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New York Times
Taiwan Voters Weighing How Far to Push China
By JOSEPH KAHN
AIPEI, Taiwan, March 17 — Chen Mingyi, a 25-year-old graduate student here,
spent years preparing for annual national examinations in the hope of someday
joining the government elite.
But when he sat for the three-day test last year he discovered that it had
changed. The traditional catechism of Chinese history and culture, the pillar
of academic standards since the Tang Dynasty, had instead become a touchstone
for the most divisive issues in today's Taiwan.
One question, for example, asked about Lai Ho, a local author whose writings
only make sense to people who understand Taiwan's Minnan dialect. Mr. Chen,
who as a schoolboy was fined for speaking Minnanese instead of standard
Mandarin, flunked the exam.
The changes to the exam, and similar shifts toward an assertive Taiwan identity
, are the backdrop for what has become the most competitive and, for both the
United States and China, the riskiest presidential election in Taiwan's history
.
An island of 23 million, Taiwan is a barnacle on the bow of the Chinese
mainland, with its 1.3 billion people and surging economy. Yet Taiwan is the
most delicate issue in relations between China, which claims sovereignty over
Taiwan, and the United States, which has vowed to defend the vigorous democracy
against any Chinese attack.
The incumbent Taiwanese president, Chen Shui-bian, has cast the vote on
Saturday as a choice between subjugation to Communist China and Taiwanese
nationalism, which some see as a stepping stone to formal independence.
The opposition, led by the Nationalist Party candidate, Lien Chan, favors a
more conciliatory approach to the mainland, which the Nationalists under Chiang
Kai-shek governed before losing the Chinese civil war and retreating to Taiwan
in 1949.
The election hinges on how far Taiwan residents want to push the idea that they
belong to a separate nation that has no more enduring connection to China than
it does to Japan or even the Netherlands, its former colonial rulers.
Taiwanese identity has been enjoying a tailwind of popular support in recent
years, especially among native Taiwanese once suppressed by the Nationalists.
It has been fanned by Mr. Chen, the leader of the Democratic Progressive Party,
which once explicitly advocated independence.
But the Nationalists, who lost their 50-year grip on power to Mr. Chen in 2000,
have staged a resurgence among those who think Mr. Chen has needlessly
antagonized China and even risked the island's de facto independence.
Mainland-born immigrants and their offspring, as well as the millions of
Taiwanese who depend on booming trade across the Taiwan Strait, are among
those saying they will support the Nationalists this time.
So is Mr. Chen, the student, a native Taiwanese who is no relation to the
president. He says the current government went too far when it changed the
national exam to include questions on what some students considered aracana of
Taiwan's indigenous history, like the one that asked them to name the original
language of the Sinkan manuscript, a bible of one of Taiwan's aboriginal tribes
.
"We grew up believing that our language is Mandarin and that our history is
China's history," he said. "Then some activists just erased China from our past
. They want to tear us apart."
The island is sharply divided as the election approaches. Polls taken before a
10-day blackout period began last week show a dead heat, with about 90 percent
of eligible voters saying they plan to cast a ballot.
While both parties have leveled accusations of corruption and promised
different approaches to managing the economy, the dominant issue is Taiwan's
sense of itself and how it should relate to China, which has 500 missiles
pointed at the island.
A Nationalist victory would probably ease cross-strait tensions, lead to
greater integration and perhaps prompt China to settle the sovereignty dispute
quickly. Mr. Chen has said that he will be willing to negotiate with China if
he wins a second term. But his supporters would almost certainly push him to
take concrete steps — including changing Taiwan's Constitution — to firm up
the island's independent political status, which would risk conflict.
Most Taiwanese are ethnically Chinese. But numerous polls show that a majority
have begun identifying themselves as Taiwanese rather than Chinese.
"Particularly among the young and in the south, there has been a dramatic
change," said Liao Dai-chi, a political expert at National Sun Yat-sen
University in Kaohsiung. "Any politician has to stand with `Taiwan identity' to
win election."
The use of Minnanese has soared, most notably on television, where it had been
banned by the Nationalists. Mandarin-speaking Taiwanese must read subtitles to
understand the sit-coms and talk shows with the highest ratings. Bookstores are
full of history titles that explore Taiwan's indigenous past. Some pop singers
have begun using Minnanese, even though that significantly limits the
potential market for their music.
The issue of separateness also resonates among religious leaders. William Lo,
the leader of Taiwan's Presbyterians, has told the church's 230,000 followers
that Mr. Chen is the "candidate who is closer to the Christian faith." Mr. Lo's
family migrated from China nearly 300 years ago, but he says he has no more
connection to China than descendants of Mayflower immigrants in America have to
England.
"We are not pure Chinese blood because we have long since intermarried with
aboriginal people," Mr. Lo says. "Please do not put us in a Chinese prison."
China has only strengthened this kind of thinking. Its missile tests in 1996,
intended to frighten Taiwanese voters ahead of an earlier presidential poll,
created lasting resentment. The Chinese government also alienated Taiwanese
last year when it lobbied aggressively to keep Taiwan out of the World Health
Organization just as Taiwan was battling the SARS epidemic.
Although the Nationalist Party promises to improve relations with China, Mr.
Lien rarely mentions reunification. He campaigns using Minnanese and stresses
his ethnic Taiwanese upbringing. But he has rested his election hopes — and
perhaps his party's survival — on the idea that the political center is more
moderate than Mr. Chen believes.
Mr. Lien's supporters say Mr. Chen miscalculated by pushing for a "defensive
referendum" on cross-strait issues to be held along with the presidential poll.
The idea angered the government in Beijing and cheered Mr. Chen's
pro-independence supporters. But it also drew a rebuke from President Bush, who
saw it as an unneeded provocation. That raised concerns that Mr. Chen had
weakened relations with Taiwan's most important ally.
Mr. Chen's anti-Chinese populism is also seen by some as out of touch with
economic reality. Last year, China overtook the United States and Japan as
Taiwan's largest export market. Some 1.5 million Taiwanese now reside on the
mainland.
"The Chen camp has ignored the interests of the middle class," said Lee
Ching-an, a legislator for the People First Party, which backs the Nationalists
.
"We are an island but we depend on the international economy."
In fact, the Nationalists are hoping that as many as 200,000 Taiwanese will
jam charter flights back from the mainland to vote for them. (There are no
absentee ballots.) The business community, divided in 2000, now leans toward th
e
Nationalists.
The push to localize education may have also prompted a backlash. Some parents
complain that their children must learn Minnanese along with Mandarin and
English. Beyond the difficulty of learning three languages, the fact that
Mandarin and Minnanese use overlapping characters with different pronunciations
means that some students end up mastering neither.
Some students, like Mr. Chen, say the changes to the national exam were purely
political and not based on anything he was taught.
"We are an island but we depend on the international economy."
In fact, the Nationalists are hoping that as many as 200,000 Taiwanese will
jam charter flights back from the mainland to vote for them. (There are no
absentee ballots.) The business community, divided in 2000, now leans toward th
e
Nationalists.
The push to localize education may have also prompted a backlash. Some parents
complain that their children must learn Minnanese along with Mandarin and
English. Beyond the difficulty of learning three languages, the fact that
Mandarin and Minnanese use overlapping characters with different pronunciations
means that some students end up mastering neither.
Some students, like Mr. Chen, say the changes to the national exam were purely
political and not based on anything he was taught.
"It is not a question of whether we are Taiwanese," he said, adding,
"It's whether we have some standards for our society."
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