http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/5questions_devilrays/
As if it ever was, 2004 is not a good season to be a Tampa Bay Devil Rays
fan. While the team has made a few additions to gradually improve themselves,
they have some company in this division. New York and Boston rule the
division, each having payrolls that more than quintuple the team we’ll see
on Tropicana Field this year. Toronto has improved themselves, and Peter
Angelos threw millions of dollars to improve the Orioles. While the Devil
Rays can say they improved themselves, Jose Cruz just doesn’t compare with
Alex Rodriguez, Curt Schilling, Miguel Tejada, or even Miguel Batista.
This organization has always been a little slow. While I’m shocked that
Chuck LaMar still has a job, it’s possible Devil Ray ownership has forgotten
about their club. And as for LaMar, he spends each off season ignoring the
fact that his team gives up an insane amount of runs each year. No, Damian
Moss and Mike Williams don’t count as improvements, and the Devil Rays must
use their farm system to build a staff. The last time the team drafted a
pitcher first was Dewon Brazelton, and that hasn’t gone so well.
Lucky for the Devil Rays, help is on the way. The team has had one of the top
two selections in the last two drafts, signing amateur players B.J. Upton and
Delmon Young to big bonuses. They have the fourth pick in the upcoming draft,
and will likely use it on pitching. Tampa must be realistic about their
goals: 2004 is not their year. Nor is 2005, 2006, or 2007. But looking down
the road, the team is assembling the right group of players to finally put
Tampa on the Major League Baseball map.
1) Historically, how are the Devil Rays in terms of other expansion teams?
In 1998, Major League baseball expanded to thirty Major League teams by
adding the Arizona Diamondbacks and Tampa Bay Devil Rays. While fans in
Phoenix have been treated to a World Series championship, those unfortunate
Tampa followers can’t buy a win. Frustration is quickly mounting in Tampa, I
mean, they’ve already survived talk of contraction. But this expansion
hopelessness is part of the process, and it’s the Diamondbacks, not the
Devil Rays, that are the exception.
Currently, fourteen of the thirty Major League teams debuted after 1960.
After six years, six of these organizations had a combined winning percentage
under .400. Remember, this means that three-sevenths of the expansion teams
averaged less than 64.8 wins a season in their first six years in the league.
The fourteen ranked by win percentage:
TEAM W%
Diamondbacks .539
Rockies .484
Royals .478
Angels .477
Marlins .450
Expos .440
Brewers .428
Astros .414
Mariners .399
Devil Rays .393
Rangers .393
Blue Jays .381
Padres .368
Mets .331
Believe it or not, there have been worse than the Devil Rays. The Padres and
Mets futility has been well-documented, 66 wins is the most for either team
in their first six seasons. Toronto and Texas both got off to disastrous
starts only to see their fates improve gradually. The Astros' number is
deceiving -- the team was between 64 and 72 wins their first seven Major
League seasons.
So when did the sub-.400 teams get some winning? Toronto had a winning record
the next year, and won the division in their ninth season. Seattle fans
waited all the way until their 15th year, nine more years to get a winning
team. The Rangers and Padres both had winning record within four years, and
the Mets in their eighth season, not only reached .500, but also won the
World Series. Devil Rays fans have a reason to hope, and should pray they
don’t suffer Seattle’s fate.
2) Can the Devil Rays' wild starter learn control?
Only twelve times in history has a pitcher walked over 100 men, hit over 20
batters, and thrown 15 or more wild pitches. While the event didn't receive a
lot of press last season, Victor Zambrano joined that illustrious group with
his 2003 performance. The amazing thing about the Devil Ray is that he was
the first to do it since 1900, the definition of a wild pitcher. In fact,
Zambrano won the "wildness triple crown" in 2003, leading his league in each
of the aforementioned categories.
While Zambrano gets into trouble walking way too many guys, he doesn't allow
a lot of hits. Of pitchers throwing more than 180 innings last year, Zambrano
gave up the fifth least amount of hits. His H/9 was also good enough for
fifth in the American League, which indicates very good stuff. But while
walking 100 guys normally coincides with high strikeout totals, Zambrano's
K/9 was only 6.31.
