solid or Stagnant?
    不動如山還是停滯不前？

The Pistons starting five is ranked the 2nd most efficient combination by
lenovo stats. They also logged the 2nd most minutes as a unit behind the New
Orleans. The Pistons main core of Billups, Hamilton, Prince, Wallace and
McDyess has been durable and mostly injury free. The +/- drop off when Maxiell
enters for either McDyess or Wallace is substantial dropping from 171 to 34.
However, Arron Afflalo plays as part of the statistically most effective units
next to the main starting five when you take into account that nothing is
nearly as productive as the core.
    活塞先發五虎的lenovo +/- stats(球員在場上那段時間內，球隊與對手比較的得失分
差。)在聯盟中名列第二。他們同時上場的時間也僅次於紐奧良黃蜂的先發五人。活塞主力
包括槍蜥、RIP、小王子、溪蛙和袋鼠都很耐戰而且甚少受到傷病影響。不過這項+/-數據
在J-Max上場頂替袋鼠或溪蛙任一人時就會從171大幅下降至34。撇開先發五虎望其項背的
數據不說，包含Arron Afflalo的組合是最有效率的。

Other teams sporting highly effective units with big time minutes are New
Orleans and unsurprisingly; Boston. Speaking of drop offs, the Celtics have an
all too similar drop off going from 213 to 31 once they start rotating in other
players. Like to think that Boston has no bench? Statistically speaking, it’s
not like we have some highly effective but under utilized combination.
    先發五人同時上場時間很多而且還擁有超高效率的球隊包括紐奧良以及一點也不令人
意外的；波士頓。說到數據在某先發球員下場休息時大幅下降，塞爾提克和活塞有極度相
似問題，只要某先發球員下場休息，這項數據就會從213大幅下降至31。這意味著波士頓沒
什麼板凳深度？以數據來看，他們似乎不像我們擁有一些有效而且常用的組合。

Coming in fourth as of this writing is Utah. San Antonio has dealt with an
injured Ginobli and seems to be rotating its centers evenly. Dallas has also
been dealing with a stream of injuries to Dampier and Jones.
    這項數據的第四名是猶他。而聖安東尼奧為了應付Ginobili的傷勢，在中鋒的調度上
採取了齊頭式的做法(意思就是沒有什麼特別有效率的固定組合，中鋒人選一直無法固定)
。達拉斯也面臨了Dampier和Jones接連掛病號的傷兵問題。

Rip Hamilton has clocked in 1482 minutes at a 35.3 per game. That puts him on
par with Ricky Davis and Ben Gordon and surprisingly, Kevin Garnett. Next is
Billups at 1429 (34 mpg) and Prince at 1486 (33.8 mpg). McDyess and Wallace get
in about 31 minutes per game. Maxiell, our “6th Man” clocks in 22.8 minutes
per game. For comparison, Deron Williams averages 36.8 minutes per game, Yao
Ming 37.3, Steve Nash 34.1 and Ben Wallace 32.4.
    RIP上場總時數是1482分鐘，平均每場比賽上場35.3分鐘。那讓他的平均上場時間與
Ricky Davis、班蛙以及令人訝異地，Kevin Garnett相近。接下來是槍蜥的1429分鐘(平均
每場34分鐘)和小王子的1486分鐘(平均每場33.8分鐘)，而袋鼠和溪蛙每場比賽大約上場31
分鐘。J-Max，我們的"第六人"每場比賽上場22.8分鐘。舉一些對照組，Deron Williams平
均上場36.8分鐘、姚明平均上場37.3分鐘、Steve Nash平均上場34.1分鐘，班蛙則是32.4
分鐘。

--

It doesn’t matter what your name is!
    你叫什麼名字都不重要！

Before the season started, the Pistons traded Carlos Delfino to the Toronto
Raptors for two 2nd round picks. Many speculated that Grant Hill would make a
return or that it would open a spot for budding Amir Johnson. Hill never played
a minute for Detroit and Amir wasn’t far behind. Enter Jarvis Hayes. Hayes was
touted as a more efficient scorer – that missing punch off the bench.
    在球季開始前，活塞把Carlos Delfino交易至多倫多暴龍換取兩枚第二輪選秀權。很
多人都在猜Grant Hill將會回鍋或者稚嫩的Amir Johnson將會擁有更多上場機會磨練。
Hill根本沒穿底特律球衣上場打球而Amir也相差不遠，但是來了一個Jarvis Hayes。據球
探回報，Hayes應該是一個更有效率的得分手 - 是球隊目前欠缺的板凳暴徒。

