[girlsloveme (某方面特大)]

來源:http://0rz.tw/493TR

Tuesday, April 08, 2008
Looking Forward to 2008: Tampa Bay Rays
Why the Rays are Better than The Yankees...right now
(in certain important facets of the game)

光芒隊08年之展望
為何光芒壓倒洋基...我說的是目前
(單就某些重點方面之探討)

Those of us who recall the dying days of the Soviet Union - perestroika, the
shockingly successful Lithuanian independence movement, the ecstatic rupture of
the Berlin Wall - know the surprising satisfaction of an Evil Empire’s fall.
(Those too young to remember the Soviet chill and the pointless atomic bomb
drills in junior high school can consider the sudden downfall of Emperor
Palpatine and his Galactic Empire.) Certainly, in the immediately previous
years few predict its demise. Reagan’s Berlin plea to “tear down this wall”
was widely panned by liberal publications,especially in skittish Europe, and
the destruction of the rebel base on the ice planet Hoth looked like a death
knell for rebel resistance against the Galactic Empire. Baseball's New York
empire poached Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, and
other superstars from rivals, which, a the time, seemed ominous signs of the
Yankees’limitless funds and continued dominance.

每當我們回想起蘇維埃政權的舊日時光之際-新思潮誕生，立陶宛成功的獨立運動，瘋狂推
倒柏林圍牆-也了解到邪惡帝國的駭人復仇計畫已然傾頹。(年紀還小的可能腦海中並不存
在俄共帶來的悲慟以及使用原子彈對中等學校無情轟炸，但仍可以理解邪惡領袖及其銀河
帝國為何瞬間瓦解)，當然，一開始沒有人想的到。而雷根在柏林發表推倒圍牆之演說被當
時自由媒體嚴詞撻伐，在怕事的歐洲大陸上情況更是嚴重，因為如果那酷寒的Hoth星球上
的敵軍基地一旦摧毀，好比是以那銀河帝國為目標的敵軍開始敲響象徵反攻的喪鐘。棒星
球上之紐約帝國所向披靡，大吉、大門、老克、RJ、還有來自其他地區技驚四座威震八方
的勇士們齊聚一堂，地方群雄試圖各據一方，但空氣中似乎彌漫一股殺戮的不祥之氣，群
雄併起長征萬里，面對黃金及食糧捉襟見肘的窘境，誰能捷足先登逐鹿中原一統天下?

Today, the Yankees are wounded (Pettitte, Matsui) and staggering (Mussina,
Giambi) and have the misfortune of playing in what is still baseball’s most
difficult division. To be sure, the Yankees' talent prompts some to claim that
New York's offense is on par with baseball’s best – a reach that ignores the
injuries and declines that will surely beset their older players. This aging
core combines with the addition of an vengeful, personality-challenged manager,
the arrival of a bombastic and arrogant owner, a dangerous reliance on three
rookies to stabilize the pitching staff, and the ongoing tragedy of New York’s
irrational dislike of the best player in baseball, a collective rejection that
has this great talent often playing tight as Scrooge McDuck. Because of all
this, the Yankees have the potential to provide awesome entertainment in the
legacy of the America’s Most Horrific Car Crashes-style cable series.

洋基現在傷兵多，球員表現也不穩定，而且又地處最難打的美聯東區。但是洋基的進攻火
力的確是聯盟屬一屬二的，年輕球員頻頻出頭也已足以銜接資深球員因傷所困的窘境。以
經驗豐富的球員為球隊核心，充滿抱負的教練、好大喜功的老闆、相當被看好的三位年輕
小投手、以及持續上演對於陷入低潮的明星球員抱以噓聲的傳統總使球員喘不過氣。但也
因為如此，洋基在歷史上總是能夠在社會發生重大災難之餘撫慰人心。

The Red Sox, on the other hand, have established themselves as baseball’s
elite without peer, both for current and future success. The Blue Jays have
been snake bit in ways that always hamstring teams with limited depth. They
seemed stronger this season, but continue their unlucky run with Scott Rolen
out for a month. Both teams, and especially the Sox, are likely to frustrate
the Yankees all season. This year's odd team out, the Orioles, are carrion.