In the last sixty years, only seven pitchers have come close to Zambrano's
walk and hitting totals and his strikeout and hit rates while in Victor's age
bracket: Tony Cloninger (1969), Jose DeJesus (1991), Walt Masterson (1948),
Allie Reynolds (1943), Don Schwall (1962), Earl Wilson (1962), and Bobby Witt
(1992). The best comparison is Earl Wilson, who had a very similar line to
Zambrano's a year ago:
W L ERA ERA+ IP H SO BB
Zambrano 2003 12 10 4.21 108 188.1 165 132 106
Wilson 1962 12 8 3.90 106 191.1 163 137 111Eerily
similar season, and it happened at the same age as well. This comparison
bodes very well for Zambrano, as Wilson had 40 wins in 1966 and 1967
combined. Another good comparison who just missed the above list is Russ
Ortiz, who had similar troubles as a 25-year-old in San Francisco. Ortiz,
while receiving fantastic run support, has won 88 games in his six-year
career, including topping the 20-win mark in 2003.
Although it’s possible Victor Zambrano becomes the next Jose DeJesus, his
better comparisons are Earl Wilson and Russ Ortiz, which should look very
appealing to Devil Ray brass.
3) Will Carl Crawford and Rocco Baldelli give the scouts a win over the
sabermetricians?
Someone forgot to tell Carl Crawford and Rocco Baldelli that you have to walk
before you run. See, Baldelli and Crawford have started their young careers
out with contact and speed, not utilizing the base on balls option that
stands before them. It is this that holds Crawford from becoming a great
leadoff hitter, and what makes the DiMaggio-Baldelli comparisons silly.
Both Crawford and Baldelli were blessed with amazing God-given speed. Lou
Pineilla used this well last year, getting more than eighty stolen bases
between the two combined. But Lou should have first been preaching the means
to get on base, the walk. Crawford is one of only seven active players to
have more stolen bases than walks, but his ratio is by far the most dramatic.
Baldelli had only three more walks last season, and is destined to join this
group should he not improve his ways. Do these guys not realize they could
steal more bases if they walked more?
A significant problem for both Crawford and Baldelli is how batting average
dependent they are. Baldelli’s 184 hits is the fifth most for any player
under 25 with an OBP under .330. Crawford’s 177 ranks third on a similar
list but the OBP cutoff being .310. This represents a group of players that
struggle to walk, but have the ability to make consistent contact.
Rocco did something very unique last year on his quest to achieve an OPS
under .750. Baldelli showed both average (.289) and power (51 XBH), but
lacked the walks and home runs necessary for a high OPS. Yes, he’s the
Moneyball anti-Christ. Only two other hitters accomplished Baldelli, and
funny enough, one is Terrence Long. The other, Roberto Kelly, works as a very
good Baldelli comparison. Kelly teased scouts for years, but proved a .290
career batting average is only good on the surface. Baldelli should follow a
similar path, staying at the same level or even gradually improving before
taking a hard dive later in his career.
For the Devil Rays to be expecting a lot from these players is wrong, a
prolonged slump would leave them with a disastrously bad season. But lucky
for LaMar, there is offensive help on the way in Tampa...
4) Who and what does B.J. Upton profile to be?
Pardon the Devil Rays if they are a little skeptical, this is the
organization that had high hopes for Josh Hamilton. They are pouring millions
of dollars into Upton’s bat, and his success is key to this organization. In
Aubrey Huff, Delmon Young and Upton, the Devil Rays have three potential
superstars for the future.
Yes, Upton’s defense is scary. 56 errors at any level is unacceptable, but
Upton’s defensive tools are thought of highly. He could turn into the next
Derek Jeter on defense, which is not exactly a compliment (I’m sorry
McCarver).
