http://fantasybaseballhotstove.blogspot.com/2010/11/desmond-jennings-player-projection-no.html

For the third straight year, Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove will be profiling one
player per day starting the day after the World Series ends and counting down
to the top player in fantasy baseball. With March 31 just 149 days away, we
begin today with player number 149.

Key Stats: Desmond Jennings stole 37 bases for AAA Durham in 109 games last
year. That projects to 55 steals at the MLB level. Now I know that MLB
pitchers are generally better at holding runners on and catchers generally
have stronger arms (more on the transition below), but consider that only
Juan Pierre had more than 55 steals in all of baseball last season, and only
Pierre and Michael Bourn stole more than 50. Both players were ranked in the
top 125.

Skeptics Say: The last two years, FBHS has gone with a rookie on day one of
the countdown. The last two years, Matt Wieters and Stephen Strasburg have
failed to deliver on their pre-draft hype for different reasons. Rookies
historically carry more risk than reward in baseball, but it's just no fun
picking a boring veteran on day one. Everyone would rather have the latest
fashion than a sold pear of jeans, but the jeans almost always have greater
longevity.

Jennings could have the same problems Wieters has had adjusting to MLB
pitching, and the same problem many great steals players have had through the
years (Willy Taveras, Rajai Davis) trying to steal first. His OPS was an
uninspiring .756 at AAA last season. He also could face the same problems
Strasburg had in staying healthy. He tore his meniscus in 2007 and played in
only 24 games in 2008 while battling back problems.

Peer Comparison: Here is a look at how speedsters have done in their last
full year in MiLB compared to their first full year in MLB.

Ricky Henderson - 81 SB in MiLB, 100 SB in MLB
Jacoby Ellsbury - 41 SB in MiLB, 50 SB in MLB
Pierre - 66 SB in MiLB, 46 SB in MLB
Carl Crawford - 36 SB in MiLB, 55 SB in MLB
Bourn - 45 SB in MiLB, 41 SB in MLB
Scott Podsednik - 35 SB in MiLB, 43 SB in MLB

Of course there are those that don't work out for whatever reason:

Alexi Casilla - 50 SB in MiLB, 11 SB in MLB
Alcides Escobar - 42 SB in MiLB, 10 SB in MLB
Everth Cabrera - 73 SB in MiLB, 25 SB in MLB
Elvis Andrus - 54 SB in MiLB, 33 SB in MLB

Lineup Outlook: Carl Crawford has hit .300, scored at least 89 runs, and
stolen at least 46 bases in every season since 2005 with the exception of
2008. That is a huge void being left. And there are numerous stories out
there including this one from the TV station that covers the Red Sox that
seem to think Jennings will have no trouble replacing Crawford. That's a good
deal of pressure. There are several reasons that Jennings should not have to
totally replace Crawford for Tampa to be as competitive as they were a year
ago. First, Carlos Pena and his sub 200 average could also be gone. Second,
with fellow rookie Jeremy Hellickson on staff, the pitching can still carry
this team. Third, only Jason Bartlett will be older than 30 on Opening Day -
most players on this roster should improve slightly on their 2009 seasons.

What They're Saying: ESPN.com: Not Ranked in Top 30 Outfielders

Projection: As seen in the peer comparison, the thing that seperates Jennings
from other rookies is that his greatest statistical asset is something you
probably won't have to wait for.
82 R 4 HR 52 RBI 45 SB .280 AVG .730 OPS