相對的，紅襪則一路走來崇尚低調奢華試圖與洋基分庭抗禮。而藍鳥總是扮演程咬金的腳
色，可惜的是板凳可用之兵不足，今年陣容看起來有較為茁壯，但Rolen將因傷缺席一個月
。這兩隊中，特別是紅襪非常可能能夠威脅到洋基。而金鶯本季機會相當渺茫。

And then we have the Devil Rays, whose raft of early-round draft picks over its
first decade of play, plus their recent delightful run of successful signings
and trades, have finally (finally!) turned the team into an intriguing,
youthful mixture of power-speed athleticism. Whereas in the past, the team
would have been satisfied to find a hard-throwing high-school teacher or two
(or, worse, Shawn Camp and Ruddy Lugo) to fill off-season needs, this year’s
team has fully transformed both its traumatizing bullpen and its horrific
defense. Preseason computer simulations predict the Rays have improved their
pitching/defense combination by a remarkable 200 runs – a 33-win improvement
based on a 6-run/win formula. (Simplistic calculation, yes, but the broader
point remains.)

光芒隊創隊以來的選秀順序都相當不錯，再加上近來許多優秀的球員加盟，終於成功轉型
成力量與速度兼備的一支如此吸引人的年輕球隊。過去傾向於尋找一兩個強力年輕投手來
彌補戰力的不足，但本季同時加強牛棚戰力跟守備。今年球季開始前經過程式簡單的模擬
之後，發現光芒隊今年評比比去年進步*200分(*不是打多200分><不知代表什麼)、比去年
多33勝(大驚!那不就有99勝?!)，雖然是用簡單的程式算的，但如果使用更多指標來算，依
然可得到相同的結果。

To accomplish this, the team practically turned over its entire starting roster
. At shortstop, the Rays brought in a defensive wizard, Jason Bartlett, who
replaces the overmatched Brendan Harris, creating a swing of more than 30
defensive runs alone. Akinori Iwamura moves to 2B and replaces, primarily, the
defensively challenged B.J. Upton, whose speed, athletic ability and powerful
arm now makes him an exciting, but unproven, option for CF. Iwamura won six
Japanese Gold Gloves and was adequate at 3B for the Rays, though he did make
some outstanding defensive plays. He moves in preparation for Evan Longoria who
, for all the hullabaloo over his being assigned to AAA for a few weeks, will
soon be established at 3B for Tampa Bay for many years. Newcomer Cliff Floyd
was a defensive asset for the Cubs last season, whereas the departed Delmon
Young was a strong liability. Meanwhile, incumbent Carl Crawford is one of the
league’s elite outfield defenders. With the exception of the weak-hitting
Bartlett, the Rays' defensive transformation maintained their offensive
potential.

為了能有好成績，必須好好整頓一下先發球員才行。游擊區補進了一位防守魔法師--Jason
Bretlett，用來取代先前的Harris，一個人就足以使防守評比一舉進步30分。岩村明憲進
佔到二壘後，使得強肩俊足的Upton需移防到中外野，至於成效如何，一切只待時間證明。
岩村在日本獲得過六次金手套，並且在魔鬼魚三壘防區也表現的不錯。一切都是為了讓今
年又被下放回小聯盟而喧囂一時Longoria上來做準備，因為他已經被光芒隊設定為未來幾
年的主力三壘手。新來的Cliff Floyd是去年小熊隊的守備組，取代已經轉隊的Delmon
Young在這位置的不足。而CC則是整個聯盟防守最優秀的外野手之一。而除了Bratlett嬴弱
的攻擊火力，整個光芒隊除了防守能力脫胎換骨，打擊爆發力更是不容小覷。

Meanwhile, the pitching staff also improved dramatically. In addition to
Bartlett the Delmon Young trade brought in Matt Garza, whose minor league
numbers were nearly identical to the Yankees’ overhyped Phil Hughes. Garza
allowed a fifth of a hit per inning more than Hughes over his minor league
career, and their K/9 and BB/9 rates were mirror images. Garza backs up Scott
Kazmir, the reigning AL strikeout leader who has so far defied scouts'
predictions that he will break down, and James Shields, another budding ace.
Shields’ breakout 2007 season was one of the Rays’ biggest surprises, marred
only by the Rays’ desperate bullpen problems. In Shields’ 30 starts, the
bullpen allowed 6 of Shields’inherited runners to score (a low number only
because Shields was almost always replaced to start an inning), but it allowed
57 of its own runners to score, a pattern that routinely turned 4-2 leads into
6-4 losses.