But it’s on offense where Upton shines. In the last 25 years, twenty
shortstops have had seasons with on-base percentages over .375. Of this
group, twelve were in the minor leagues during their age nineteen season,
which Upton had last year. B.J. would rank third on this list of extra-base
hits, coming in right after Alex Rodriguez and Jay Bell. Upton is fourth in
stolen bases behind Rafael Furcal, Jose Offerman, and Julio Franco.
Due to Upton’s power/speed combination, I’m inclined to compare him to the
last name, Julio Franco. At age nineteen, Franco spent the year hitting .321
in the Carolina League, mixing in 42 extra-base hits and 44 steals. The super
prospect has had a long career, but has left the prophecies of his youth
unfulfilled. Franco did go as far to win a batting title, and improve the
plate discipline that had plagued him in his minor league days.
One fundamental difference between Franco and Upton’s age 19 season was
plate discipline, as Upton walked forty more times than Julio. In fact, the
only name on the top 20 list that tops him is Jeff Blauser, who saw his plate
discipline drop a bit in the Major Leagues. It will be Upton’s ability to
either improve upon his discipline like Franco and Derek Jeter have, or
instead suffer the Blauser consequence.
Anyways, B.J. Upton is a big-time prospect. There is no one player that
compares well, he’s a more powerful Jeter, a quicker Trammell, or a smarter
Franco. But you put those three together, and you have a franchise player.
5) Can Tino Martinez bring anything to the field this year?
“Tino brings leadership that we need... We had good leadership last season,
but your leaders need to be on the field.”
- Chuck Lamar, Devil Rays GM
It was all too predictable. Who could acquire Tino Martinez without
mentioning leadership? Unfortunately for the Devil Rays, leading by example
is the best form of leadership, and Tino just can’t hack it anymore. So the
real question here is, who would try to acquire Tino Martinez?
No other position in baseball draws the offensive expectations that first
base does. This player should be a key run producer, a sole power source.
Martinez has done a wonderful job of masking his offensive skills, leading
GMs to believe he’s a viable option at first. Tino Martinez has six 100 RBI
seasons in his career, which makes subpar GMs (i.e. Chuck Lamar) drool. Tino
is seen as a run producer, but instead is the product of good teams. His
teams have been over .500 every year since 1994, more a testament to his
ex-teammates than to Tino.
Despite the RBIs, Martinez is a terrible offensive first basemen. In the last
25 years, only five first basemen have five or more sub-.800 OPS seasons. As
you might expect, Tino Martinez is on this list. Oh, but he’s a winner,
right? By using Win Shares, a Bill James statistic quantifying a players
contributions, Tino falls quite short. Last season 11 Win Shares, the
fourth-worst total of MLB 1B regulars, contributing only 3.6 wins to an
85-win team. By comparison, Travis Lee had thirteen Win Shares.
Furthermore, Martinez sports terrible splits of late. Martinez is very
platoonable, hitting only .237/.302/.411 against southpaws in the last three
years. Tampa has platoon options, but will Lou Piniella actually bench his
veteran? Also, Martinez was awful hittting away from Busch Stadium since
becoming a Cardinal, hitting .260/.333/.417 in 2003 and .236/.301/.388 in
2002 away from home. Will this trend continue, or will Tropicana produce
Busch-like results?
Yes, I concede that Tino Martinez came cheap. Tino (with 93% of his salary
paid) for a minor league reliever with no Major League experience? What Chuck
LaMar has failed to realize is that players come cheap for a reason. It wasn’
t Evan Rust that was particularly attractive to Walt Jocketty, it was losing
Martinez. Some GMs can realize that veteran leadership doesn’t win games,
runs do.
In Closing...
The Devil Rays are going to have a rough year. The infield of Martinez, Lugo,
Rey Sanchez, and Geoff Blum should be the league’s worst, and the pitching
staff has no depth. Tampa has to play too many games against AL East rivals
to think about breaking the seventy win barrier. The team’s focus should
turn to the minor leagues, and laying the proper foundation for a ninety-win
team. Forget Lou Piniella’s guarantee the team won’t finish last, they’ll
be in last by at least ten games.
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