→ kolay:看了結論...有說等於沒說.... 05/16 05:05
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推 GQ38:基本上這個人預測的完全糗爺化~~ 05/16 19:46
來源：
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs2007/insider/columns/
story?columnist=thorpe_david&page=ScoutingBullsPistons-Game5
Scouts Inc. update: Bulls vs. Pistons, Game 5
Insider
Thorpe
By David Thorpe
Scouts Inc.
Archive
‧ Bulls-Pistons series scouting report | Series page
While basketball is a complex game, filled with scores of offensive sets and
dozens of defensive strategies, oftentimes winning boils down to the simplest
of things: Who is more fundamental on block outs? Who has taken better care
of the basketball? Which bench plays with more energy? Ditto for the
starters. Who has gotten to the free-throw line more often?
However, in this series, answering those questions alone would not indicate,
necessarily, the outcome of each game. Chicago took 10 more free throws than
Detroit in Game 1, and got blown out. They committed eight less turnovers in
Game 2, and got crushed by 21 points. In Game 3, the Bulls dominated the
boards -- outrebounding the Pistons by 17, with a plus-12 on the offensive
glass, and still lost.
So what did the Bulls do right to win Game 4 that the Pistons did better in
Games 1, 2 and 3? Perhaps the most overlooked but most meaningful statistic
of all: they shot the ball better, from the field and from the 3-point line.
Good shooting, and in this instance I'm referring to good percentages,
normally develops from a few factors: Getting easy buckets in transition,
hitting the offensive glass and employing good shot selection. Additionally,
feeling comfortable and confident is a must for each individual shooter.
Chicago struggled shooting the ball in the first three games, partially due
to the Pistons' solid defense. But it was also due to a lack of confidence
and rhythm stemming from the beating it took in Game 1. We speculated as much
in our Game 2 outlook. But being on the short side of a 3-0 series deficit
helped relax an obviously tight team, and Chicago finally looked like the
team many people expected to see in this series. The Bulls' ball movement was
crisp, as were their cuts, and they didn't just make a lot of shots, they
made clutch ones.
While Chicago has built a small amount of momentum and confidence, the
Pistons are still talking confidently, but not based on how they shot the
ball in Chicago. Yes, they split the games there, which was Goal No. 1. But
they didn't break 40 percent shooting from the field or 30 percent from 3 in
either game. Too often they settled for perimeter jumpers, something they
have been acknowledging to the media. Getting Chauncey Billups driving and
posting, and hitting Richard Hamilton on curls or in the post, that is the
Detroit way.
The common thought is that the Pistons have the edge over Chicago because of
Chris Webber and his low-post game. Would it surprise people to know that
C-Webb has not scored in either of the last two games, and only scored five
points in Game 1? Yes, he was pivotal in Game 2, but his overall 6.8 ppg in
this series suggests Detroit will look to their two guards and Tayshaun
Prince to get them back into the groove. Especially when you consider that
Rasheed Wallace is 4-for-19 from 3 in the last two games. His 2-for-12
performance from 3 in Game 4 tells us all we need to know about his, and the
team's, mind-set in that game. Expect a lot more paint attacks and aggressive
moves inside in Game 5.
The Bulls wants to bottle Game 4 and try to replicate their strong and timely
shooting in Detroit. They will focus on surviving one quarter at a time.
They'll expect a more aggressive Pistons team, so look for similar "physical
attitudes" to be displayed by Ben Wallace and company. When the Pistons go
zone, Chicago will hope to shoot them out of it and attack the offensive
glass. I think the Bulls will orient their defense to slowing Billups and
forcing someone else to beat them. They have nothing to lose in a sense -- no
one expects them to win -- so we can expect the kitchen sink to be thrown at
Detroit.
Chicago is a dangerous team when playing with confidence and feeling loose.
They have multiple players capable of putting up big offensive numbers. Last
year, the Pistons kept talking after every loss, saying they were not nervous
and had nothing to worry about. They are saying the same things now. But
their respect for Chicago's talent before Game 1 was a big part of why they
played so well. They'd be well-served to get back to that mind-set now.
I see Chicago giving Detroit a very tense struggle in a game that could go
either way down the stretch. Ultimately, I expect Detroit to make more shots
late, and hang on for a very tough win. But it would not shock me to see the
Bulls force a Game 6.
PREDICTION: Detroit wins Game 5
ESPN.com's Scouts Inc. will provide detailed scouting reports for each NBA
playoff series and each NBA playoff game.
David Thorpe is an NBA analyst for ESPN.com and the executive director of the
Pro Training Center in Clearwater, Fla., where he works as a personal coach
for Udonis Haslem (Miami Heat), Orien Greene (Indiana Pacers), Alexander
Johnson (Memphis Grizzlies) and Kevin Martin (Sacramento Kings).
--
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