[農場] Prospect A to Z Day 2: Blake Snell

[csy1911 (招財貓)]

  Prospect A to Z 系列專題來到第二天，"B"的主角是今年籤海中選進的左投新秀Blake
Snell，在新人聯盟也有不錯的表現，讓我們來看看作者對他的評價吧！

  I don't actually have a whole lot to say about Blake Snell. I picked him for
the letter B because I want to talk about high school pitching in general,
but let's start with Snell's season. He was one the Rays gazillion
supplemental picks, 52nd overall. The left-hander signed quickly and got into
11 games for the GCL Rays, pitching 26.1 innings.

  其實我對Blake Snell無法做出太多評價。我選擇他做為字母"B"的代表，是因為我想大
略聊聊高中投手，來看看Snell的新秀賽季吧！他是今年光芒眾多補償選秀中的一員，在
第一輪52順位被選中，這位左投很快就被簽下，並為GCL Rays投了26.1局。

  26.1 innings in the lowest level of the minors hardly means much, but he did
strike out just under a batter per inning (26) and walked an acceptable 11.
He's tall and lean at 6-4/180 but there's some questions about his true
projectability because his frame doesn't look to allow for much more weight
to be added. Then again, his fastball is in the 88-92 mph range as is,
touching 94, so he's not hurting too badly there. As with almost all high
school pitcher, the development of his secondary stuff -- and his ability to
locate -- is key. He'll start the year in extended spring training and likely
pitch with Princeton in 2012.

  在最低階的聯盟投上26.1局並無法意味什麼，但他幾乎每局就能三振一位打者（26），
保送的次數也還能被接受（11），擁有6-4/180的身材，但他仍被預期存在一些問題，因
為他的肩寬太窄，使他看起來沒有太多長肉的空間。話說回來，他的直球大約在88-92mph
之間，最高可達94mph，看來並不造成太多困擾。跟大多數高中投手一樣，他成功的關鍵
在於第二球種的養成與把球控制在好的進壘點的能力。他明年球季將從延長春訓開始，接
下來應該會加入Princeton。

  The Rays, of course, had 12 of the first 89 picks in 2012. Snell was one of
just two high school pitchers in that group (the other was Taylor Guerrieri).
In fact, after Snell, the next high school pitcher selected was Jacob Faria
in the 10th round. This isn't really a new trend for the Rays. Here's the
list of high school pitching drafted (in the first 25 rounds) and signed
going back to 2008:

  光芒在今年選秀會中，前89個選秀權裡擁有12個。Snell在這12人中，是僅有的兩位高中
投手之一（另一位是我們家的狀元郎Taylor Guerrieri）。事實上，下一個被選中的高中
投手是第十輪的Jacob Faria。這不是光芒隊新的選秀策略，下面我整理出一份從2008年以
來高中投手被選中且簽約的名單（前25輪）：

選秀年份：被選球員（選秀輪次）

2008: Kyle Lobstein (2); Shawn Smith (9);
      Bradley Furdal (11); Jason McEachern (13); Trevor Shull (19)

2009: Kevin James (9); Andrew Bellatti (12); Jacob Partridge (18)

2010: Ian Kendall (5); Brandon Henderson (15); Matt Spann (25)

  Now, just because you aren't drafting high school pitching highly doesn't
mean you won't get a star (see: Matt Moore, eighth round) but clearly the
Rays haven't placed a premium on it, especially in the last three years. The
ones taken in the top 10 rounds have especially disappointed: Lobstein never
re-gained his fastball, Shawn Smith has totaled 67 innings in three years due
to injuries and personal issues, and Kevin James has walked more than a
hitter per inning.

  沒在高順位選中高中投手，並不意味著就不能養出一位明星球員（例如第八輪的Matt
Moore），但光芒明顯不再倚賴高中投手，尤其是最近三年，Lobstein從未重新找回他的
快速球；Shawn Smith這三年因為傷病與個人因素只投了67局；Kevin James則是保送比
投球局數還多。

  As a result, the pitching depth at the lower levels is lacking. McEachern,
Henderson, Spann, Bellatti, and Partridge are all somewhat intriguing, but
only Guerrieri is on the level that Wade Davis, Jake McGee, Jeremy
Hellickson, Matt Moore, and Nick Barnese (along with some flameouts like Matt
Walker) were at as short-season pitchers. Enny Romero and Felipe Rivero have
been nice international finds.

