[外電] Meet Amir Johnson (上)

[kerrys (台北不是我的家)]

    原文出處：
              http://dberri.wordpress.com/2008/02/28/meet-amir-johnson/

--

Eli Witus - of Count the Basket - and I are both fans of the Pistons. After my
post on Carl Landry, he suggested a similar post on Amir Johnson.
    Count the Basket的Eli Witus和我都是活塞的球迷。在我波了Carl Landry的文章後
，他建議我為Amir Johnson寫一篇類似的文章。

Like Landry, Johnson is a big man who has been quite productive in limited
minutes.  Unlike Landry, this production was somewhat expected.
    和Landry一樣，Johnson是一個在有限上場時間內有相當生產力的大個子。和Landry不
一樣的是，這些貢獻有些是意料之內的。

The Unexpected Pistons
    出乎意料的活塞軍

Before I get to that story, though, let me talk about the unexpected
performance of the Pistons.  Last year this team won 53 games with a 4.6
efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency).  In
the off-season the Pistons lost Carlos Delfino and Chris Webber.  And they
added Jarvis Hayes and two rookie guards.  Furthermore, the team promised to
give Webber’s minutes to Jason Maxiell.  Since Delfino and Webber were above
average performers, and Hayes and Maxiell were below average (and the rookies
were expected to be below average), I expected the Pistons to decline in
2007-08.
    在正題開始前，讓我先說說本季表現出乎大家意料之外的活塞。去年這支球隊贏了53
場比賽，攻守效率級差是正4.6(攻擊效率扣掉防守效率的數值)。季外活塞失去了Carlos
Delfino和Chris Webber，另外補進了Jarvis Hayes和兩名菜鳥後衛。此外，這支球隊允諾
要把Webber的上場時間撥給J-Max。因為Delfino和Webber是水準以上的球員，而Hayes和
J-Max是水準以下的(菜鳥們的表現也被預期會在水準以下)，所以我原本預期活塞在
'07-'08會走下坡。

But that hasn’t happened.  The Pistons have actually improved tremendously,
and currently boast the second best record in the NBA.  So how was this
possible?
    但事實並非如此。活塞真的有長足的進步，而且最近戰績還暴衝至全聯盟第二。所以
這到底是如何辦到的呢？

Table One: Projecting the Pistons after 57 games
    表一：以57場比賽後的數據推測活塞球員全季的表現。

Table One offers two projections of Detroit’s Wins Produced.  The first
assumes that what we saw from these players last season (except the rookies)
will be seen this year.  The second projection assumes that what we have seen
so far this season will be seen the rest of the 2007-08 campaign.
    表一提供了兩個活塞未來在Wins Produced數據上的推測。第一我們假設這些球員今年
的表現會和去年一樣(除了菜鳥以外)。第二個推測假設他們本季至今的表現將會持續至'07
-'08年球季結束為止。

If the Pistons had maintained their performance from last season the team would
currently be on pace to win 47 games.  Again, the moves they made should have
left them worse off.  But when we look at what the players have done this
season we see a projection of 62 wins.
    如果活塞維持和上個球季一樣的步調，那他們現在應該只有37勝。再一次強調，他們
球員異動的部分應該會讓實力變差的。但以目前所見這些球員的表現來做推測，我們可以
得出一個62勝的結果。

When we look at the individual players we see that this leap can be linked
almost entirely to the play of four players: Chauncey Billups, Rasheed Wallace,
Richard Hamilton, and Maxiell.
    在看球員個別表現時我們幾乎可以把活塞本季的大躍進完全歸功於下列四名球員：槍
蜥、溪蛙、RIP和J-Max。

To see what these players are doing better, we turn to Table Two.
    要看這些球員哪裡進步，我們繼續來看表二。

Table Two: The Improving Pistons
    表二：進步的活塞球員

Table Two reports each of these player’s statistics from 2006-07 and 2007-08.
Looking over these numbers we see one consistent difference.  All four players
have improved with respect to shooting efficiency and assists.
    表二可以看出每個球員在'06-'07及'07-'08年球季的統計數據。環視這些數據我們可
以看到有一個很一致的級差。四名球員的投籃效率和助攻數據都進步了。

So how did this happen?  Flip Saunders is considered an offensive-minded coach,
so it is possible he has done something to change how these players perform.
Yes, coaching can impact performance and this might just be an example of this
phenomena (then again, maybe it isn’t).  Regardless, we can see that it is
these four players - and their improved shooting efficiency - that has played a
major role in Detroit’s rise.
    所以這是怎麼來的？老桑被認為是一個善於進攻的教練，所以可能他做了某些事情改
變了這些球員的表現。是的，指導可以影響表現，而這可能只是導致這現象的原因之一(再
一次強調，或許根本與老桑的指導無關)。不管怎麼說，我們可以發現這四名球員 - 還有
他們進步了的投籃效率 - 是活塞戰績爆衝的主要原因。

Focusing just on Maxiell, though, we see more than just a change in efficiency.
Maxiell has also improved on the boards.  These changes have increased his WP48
from a mark of -0.002 last season to 0.105 in 2007-08.  In other words, Maxiell
has gone from well below average to average.  Clearly increasing his minutes
was a good idea.
    只把注意力放在J-Max的話，我們可以發現他的改變不只在效率上面。J-Max的籃板數
據也有長足的進步。這些改變讓他的WP48從上季的-0.002進步到'07-'08年球季的0.105。
換句話說，J-Max的表現已經從遠低於平均進步到和平均相當。很明顯的，增加他的上場時
間是個好主意。

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