[外電] Scouting Report: Josh Lueke

[csy1911 (招財貓)]

  這篇球探報告寫在今年季中，Lueke當時被選為水手Top 20新秀。一起來看看隨著他升上
Major以後，評價有什麼變化吧！

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MFR Top 20 Prospects: #19 Josh Lueke

Posted on August 4, 2011

原文：http://ppt.cc/ExUB

Josh Lueke
Position: RHP | Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Born: 12/5/1984 | Height: 6'5" | Weight: 220
Hometown: Highland Heights, Kentucky
Acquired: Via trade from Texas, 7/9/10 (In package for Cliff Lee)

Grades

Fastball: 60

  Lueke brings a fastball that's heavy with some run on it in the 94-96 MPH
range, and can dial it up a little higher than that when needed.  He can
really bear down and make batters uncomfortable with it, and with the
movement he can get on the pitch, it works well either setting up his
breaking pitches or working backwards and pitching off them.

  Lueke的速球有很棒的尾勁，速度在94-96之間，需要時還可以更快。這顆球能有效的解
決打者，隨著尾勁的增加，還能建立起變化球的威力。

Splitter 60

  Lueke's best pitch, and I very seriously considered giving this a higher
grade. When he's on, it's probably the best splitter I've seen among active
pitchers. It can look similar to his fastball coming out of his hand, and
indeed stays so for much of it's journey to the plate. Then, it drops from
around letter high to somewhere between the hitter's knees and ankles by the
time it hits the catcher's glove (or the dirt, depending on the catcher).
Unfortunately, it has the drawback of all splitters in that sometimes even when
he's right, it just won't bite, and when it doesn't it's a murderable pitch.

  指叉球是Lueke最棒的球種，我非常認真考慮是不是要給它更高的分數。只要在狀態內，
也許是我看過現役投手中最棒的指叉球。出手時很像直球，進入本壘板時會停留一段很長
的時間，然後進到手套時會掉到打者膝蓋或腳踝的位置(或落地，由捕手配球決定)。不幸
的，所有的指叉球都有個缺點，即使投手狀況不錯，下墜幅度就是不夠大，到時就不是可
靠的決勝球了。

Slider 50

  The slider is Lueke's most mercurial pitch. At times, it's even more vicious
than the splitter, but at others it's a very mediocre pitch. At it's best,
it comes in at a different angle than the splitter, but breaks at almost the
same point, making it harder to sit on one or the other.  However, it can turn
pretty slurvy and hittable at times as well, and in general isn't as effective
as his other two pitches.

  滑球是Lueke變化幅度最大的球種，有時甚至比指叉球還要大，但在別人眼中就是個平凡
的球路。好的時候，滑球可以從不同於指叉球的角度進壘，然後在相同的位置變化，使對
手很難掌握。然而，有時移動不是這麼漂亮，且容易被打出去。這顆球不像前面提到的兩
種球路有效。

Command 50

  Lueke in general has quite good control of his fastball, but his overall
command is a different story.  He keeps it in the strike zone well, but can
let his pitches elevate too much at times, leaving him vulnerable to talented
(read: major-league calibre) hitters.  While his fastball is good, he doesn't
have the pure oompf on it that you need to stay up in that area. When
Lueke is able to keep his fastball down, he can dominate.

  Lueke對於速球的控制不錯，但整體來說又是另一回事了。速球能控制在好球帶，但無法
讓他的投球表現成長太多，甚至被大聯盟水準的打者狙擊。雖然直球很棒，但卻無法投到
指定的進壘位置。如果可以壓低球路，Lueke會是個有壓制力的投手。

  註：Control和Command字面上都是控制的意思，但實際上……

      Control指的是把球投進好球帶的能力。
      Command指的是把球投進捕手手套的能力。

      簡單說，Command比Control的層級更高，有好的Control不一定有好的Command，但
      好的Command就意味著有出色的Control。

      要Lueke把球投進好球帶不是問題，但能否投進好的進壘點，是他更上層樓的關鍵。

Mechanics

  Lueke's mechanics bear no major red flags, though like many relievers I
wouldn't be terribly comfortable with them in a starting role.  He throws a
little bit across his body, but with his arsenal and in that role, it helps
to aid the deception on his pitches.  The ball comes out in a pretty normal
3/4 arm slot, but it fits his arsenal well.  Sometimes his mechanics get a
little loose and his slot drops a bit, leading his pitches to flatten out and
costing him velocity at times.

  Lueke的投球機制不是大問題，雖然就像許多後援投手，我不認為他適合先發的角色。投
球時有些前傾，但球路和動作幫助可以他有效的欺騙打者。正常的3/4出手，但很適合搭配
他的武器。偶爾動作會跑掉，出手的位置會低一點，導致球路太平，球速下滑。

Overall

  As a reliever, Lueke has everything you want to see. Three pitches that can
be vicious, good enough command to not walk the world, and a bulldog's
mentality that is typical of late-inning relievers, and even suits a closer's
role.  Consistency is the major thing holding him back at this stage, and
there's little reason to think that he cannot reach something near his
potential as a reliever.

  作為後援投手，Lueke有你期待的所有東西，三種可以壓制打者的球路；至少不投出保送
的控球；積極競爭的心態，典型的後段局數投手，甚至適合擔任終結者。保持穩定是他能
否站穩腳跟最大的因素，幾乎找不到任何理由認為他無法成為預期的後援投手。

  As a human being, however… well, let's just say there are questions. I won't
go in to Lueke's past here, but suffice it to say that he has some dark clouds
behind him. I'll let you do your own research on the matter and draw your own
conclusions, but I will say that I am at times… uneasy with the situation. If
anything will hold back his professional career, it is that.