同時，投手群也非常有看頭。今年隨著Bartlett之後交易過來的Matt Garza，在小聯盟的
成績可與地位崇高的洋基大帝互別苗頭。Garza在小聯盟平均每局只比大帝多被打0.2支安
打，K/9&BB/9更是一時瑜亮。Garza將成為Kazmir的後盾，Kazmir這位美聯三振王會用盡全
力證明球探預測他的成績下滑是看走了眼，還有Shields也是位正在崛起的王牌。他在2007
年的爆發是魔鬼魚去年球季的最大驚奇之一，可惜玻璃牛棚常常無法幫他守住最後勝利。
在他的三十次先發當中，牛棚讓他在壘上留下的跑者的其中六位回本壘得分，(因為總是收
拾完一個半局之後才下去休息所以看起來很少)，但牛棚整年讓57位跑者回來得分，所以就
算取得4:2的領先，牛棚上來放火最後反而變成4:6輸球的情況也早已司空見慣。

Shields’ Apr. 22 start against Cleveland was especially galling. Shields had
raised eyebrows with his early-season effectiveness but on this day he was
masterful. By the end of the eighth, he had given up two hits, one a Jhonny
Peralta homerun, against 12 strikeouts. He left with a 4-2 lead. Ninth inning
arrives. Shields is replaced by Brian “Flash Fire” Stokes. HBP. Out. Walk.
Single. 3-Run Home Run. Indians win.

Shields在去年4/22先發對上印地安人的比賽有如在洗三溫暖。比賽前半段對自己在剛開季
相當省球的效率感到心花朵朵開。八局結束只被打了兩支安打，包括一支Peralta的全壘打
，一共投出12次三振。留下4:2的領先下場休息。第九局換上火球Stokes接替投球，觸身球
之後解決下一名打者，然後又投出保送，接著被打出一支一壘安打，最後被打一支再見三
分全壘打慘遭逆轉。

This happened constantly, and the constant bullpen meltdowns (you would have to
go back to the‘50s to find a worse collective bullpen performance) quickly
drained the energy from the season. This obscured not only Shields’emergence
but also the arrival of the Rays’ young hitters. Crawford, whose OBP reached
.350 for the first time, emerged into an elite leadoff hitter. B.J. Upton’s
development was faster than Crawford's, with Upton posting a 134 OPS (including
a .386 OBP) as a 22-year-old, 17 points higher than Crawford’s career high.
But the man with the magic bat last season, and one of the few Devil Rays to
swing out of obscurity with such speed, was Carlos Pena. Pena's minor league
numbers showed patience and a talent for extra base hits.

這種鳥事持續發生，牛棚一再崩盤，(只有五零年代才看的到比這更精采的放火秀)，如此
龐大的使用量迅速導致牛棚精疲力竭。這不但導致Shields無法獲得原本應該有的好成績，
更讓年輕打者不想留在魔鬼魚陣中。CC的上壘率只有三成五就已經是陣中最佳第一棒候選
人了。Upton竄升的更快，在22歲時OPS+就高達134，比CC生涯最高還多出17分。但去年有
著神奇表現並盡全力衝刺一掃陰霾的就屬Pena了。他在小聯盟的成績已經顯示出他的耐力
以及長打能力了。

In 2002, Billy Beane snatched him from Texas, then quickly flipped him with
Jeremy Bonderman to Detroit in a three-way trade that foisted Jared Weaver on
the Yankees. (Oakland got Ted Lilly.) For three-plus seasons in Detroit, Pena
disappointed with low batting averages and unremarkable power. After bouncing
around the AL East in 2006, the phenom-turned-journeyman failed to make the
Devil Rays out of spring training last year,only to be called up before Opening
Day due to injury. By May, Pena was hitting .213, then U-turned to rewrite the
Rays’record book with an out-of-nowhere career year that earned him MVP votes
and the AL Comeback Player of the Year Award.The 2008 season will show whether
Pena is more Luis Gonzales or Brady Anderson, but he'll always be the man who
took Aubrey Huff's team home run record away.