Hayes has lived up to those expectations…by 0.7 %. He is chipping in 1.4 pts
more per game as well. He’s getting roughly the same minutes Delfino had last
year at 16.6. All that scoring for -0.7 rebounds and -0.4 steals. If we take a
look at Maurice Evans’ tenure as the backup at 3, it becomes apparent that
whomever you stick there, you’re going to get 15 minutes, 5 pts and 3 rebounds
. Any bets on what Walter Hermann would average if he signed on as Tay’s
backup? My money is on 6 pts, 3 rebounds in 16.5 minutes. The more things
change, the more they stay the same.
    Hayes只有達到原本大家對他期望的...大概0.7%。他分得的上場時間和去年Delfino相
差無幾，平均得分比Delfino多了1.4分，不過少了0.7個籃板和0.4個抄截。如果我們回顧
Maurice Evan擔任三號位置替補時的表現，似乎就能很明顯地看出，不管誰來扮演這個角
色，你大概會分到15分鐘的上場時間，拿下5分和3籃板。如果要賭Walter Hermann被簽下
作為小王子的替補表現如何？我猜大概是平均16.5分鐘，6分和3籃板。其他變數越多，他
們的表現就越不會有改變。

--

Number 2 pick…presto!
    第二順位選秀...轉眼間！

With Darko finally proving some supporters fwrong (or is it that he STILL
hasn’t found the right situation?) we can concentrate on our consolation prize
: Rodney Stuckey. The buzz around the new kid was electric as he tore up summer
league. A broken hand slowed his development and the rookie has struggled
mightily as of late. Looking at other guards around the league, Durant is doing
his number 2 overall thing in Seattle. Conley has made Stoudamire cry uncle in
Memphis by making the starting lineup. Aside from that, Stuckey compares
equally with Acie Law with both players shooting like the rest of us at the
local YMCA. Law and Stuckey’s averages are nearly identical but Law plays
behind Anthony Johnson and Speedy Claxton and started briefly before finding
himself coming off the bench. Nick Young is getting roughly the same burn but
on a team that’s suffered some major injuries to Arenas and to his backup
Daniels. So before we give up on the young fella, we should realize that there
will be growing pains for any player.
    在Darko終於證明某些支持者是錯誤時(還是他尚未找到適合他的環境？)，我們可以專
心看待我們令人感到安慰的寶貴資產：Rodney Stuckey。這孩子在夏季聯盟以風馳電掣的
速度颳起一陣炫風後，左手傷勢阻礙了他的成長速度，而且他最近開始面臨了嚴重的新秀
撞牆期。看看聯盟中其他其他後衛，Durant在西雅圖拿出了符合他榜眼身價的優異表現。
在孟斐斯的Conley已經迫使太空飛鼠Stoudamire讓出他先發控衛位置。先撇開他們不談，
我們拿Acie Law來和Stuckey比較會公平一些，因為他們倆的投籃命中率和我們這些在鄰近
YMCA球場打球的傢伙不相上下。Law和Stuckey的攻守數據幾乎是同一個模子刻出來的，Law
原本擔任Anthony Johnson和Speedy Claxton之後的第三後衛，但在還未找回感覺前已經被
安排擔任先發控衛的角色。Nick Young在球隊主力Arenas及其替補Daniels受傷的球況下拿
出和他們相當的數據。所以在我們放棄這年輕小夥子之前，我們應該要認清一個事實，對
任何球員來說，成長的苦痛都是必經的過程。