  以上討論的都是一位棒球員，但作為一個平凡人……好吧，我們只能說有點問題。不想
談論過多，但他過去有些不光彩的事。有時我會對這樣的情況感到不安，如果說有什麼事
會影響他的職業生涯，應該就是這件事了。

  At the same time, however, talent trumps all in professional sports, and
Lueke has plenty of that.  He's as legit a relief prospect as they come, and
now that he's back in the majors, his career might be about to take off in a
big way.

  但同時，在職業賽場上，天分才是最重要的，而Lueke有很多潛力。作為一位合格的後援
新秀，現在回到了大聯盟，他的生涯也許正走在偉大的道路上。

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  在認識Josh Lueke的過程中，去ESPN看了他在去年的表現，意外發現一件事，儘管全年
表現不佳，但表現最差的時間集中在四月，四月底被下放到AAA維修後，表現進步不少，
來比較一下

                IP    ERA  SO  BB   H  HR   AVG  WHIP  Strike%
          全年 32.2  6.06  29  13  34   2  .270  1.44   63.0%

  維修前--四月  6.1 17.05   8   6  12   1  .429  2.84   56.7%

  維修後--七月  4.0  2.25   3   0   3   0  .200  0.75   77.8%

          八月 12.2  3.55   9   4  13   1  .255  1.34   61.9%

          九月  9.2  3.72   9   3   6   0  .188  0.93   64.6%

  明顯在調整後成績進步很多，還算值得期待。

  最後來說說我對這筆交易的看法，Lueke今年最被詬病的，就是往往在關鍵時刻自爆，頂
不住壓力，對於光芒這種打低比分的球隊來說，這可是很要命的缺點。另一個我認為這筆
交易有點小賠的原因：在水手人滿為患的牛棚裡，比Lueke表現更好的大有人在，而我們卻
用交易價值最高的捕手，換來一個連擠進對方牛棚都有困難的角色，我不清楚版友的看法
如何，但恕我難以給這個交易高分。交易是以當下的價值來衡量，因此就算Lueke養起來，
或是Jaso死屍化，還是不會影響我對這筆交易的評價。

  另外DRaysBay有另一篇Lueke的介紹：http://ppt.cc/(rtY，有點難，有興趣的版友可以
翻譯，這篇是把Lueke比作Brandon Gomes，要是兩隻的養成順利，那我們的牛棚又會是生
機盎然的景象。:)

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 140.118.6.244
推 Linkin      :有看有推，感謝分享
推 srysry      :我覺得RP評比還是要考慮一下近況  一開始爆很大很難
→ srysry      :洗低  並且他Stuff確實不錯 並且新秀確實要多練練
→ srysry      :另外Jaso是否已經算站穩MLB 我個人會持比較保留..
→ srysry      :畢竟TB之前的那肥也威過一年 結果後來也就持續低迷
→ srysry      :另外如果以Raysindex 評比的交易價值的表
→ srysry      :Jaso的交易價值比Chirinos和Lobaton還低
→ srysry      :可以懷疑他的算法  但也是以種觀點提供Csy打參考
→ srysry      :http://www.raysindex.com/category/tvi 圖表在此
推 srysry      :不過Lobaton冬聯也沒打很好就是...交易結果我傾向
→ srysry      :給未來結果來決定 不然新秀的交易可能都會低估
→ csy1911     :感謝s大的意見，有些點是我沒有思考到的~~
推 Edwardex    :別忘了還有一個PTBNL  不過我跟s大一樣猜換錢XDDDD
推 srysry      :討論互相補不足  Csy大大也給出我一開始沒想到的
推 catsondbs   :TheRaysWay有一篇Lueke的球種詳細分析 還分左右split
→ catsondbs   :喔喔 就是c大最後推薦那一篇 仔細到很難吃下去 Orz
推 catsondbs   :我也是覺得RaysIndex這表看看就好 這算法不太好
→ catsondbs   :Lueke養起來+Jaso死屍化還不能高分c大標準太高了吧XD
  應該說我覺得交易牽涉到RP(除非等級或數量差很多，例如：Rafael Soriano交易案，或
是Barlett交易案，而且當時我們出的都是最不缺的位置)就不太聰明，加上我們出的是養
成最難的捕手，以影響勝負的能力來說，捕手比後援投手高出很多。以FA來說，RP的數量
也多過C。以Rays的建隊風格，過沒幾年牛棚又是打掉重練，如果最後Lueke沒能「長期」
「站穩」後段局數的角色，對短期的Rays，Peralta或是Cruz的等級也夠用了，這種類型的
投手在FA並不算稀有，也不必付出很高的薪資。

  以潛力來說，Lueke只比Jaso小一歲，即使踏進職業的時間較短，養成空間較大，但也27
歲了…也因此我並不認為這完全是新秀交易(都處於再沒有進一步的成長，就會失去舞台的
年紀，而我願意等待捕手更長的時間)。當然最嚴重的還是本文提到他容易自爆的問題，如
果不能解決這個問題，以光芒目前球員的精華時期，實在沒有幾年甚至是幾場比賽讓他這
樣玩。當然我還是認同Lueke的Stuff，他有接closer的天份，也因此我對他的期待比對
Gomes還深。

  儘管今年成績不理想(有聲音認為是因為他的傷勢)，但Jaso的打擊還是捕手群裡最成熟
的，而Molina最強的就防守，因此我本來很期待Jaso在Molina調教後，會不會把以往糟糕
的防守修好，如果到時還是證明不行再丟也不遲…。
※ 編輯: csy1911         來自: 111.251.144.16       (12/01 09:34)
推 Darksmith   :建隊路線可能是團隊防守加上投手戰力