2002年豆爺把他從遊騎兵弄來，然後再把他跟Bonderman在一樁三方交易案中賣到老虎隊。
運動家獲得了Ted Lilly。Pena在老虎隊三年多的打擊率都相當低迷，防守更是乏善可陳。
在2006年的美聯東區表現不俗，但這位浪子程咬金去年並沒有在春訓幫魔鬼魚打出好成績
，因傷所困的他到了在開幕日之前才加入球隊。五月之前他的打擊率只有二成一三，之後
開始持續攀升，最後改寫了隊史紀錄，堪稱是他目前為止的生涯年，讓他獲得了美聯MVP票
選當中名列前矛，更獲頒美聯東山再起獎。今年將是他證明自己的一年，但是不管如何，
他已經打敗Huff，創下隊史單季全壘打紀錄。

The increased competitiveness of the Rays' Major League team is backed by a
pipeline of outstanding talent on the way – especially a number of pitchers
who are superior to the Yankees’ touted prospects, including the overhyped
Joba Chamberlain, who is so good that he can’t be trusted to start a game at
the moment. An honest comparison of righties Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, and
Ian Kennedy to the Rays top three pitching prospects – David Price, Wade Davis
, and Jake McGee – must include the fact that Price and Davis are unhittable
power lefties, and also ignores that Jeff Niemann is closer to the Show. Three
years from now could find the dominant Rays pitching staff the best in baseball
. Today, however, the Rays' pitchers are already better than New York's. Using
Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projections,considered the most accurate available,
the outstanding Replacement Level Yankees Weblog shows the Rays allowing six
runs fewer than the Yankees this season. Likewise, David Pinto used PECOTA to
show that the Rays' starters, overall, project to have a lower ERA than the
Yankees starters.

實力與日俱增的光芒隊是一支有許多優秀球員做後盾的相當有組織的勁旅，特別是具有連
洋基的球探報告中都垂涎的潛力投手群，張伯倫也是名單中的一位，不敢相信怎麼還快不
排他先發呢。老實說如果把張伯倫、大帝、甘迺迪三人跟光芒隊的David Price、Wade
Davis、Jake McGee相比，但首先請先不要管Price&Davis都是左投手，接著再忘掉還有一
位Jeff Niemann也相當厲害。三年之後將會是光芒隊投手的天下，但是，現在光芒隊投手
早就比洋基厲害了。按照PECOTA還有Replacement Level Yankees Weblog的說法，本季光
芒隊比洋基少失六分。而David Pinto這位仁兄也從PECOTA推斷光芒先發輪值將比洋基輪值
具有更優異的自責分率。

Although the 24-year-old Kazmir might be the most experienced of Rays' 5-man
rotation (which will include, in addition to Shields and Garza, young Andy
Sonnanstine and either Jason Hammel or the former Future Star Edwin Jackson),
all five of the projected starters are expected to have more experience in the
majors than the key trio of rookie Yankees mentioned above. In the bullpen, the
Yankees have the peerless Mariano Rivera, but the Rays bullpen also has more
this-year potential than the rest of the Yankees', with the Rays' no-name guys
like Juan Salas and Trever Miller as good as or better than the Yankees'no-name
guys like Jeff Karstens and Matt DeSalvo.This assumes, of course，that key
bullpen players like 38-year-old Troy Percival and Al Reyes can hold up.A major
bullpen injury for the Rays brings the whole house down.

雖然說Kazmir這位24歲也許是隊中目前最有經驗的先發投手，(其他四人是Shields、Garza
、Sonnanstine以及Hammel跟前未來之星隊的Jackson)，每位投手都比洋基的菜鳥先發具有
更豐富的大聯盟經驗。而洋基牛棚當中有著不可侵犯的MO，光芒則是Juan Salas、Trever
Miller等等的許多無名英雄，戰力並不下於洋基的Jeff Karstens、Matt DeSalvo。當然，
這個假設必須要在中繼主力Reyes以及38歲的Percival不砸鍋才成立。病痛是光芒牛棚的最
大問題。

Although the Rays’ pitching already outstrips the Yankees, the hitting still
lags when compared head-to-head, though not as much as many think. At catcher,
New York has a possible Hall-of-Famer in Jorge Posada. Rays catcher Dioner
Navarro had his first at bat in majors at age 20, an extraordinarily young age
for the position. Now 24, he has the youth and talent to improve substantially
on his 70 OPS+ from 2007. Even so, he’s a dice roll. Posada is far better
today but the gap could close somewhat in 2008.

