[外電] Proposed Trade: Billy Butler to the Rays

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Proposed Trade: Billy Butler to the Rays

by Jeff Zimmerman - June 1, 2011

With the Royals recently calling up Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler looks to have
been permanently moved to the DH spot. With Mike Moustakas ready to be called
up to take over third base, that leaves Wilson Betmit without a position.
Also, 27-year-old Clint Robinson (all hit, no field or run — a Billy Butler
clone) is knocking the leather off the ball in Triple-A. It is time for the
Royals to look at trading Butler to another team. The one team that screams
for some offensive production from either the 1B or DH spot is the Tampa Bay
Rays.

Billy Butler and the Royals

Billy Butler has been the best offensive player on the Royals over the last
few years. The Royals right now a glut of players that fit into the 1B/DH
role. There could be a case made for Kila Ka’aihue, Clint Robinson, Wilson
Betemit or Jeff Francoeur being moved to the Royals DH spot. With Hosmer
entrenched at 1B, Butler is expendable.

Just this offseason Butler signed a team-friendly extension of $3M for 2011,
$8M for 2012 to 2014 and $12M for 2015 (with a $1M buyout). Using these
values, I estimate how much surplus value in dollars Billy is worth if he
were traded half-way through the 2011 season:

Year    Salary  Age     $ (million)/WAR         pWAR w/UBR      Value($ Millions        Surplus
(1/2 2011 season)
2011    3       25      4.5     2.5     11.3    4.1
2012    8       26      5       2.5     12.5    4.5
2013    8       27      5       2.2     11.0    3.0
2014    8       28      5.5     1.9     10.5    2.5
2015    12      29      5.5     1.6     8.8     -3.2
                        Total =         10.7    Total =         10.9

Using the entire length of the contract, Butler looks to have surplus value
of around $11M. Now if his $1M buyout is enacted, his surplus value jumps to
$13M.

A note on how things can change in a week. I ran the values initially before
Fangraphs added in UBR (baserunning values into the WAR calculation). Before
the values were added, Butler looked to be near a 3 WAR player. He loses
close to 0.5 WAR each season due to his baserunning. Using the WAR from just
over a week ago, the surplus value of his contract had an extra 2.25 total
WAR added to it leading to a total surplus value of $22.5M. Who says speed
doesn’t matter?

The Void That Is 1B and DH for the Rays

From 2010 to so far in the 2011 season the Rays have accumulated 41.2 WAR
from their position players. Over that same time frame, the DH and 1B
position have added 1.3 WAR (1.5 from 1B and -0.2 WAR from the DH position)
to that total or 3.2% of the team’s position player WAR. In the last two
seasons, the Rays have used such players as Dan Johnson, Carlos Pena, Casey
Kotchman, Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, Brad Hawpe, Hank Blalock, Rocco
Baldelli, Pat Burrell and Willy Aybar at that those 2 positions. Butler
accumulated 3.7 WAR over that same time frame.

The Rays seem to pride themselves with their defense, so Butler, a horrible
defensive player, would be an affordable DH. Having Butler as the DH would
probably give the Rays an extra one or two wins worth of production this
season. In the ultra competitive AL East, those wins could be quite important
at the end of the season.

The Royals will probably begin looking at the Rays top prospects to find
needed help. The Rays have a fairly stacked minor league system with several
top prospects such as the following players ranked in BA top 100 for 2011:

6. Jeremy Hellickson, rhp
15. Matt Moore, lhp
22. Desmond Jennings, of
27. Chris Archer, rhp
71. Jake McGee, lhp
88. Josh Sale, of
92. Hak-Ju Lee, ss

Using the work of Sky Kalkman and expanded on by ColinJ, the preceding
prospect’s surplus value would range from $16.3M (Jake McGee) to $33.3M
(Desmond Jennings). All of the player surplus values would be worth more than
Butler’s surplus value. The one item that the Rays need to take into account
is the how much extra it would be worth to the team to make the playoffs this
year.

The Proposed Trade

The Royals are in need of starting pitching this season and in the future, so
it would best for them to try to get a starting pitcher from the Rays. Since
McGee has already begun his MLB career and thereby having a little less trade
value, I see him as a nice trade option for the Rays to send the Royals for
Butler. Another possible option would be for the Royals to look at trying to
get a couple lower rated pitching prospects like Alex Torres, Alex Colome,
Jake Thompson or Alex Cobb (which has made his major league debut, but was
not as highly rated as the other pitchers at the beginning of the season).

The best trades are the ones that work out for both sides. In this trade, I
feel that both sides come out ahead. The Royals move one of their many 1B/DH
types for starting pitching they need. Tampa on the other hand, gets some
much need help at the 1B or DH position and gives up one of their pitching
prospects, but not one of their best pitching prospects.


皇家Billy Butler有機會來光芒?!

敢汙口寧?