                    MPG  PPG  RPG  APG  SPG   FG%    FT%

Rodney Stuckey     15.1  4.3  1.5  2.1   1   0.318  0.885

Acie Law IV        17.5  4.4  1.3  2.4  0.1  0.373  0.792

Nick Young         14.2  6.7  1.4  0.8  0.5  0.406  0.815

Mike Conley        26.8  8.9  2.6   5   0.9  0.444  0.705

--

Now is the Winter of Our Discontent
    我們不滿意的的冬天

…made glorious summer by this recent playing time for Amir Johnson. It wasn’t
a Pistonsforum phenomenon. It was a Pistons Nation one. Dumars said no more
DNP-CD’s but a bum ankle allowed a loophole in the youth movement. Fans cried
foul. Amir Johnson sat idle or rounded out blowouts. When he did play, he
looked every bit the inexperienced, yet talented youngster that he was. He’s
been mistake prone and productive at the same time which is, looking across the
league, par for the course. Andray Blatche, the Wizards long term project
shares a lot of similarities with Johnson. Both have size and great athleticism
. Both have multi-positional skills. Both were selected late as preps to pros
projects. Compared to Amir, Andray is clocking more than double the minutes and
more than double the points. Would AJ average 7 pts and 5 rebounds if he got 18
minutes? Who can say. Would Andray get 18 minutes in Detroit? Only if he’s
visiting with the Wizards.
    ...因為Amir的上場時間使得他夏天的榮光再次成為泡影。這不是一個只在活塞論壇才
有的特異現象，而是在活塞王國中到處都有的現象(意思是說Amir上場時間變多的話讓所有
活塞迷都覺得夏天來了)。老喬說他不會再領到DNP-CD's(未上場，教練的決定)，但腳踝傷
勢使得球隊年輕化的政策出現了漏洞。球迷們對此都很不滿。Amir坐在場邊發呆或只能在
垃圾時間上場充數。當他真的上場打球時，他的一舉一動看起來就是經驗不足，雖然他的
確是個有天份的年輕人。他還是有容易犯錯的習慣，這是意料中事，不過放眼全聯盟，他
的效率還算不差。巫師長期培養的對象Andray Blatche和Johnson有許多相似的特質。他們
兩個都有身材及出色的運動能力。兩個人都能負責好幾個位置的工作。他們兩個都在選秀
會後段被所屬球隊挑走，作為長期培養的對象。和Amir相比，Andray獲得的上場時間是
Amir兩倍以上，平均得分也是兩倍以上。如果Amir獲得18分鐘的上場時間，他能否拿出平
均7分、5籃板的成績單？他說得準呢？Andray能否在底特律獲得18分鐘的上場時間？可以
是可以，不過只有在隨巫師造訪底特律時才有機會。

                    MPG  PPG  RPG  APG  SPG   FG%    FT%

Amir Johnson        8.4  2.7  2.6  0.6  0.2  0.49   0.72

Andray Blatche     18.5  6.2  4.6   1   0.6  0.45   0.72

While this doesn’t come close to the fine statistical based analysis that
dba offers up, one could make the case that, based on the numbers, we’re right
where we should be. Sure we’d like to have more success but our starters are
playing generally less than other starters and our rookies are performing at
about the same level as other rookies.
    儘管這篇文章不像dba板友提供的那篇文章，針對數據做了詳盡的分析，不過有一點能
夠確定的就是，根據數據顯示，我們在走在正確的道路上。很肯定的我們希望在先發球員
上場時間比其他球隊少以及菜鳥的表現和其他新秀相比不相上下的情況獲得更多的勝利。

Hopefully the youth trend will continue and expand as the season wears on.
    希望在球季進行的同時，球隊年輕化的政策能夠持續發展和推動。

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 210.241.111.125
推 valen1018:Amir跟Blatche的數據好像有問題  貼到前面stuckey跟Lawꨠ
推 twister527:推~~
※ 編輯: kerrys          來自: 210.241.111.125      (02/23 17:29)
推 cd928:推~~
推 ccab99:推!
推 kolay:推
推 Loj:我相信 Amir 的發展絕對會比 Blatche 好的，在這麼優秀的團隊
→ Loj:學習是很難得的。而且 不要像B一樣去偷嫖被警察釣到喔 XD
推 eloveb:還有他的態度。目前看來相當不錯
推 Kreen:推～