  因此，低階聯盟的相當缺乏投手深度，McEachern、Henderson、Spann、Bellatti和
Partridge的實力不明，只有Guerrieri的在短期比賽的投球等級較接近Wade Davis、
Jake McGee、Jeremy Hellickson、Matt Moore和Nick Barnese（與一些突然遇到瓶頸的
投手，如：Matt Walker），Enny Romero和Felipe Rivero則是國際新秀中不錯的收穫。

  My point? The pitching depth in the low levels is as weak as it's been for
at least a few years. The Rays haven't drafted high school pitching as much
and no lower-ceiling college picks have broken out (Merrill Kelly, Shane Dyer,
Devin Fuller) although they've recently gotten Jesse Hahn and Ryan Carpenter,
who don't fit that mold.

  你問我的看法？至少最近這幾年低階聯盟的投手深度是相當缺乏的。光芒不像過去選了
這麼多高中投手，天花板比較低的投手也沒有破繭而出（Merrill Kelly、Shane Dyer、
Devin Fuller），僅管最近獲得了Jesse Hahn和Ryan Carpenter，但他們仍未符合標準。

  If the bats they'd been drafting instead had worked out, then maybe this
isn't an issue. But the organization is thin between the guys at the top (Tim
Beckham, Hak-Ju Lee, Brandon Guyer) and the players several years away (Drew
Vettleson et al from the 2010 draft). This means the team might need Snell
(or Spann or Henderson etc) to work out more than you might think.

  如果過去幾年選中的幾位打者已有不錯的表現，那可能就不是什麼大問題。但高階農場
（Tim Beckham、Hak-Ju Lee、Brandon Guyer）和還需等待幾年成長的球員（Drew
Vettleson等2010選秀球員）之間有很大的斷層。這意味著球隊需要Snell、Spann、
Henderson等球員有超乎預期的成長。

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◆ From: 140.118.6.244
推 Edwardex    :推~
推 srysry      :Shawn Smith (9)被釋出  其實農場有些斷層....
→ srysry      :農場希望能一批批的養成順利..
推 Edwardex    :我覺得投手還好  主要是2A以下的投手沒有超級新秀...
推 qazwsdf     :投手超級新秀有今年的狀元阿  Barnese Colome也是
→ qazwsdf     :只是沒有投出變態的成績...天份還是夠的
推 Edwardex    :不好意思...更正  我是說A+以下  不過q大說的這兩位
→ Edwardex    :我也很期待  他們兩個明年就23歲了  再投不出來的話
→ Edwardex    :可能就有點危險了....希望他們也能break out
推 srysry      :回q大其實Colome也升到2a  相比下面農場投手新秀較少
→ srysry      :另外也是我們現在的投手新秀集中且強勢在2A-3A  ...
→ srysry      :還是要有點憂患意識  這篇倒是點出了這問題
→ srysry      :不過我相信TB農場的養成  希望在明年看到爆發
推 srysry      :另外C是Robinson Chirinos
推 qazwsdf     :因為一開始E大說2A以下阿XDD  低階農場中最穩定就屬
→ qazwsdf     :Jacob Thompson最穩定成長  不過表現不算太優
→ qazwsdf     :其實還有一些投手值得觀察  但是低階聯盟的表現實在
→ qazwsdf     :不能太過相信  很多升上A+就被打爆了
→ qazwsdf     :雖然08年後我們家的狀元表現不如預期     但我還是對
→ qazwsdf     :Taylor Guerrieri有信心!!
推 Edwardex    :還有今年剛升A+的C.J. Riefenhauser也值得期待~~
→ csy1911     :Thompson ERA不錯 但其實仔細看問題很多 尤其是H/9
推 qazwsdf     :他的WHIP也很高...進階數據來看他再升上去會被打爆