推 RollingWave:慘, 被養壞的慘案 10/17 18:23
http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2007/9/24/145553/591
Case Study: Dewon Brazelton
By John Sickels
Posted on Mon Sep 24, 2007 at 01:55:53 PM CDT
Case Study: Dewon Brazelton
Dewon Brazelton was a college star at Middle Tennessee State, going 13-2,
1.42 his junior year with a 154/24 K/BB ratio in 127 innings, allowing just
82 hits. Middle Tennessee State doesn't play the best competition in the
world, but Brazelton also thrived from Team USA, eliminating any doubts
scouts had about his performance against strong competition. In college he
showed a 94-97 MPH fastball with movement, an outstanding changeup, and sharp
control. His curveball was mediocre, and improving it was the main thing he
needed to do as he transitioned into pro ball. The Devil Rays made him the
third-overall pick in the 2001 draft, and he was projected to reach Tampa Bay
by 2003 at the latest. It was not a controversial selection, and I gave him a
Grade B+ in the 2002 book.
Brazelton began 2002 in Double-A, going 5-9 but with a fine 3.33 ERA in 26
starts for Orlando, with a 109/67 K/BB in 146 innings. He made one start in
Triple-A, throwing five shutout innings, then finished the year with a couple
of mediocre starts for the major league team. He continued to show a 93-95
MPH fastball, although some concerns were expressed that it was rather
straight, and the strong changeup. His curveball, however, remained erratic,
and this was reflected in his K/IP ratio which has slightly below Southern
League average. I gave him a Grade B+ in the 2003 book, but warned that he
needed a full dose of Triple-A to polish the breaking ball, and that the
Devil Rays would likely regret it if they rushed him ahead of schedule.
The D-Rays sent Brazelton to Triple-A to open the 2003 season. He went 2-2,
4.21 in five starts with an 18/11 K/BB ratio, at which point he was promoted
to the majors and inserted into the rotation. He pitched very poorly,
overthrowing and losing the touch on his command. His curveball and changeup
both regressed, his confidence fell apart, and in late June he was demoted
all the way back to Single-A, to try and rebuild his game. He did not pitch
well in the California League, going 1-5, 5.26 with a 42/19 K/BB in 50
innings and 62 hits allowed. He pitched a bit better late in the year,
earning a promotion back to Double-A where he went 2-0, 2.53 in two starts.
But '03 was clearly a disastrous season for him all-around. To try and right
the ship, the Rays sent Brazelton to the Arizona Fall League to work on his
mechanics and his curveball. He performed well there, and went into spring
training 2004 with a chance to win a spot in the major league rotation once
again.
Brazelton pitched fairly well in spring training but opened the year in
Triple-A. He went 4-4, 4.71 in 10 starts with a 38/15 K/BB ratio in 50
innings. In need of pitching, the Rays promoted him to the majors in June and
he spent the rest of the season in the rotation, going 6-8, 4.77 with a 64/53
K/BB ratio in 121 innings. At times he was very effective, but his curveball
was still mediocre, his changeup was not as good as it used to be, and his
fastball, while fast, was often too straight. He was even worse in 2005 (7.61
ERA in 71 innings, mostly in relief), and in '06 the Rays gave up on him
completely and shipped him to San Diego for Sean Burroughs.
He has spent '06 and '07 mostly at the minor league level, and at age 27 he
seems fully established as a journeyman pitcher. He still has a good arm, but
the secondary pitches just haven't developed. He's developed a reputation as
a hard worker, but also as a pitcher who battles himself and lacks confidence.
What the hell happened here?
The easy theory is that Brazelton was never as good as he looked in college,
that the gaudy stats at Middle Tennessee State misled everyone. But the fact
is that he also pitched great for Team USA (pitching better than Mark Prior
did actually). I don't think his success there was an illusion, and his
fastball and changeup were really outstanding back then. Something else
happened here.
Scouts knew from the beginning that he had problems with his breaking ball,
and sabermetrically this was apparent in the weakish strikeout rate in the
minors. But why wasn't he able to develop a better one? I think there is no
question at all that he was promoted to the majors too quickly in 2003. He
wasn't ready, and it showed, and every part of his game went backwards after
that. He's the kind of pitcher who would definitely have benefited from a
bullpen apprenticeship, rather than being thrown into the rotation for a bad
team. Maybe with better handling he would have adjusted, and maybe he
wouldn't have. Maybe he should have ditched the traditional breaking ball and
tried something different like a forkball or splitter, especially when being
used out of the bullpen.
Dewon Brazelton is still relatively young, and he still has a major league
arm. With the right coach in the right situation, he could still make a
contribution at the major league level.
--
If you're not have fun in baseball,
you miss the point of everything.
--
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