[Note] Sorry, BoSox, Yanks: Rays have better rotation

[majohn ()]

可以對著紅襪和洋基科科笑兩聲了XD
大致上做些簡單的翻譯

出處：http://0rz.tw/4f3QN

Sorry, BoSox, Yanks: Rays have better rotation
By David Pinto - SportingNews
10 hours, 26 minutes ago

      Buzz Up Print
With the American League East pitching rotations coming into focus, the
division looks to produce four competitive starting staffs. The Boston Red
Sox, New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays have a mix of
outstanding veterans and talented young pitchers.

美東的投手輪值再一次的成為了矚目焦點，就讓咱們用幾種投手數據來看看美東各隊
的投手深度八。

Which starting rotation is best? The projections might be surprising.

哪一隊的投手輪值最棒呢？決對不是興農牛，但也讓各位夠吃驚了！

First, let’s look at who’s who in each rotation:

首先來看看各隊的輪值

Red Sox: Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, Jon Lester, Clay
Buchholz
Yankees: Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, Phil Hughes, Ian
Kennedy
Blue Jays: Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum, Jesse
Litsch
Rays: Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza, Andy Sonnanstine, Jason Hammel

Baseball Prospectus publishes player projections called PECOTA. PECOTAs
feature a range of values, allowing readers to see the possible range and
probability of various performances by pitchers and hitters.

我們由PECOTA的預測來看看各隊的投手能耐，看看他們是否準備好了！

This study looks at a 50-percentile range, from the productive
75th-percentile level at one end and the poor 25th-percentile level at the
other.

PECOTA predicts equivalent ERA (eqERA), or ERA adjusted for ballparks,
defense and time in the minor leagues for younger players. The statistic
tries to erase factors that blur a pitcher’s true ability, such as pitching
in an extreme park like pitcher-friendly Petco Park in San Diego.

For example, Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay comes in with a 3.50 eqERA at the
75th percentile (meaning he has a 75 percent chance of an eqERA 3.50 or
higher) and a 4.81 eqERA at the 25th percentile (meaning he has a chance of
an eqERA 4.81 or higher).

Using the predicted eqERA and innings pitched for the most likely rotations,
the following table shows how the four teams fare at the high end of
performance:

75th percentile predictions
Team  Innings  eqERA
Tampa Bay  894  3.61
Boston  851 1/3  3.69
Toronto  904 2/3  3.77
New York  842  3.79


That is an impressive high-end target for the Rays, a rotation made up
entirely of youngsters (for this study, I used Jason Hammel instead of Edwin
Jackson, since he projects to be the better fifth starter). The Rays keep
that lead at the 25th percentile as well.

小魚的投手群不但秀色可餐，還具有相當的深度！

25th percentile predictions
Team  Innings  eqERA
Tampa Bay  721 1/3  4.90
Boston  651 2/3  5.15
Toronto  710  5.26
New York  651 2/3  5.38


Note that at the high end, the eqERAs spread out. The Rays go up about 1.3
runs, and the Yankees increase almost 1.6 runs. That’s another sign of the
quality of the rotation, a small spread between low and high eqERAs.

科科....我們贏了洋基

The tables don’t tell the whole story, however. The predicted innings
pitched put each team short of the 972 needed to average six innings per
start, close to the 2007 major-league average. The replacement pitchers who
make up those extra innings tend to be poor.

Last season, 602 starts (about 20 per team) went to pitchers who wound up
with fewer than 10 starts on the season. Their ERA in those starts was 6.24.
If we make up those missing innings with a 6.24 ERA, the teams look like
this:

eqERA Adjusted for 972 Innings
Team  75th Pct.  25th Pct.  Mid Point
Tampa Bay  3.82  5.24  4.53
Toronto  3.94  5.53  4.73
Boston  4.01  5.51  4.76
New York  4.12  5.64  4.88


Although Boston has an overall better five-man rotation in terms of eqERA,
Toronto’s rotation has more experience in the No. 4 and No. 5 slots, leading
to a higher prediction of innings pitched. That keeps poor starters out of a
job, and boosts the Blue Jays over the Red Sox. In a way, the Blue Jays are
the Baby Bear of the AL East. The backend of the Blue Jays’ rotation isn’t
too old, too young, but just right age to provide plenty of innings.

The wide range of possibilities for each team shows the difficulty in
choosing the best rotation. Most teams will experience a mix of good and bad
performances and probably end up near their midpoint.

Tampa Bay, however, stands a good chance of becoming the class of the AL
East. The Rays show strength in eqERA and innings pitched at every level.
With only three-tenths of a run separating the top from the bottom, these
four teams should produce great pitching matchups as they face each other 108
times during the 2008 season.

David Pinto writes and edits BaseballMusings.com and is a frequent
contributor to Sporting News.


--
「寫下這些日記的人，在重新踏上阿根廷的土地時，就已經死去。我，已經不再是我。」

               ---Che Guevara---

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