雖然投手戰力高於洋基，但比打擊的話就說有得瞧了。捕手:有機會進入名人堂的捕手
Posada對上20歲就在大聯盟初登板及首打席的Navarro，對捕手來說20歲要上大聯盟是談何
容易。現年24歲，年輕跟潛力非常有可能將他去年只有70的OPS+再往上提升。即使如此，
也只是猜測而已。Posada去年大爆發，今年應該會稍微恢復正常。

At first base, a Pena encore of last season would vastly outperform the
plummeting Jason Giambi and his platoon partner Wilson Betemit, a utilityman
who hits like one.The Yankees have a huge advantage at shortstop and third base
, both of which are manned by Hall of Famers still in their primes, Bartlett's
defense and Longoria's promise notwithstanding. At second base, the Yankees'
Robinson Cano has become a legitimately dangerous hitter, but the jury is still
out on Iwamura. Iwamura battled freak injuries last season that limited him to
fewer than 500 at bats. In a full season's play, the outstanding Iwamura should
meet Cano's contributions, especially when defense is taken into account.

一壘的部份，Pena若再次打出去年的成績將大勝大吉，工具人Benemit也很容易對付。洋基
的游擊與三壘將取得壓倒性的勝利，兩位的成績都是常年維持高檔的準名人堂的球員，儘
管我們也有Bretlett的防守與Longoria的火力。二壘的部份，Cano已經是一位公認的可怕
打者，但專家還是認為岩村能夠勝出。岩村去年與怪病纏身，使得他一年只累積不到五百
個打數。如果以一個完整的球季來看，岩村的棒子不只能與Cano相抗衡，防守更是略勝一
籌。

In the outfield,Crawford is better than any Yankee outfielder, showing far more
speed and defensive ability than Johnny Damon, more power and contact hitting
ability than the present-day Bobby Abreu,and more all-around ability than Melky
Cabrera. Only the declining and injury-prone Hideki Matsui has had marginally
superior hitting numbers to Crawford's 2008, but Crawford blows past Matsui
on the basepaths and sparks the team.In terms of pure hitting, Upton was better
as a rookie than Crawford or any Yankee outfielder, and he will only get better
. In the other outfield position, Cliff Floyd/Jonny Gomes/Eric Hinske all have
the ability to put up nice numbers.

接著來到外野，CC高居兩隊的外野手之冠，他飛快的速度及防守能力狂勝大門，打擊power
與對擊球點的掌握能力都比現在的Abreu更好，各項指標也都比牛奶優秀。今年只有正在下
滑又容易受傷的大松井在某些打擊項目勝過CC，但CC在跑壘及幫助球隊士氣的提升則取得
壓倒性的勝利。純粹只比打擊的話，菜鳥時期的Upton就已經勝過CC跟兩隊其他所有外野手
，以後還會越來越好。而左右外野的部份Cliff Floyd、Jonny Gomes、Eric Hinske也都有
還不錯的打擊能力。

Although the superiority of the Yankees at short, third, and catcher is
profound, the Rays have pulled even or ahead of New York at all other offensive
positions and in the pitching staff as a whole. The gap between the two teams
is not large. The Replacement Level Yankees Weblog's PECOTA-based project gave
the Rays a 27% likelihood of a playoff spot, defining the term "puncher's
chance." Everyone who has paid attention to the Rays' rise knows the outrageous
flood of young talent still to come over the next few years, but with the
recent five-year run of out-of-nowhere teams competing for the World Series, no
one should discount the Rays' chances this season.

雖然洋基的游擊跟三壘還有捕手實在是難以超越，但光芒其他位置的進攻表現還有投手素
質等等的整體戰力並不會讓洋基專美於前。兩隊的實力差距並不大。PECOTA認為今年光芒
進季後賽的機會高達百分之27，只要能夠堅持到最後。注意到光芒隊正在崛起的球迷都知
道潛力新秀們在未來幾年內即將大軍壓境，何況最近五年內總是會有不知從哪裡冒出來的
球隊打進世界大賽，誰敢斷言今年光芒隊又將提早放暑假?

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) 
◆ From: 125.230.226.235
推 Hittite:patience翻成耐力有點奇怪
→ girlsloveme:就選球很有耐力啊...XD這麼長的文章連編輯都要找很久.
→ girlsloveme:..饒了我吧XD
推 Agency:耐性XDDD
推 majohn:辛苦啦XDD
→ girlsloveme:感謝樓上支持O_Q