Scott Kazmir Is Busted

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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/scott-kazmir-is-buste


Scott Kazmir is broken, and it’s starting to get to the point where we have
to wonder if he’s fixable. First, some graphs.


At the top, we see Kazmir’s walk and strikeout rate trends over the years.
They’re not good. From 2004 to 2007, Kazmir was among the elite strikeout
guys in baseball, averaging 10+ K/9 in three of the four seasons. He always
has struggled with his command, but the overpowering stuff made up for it.

Last year, he famously “lost his slider”, as you can see in the third
image. He cut his slider usage in half and saw his GB% sink accordingly,
becoming an extreme flyball pitcher. His strikeout rate dropped some, but not
drastically, and while he had definitely taken a step back, there was hope
that he would rebound after rediscovering his slider this spring.

That hasn’t happened. The fourth image is a velocity histogram of Kazmir’s
start last night. His fastest pitch of the night was 90.7 MPH. His fastball
averaged 89.05 MPH, confirming the data in the third chart - his velocity is
off by a couple MPH this year on all pitches, not just his fastball. He’s
throwing a bunch of sliders again, but they’re of the 80 MPH variety, not
the 84 MPH power slider that he used to throw.

Those missing MPH are having a pretty big impact. Batters are making contact
with 84% of the pitches Kazmir throws this year, way up from his 75% career
average. In turn, his strikeouts are down, but he hasn’t been able to offset
the loss of dominance with a corresponding improvement in his walk rate. His
4.91 BB/9 is the highest he’s posted since his rookie season.

Not surprisingly, this version of broken Kazmir isn’t very good. His FIP is
4.78 and last night’s beating pushed his ERA to 6.00. The Rays have David
Price waiting in Triple-A, and with Kazmir looking like he needs a stint on
the disabled list and an MRI, they might not be able to keep him down on the
farm much longer. This Rays team needs a boost, and until they figure out what
’s wrong with Kazmir, it doesn’t look like they’ll be getting it from his
spot in the rotation.

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◆ From: 140.112.5.3
推 qazwsdf     :我覺得應該要加上Kaz的控球才有說服力，失速雖然容易
→ qazwsdf     :跟受傷聯想在一起，但致命的還是BB吧
推 knoxvillt   :有一說是他去年開完刀後 好像控球就沒有07年的水準
推 IVIVI       :壞消息 今年三振率大增且屠殺2a的Hellickson在昨天投
→ IVIVI       :完2局後 因為肩膀酸痛而下場 雖然教練表示只是肌肉酸
→ IVIVI       :痛 不過還是令人擔心
推 paradoxjor  :Hellickson今年的確是屠殺2A