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◆ From: 61.20.159.81
※ 編輯: ComboKing       來自: 61.20.159.81         (06/02 09:28)
推 immortalqq  :小胖子來也可以啦 只是薪水一直是我們concern的點
推 Edwardex    :對我們來說有點貴....不過風險比交易夏威夷人或
→ Edwardex    :其他一壘新秀要來的小多了......
→ Edwardex    :另外不知道他的一壘守備如何....有人知道嗎??@@
推 sarserror   :找Clint Robinson呀!
推 immortalqq  :小胖子一壘手的很.......不怎麼樣
推 ckevint     :不是因為他的防守很...才變成專職DH嘛?XD
推 Edwardex    :應該跟夏威夷人及吼獅魔的守備較好也有關係~
推 IVIVI       :我覺得安豬不會買這種才剛簽肥約的球員 我也覺得他不
→ IVIVI       :值那麼多 以他的位置跟成績來看
推 zxzxas      :專職DH 我們也有了 不缺吧...
推 IVIVI       :另外我覺得簽了他對我們今年的戰績會有多大的提升 打
→ IVIVI       :擊方面Butler也是安打型 打點能力也不算太突出 而烤
→ IVIVI       :雞今年至今的打擊成績並不輸他 至於守備能力我也小胖
→ IVIVI       :不是很熟 但基本上很難贏烤雞 像今天那支2RBI安打如
→ IVIVI       :果是烤雞來守 絕對是能處理掉
推 csy1911     :Butler的防守爛到爆炸 Kotchman現在表現很好ㄚ
→ csy1911     :除非真的有賺 不然我覺得現在的陣形不差
→ csy1911     :不用急著交易
推 lusanova    :烤雞好像只有一年短約,明年1B還是個問題
推 Edwardex    :一壘和DH這兩個位置  目前基本上大門和烤雞很穩
→ Edwardex    :但大門只簽一年  烤雞明年結束變FA  我們還是需要
→ Edwardex    :一壘或DH的長期解答  皇家缺SP而一壘砲手多到沒位置
→ Edwardex    :而我們是SP多到滿出來  和皇家交易是勢在必行的....
→ Edwardex    :只是不一定要Bulter  夏威夷人或Robinson也可試試
推 srysry      :DH考慮明年的話  Guyer和Jennings差不多都會升上來
→ srysry      :DH 打數應該會給Joyce去補  至於一壘手的部分
→ srysry      :烤雞我沒記錯是佛羅里達人  當初簽他有部分考量家鄉
→ srysry      :如果他能維持狀況到明星賽  或許安豬會跟他談合約
→ srysry      :另外跟皇家交易  還是要看要價  另外我們小聯盟投手
→ srysry      :投的好不算多  以交易的點  恐怕會被凹不小就是
推 Edwardex    :恩  7月後再看看吧....如果屆時無競爭力  BJ 盾哥
→ Edwardex    :尼門都是熱門交易人選......
推 Seele11     :Kotchman如果能維持手感應該有機會多留幾年...畢竟還
→ Seele11     :還有不錯的手套 真要談交易1B的話不盤個砲管來總是
→ Seele11     :不划算..尤其又在美東 私心希望盾哥今年投好 明年還
→ Seele11     :能看他在開幕先發...q
推 Seele11     :早上對水手 盾哥要強碰King...其實兩個投手性質很像
→ Seele11     :就看打線捧不捧場...
推 ckevint     :DH好解決 主要還是1B呀 Clint應該比Butler還難交易
→ ckevint     :畢竟年輕 而且其實差不多類型 有看到說Clint也準備好
→ ckevint     :要上了 所以皇家應該一定會留Clint 這樣只有他跟夏威
→ ckevint     :夷人在考慮了 但 真的覺得這兩個都不太好...
→ ckevint     :個人觀點還是傾向去盤個任意野手然後放去練1B...
推 Seele11     :感覺Joyce練1B 把Zoby放RF不知道會不會好點 Zoby今年
推 Seele11     :守2b好像不是很穩 而且其實感覺香肉守2B守得還不錯..
→ ckevint     :S大這方法也行 不過還是傾向zoby在內野 上次有場好抖
→ catsondbs   :我仍然覺得1B易找(雖然我們超缺) 把還可以的RF拉進來
→ catsondbs   :太浪費了
→ catsondbs   :內野現在少了不懂打擊的Brignac  只好讓Zobrist 2B
→ catsondbs   :S-Rod SS  我覺得Zoby暫時是一直要留在內野了
推 IVIVI       :Zoby最近的失誤都超關鍵的 幾乎都會失分 香肉這段時
→ IVIVI       :間內野的表現只能算是替補工具人 防守對今年的我們特
→ IVIVI       :別重要 最近失誤變多 輸球也變多了 守備好能給投手、
→ IVIVI       :球隊的安定感 沒收安打更能使敵我雙方士氣消漲 防守
→ IVIVI       :野球才是王道
推 lusanova    :大推光芒防守野球