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http://www.baseball-intellect.com/boston-red-sox-top-prospects-part-1/
Boston Red Sox Top-15 Prospects of 2009, No’s 1 - 5
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Lars Anderson | 1b | B - L | 2A Portland | Age - 21 | Drafted - Round 18, 2006
Contact - 40 Now | 50/55 Future
Power - 45 | 55
Discipline - 50 | 60
Speed - 35 | 35
Defense - 55 | 55
Arm - 55 | 55
Instincts - 55 | 60
Final Grade - B+
Body Type - big and strong…more athletic than most first baseman
Scouting Report
Anderson’s power isn’t elite yet, but it has the potential to get there. He’
s always showed the ability to make hard contact and many scouts note the ball
makes a different sound off his bat. He’s also adept at using the entire
field and many are waiting–and anticipating–his pull power will be soon to
come.
One issue facing Anderson is the tendency of his batted balls off to have a low
trajectory coming off the bat. A player Anderson if often compared to is Mark
Teixera and I want to contrast the two.
One reason Teixeira rates as an elite power hitter is because of his ability to
put the ball in the air. I can’t stress how important it is for a power hitter
to hit the ball in the air. Let’s take last season for example.
Teixeira: .244 ISO-power, FB% of 41, HR/FB% of 18.5, meaning 18.5% of his fly
balls became homeruns.
Anderson (over his professional career–in which about a third of his at bats
came in the tiny park of Lancaster): .179 ISO-power (park-adjusted it’s .169),
FB% of just 28.2, and a HR/FB% of 15.3.
The difference between the two is largely centered on the difference in FB%.
Now, to compare each player’s swing (Anderson is on the left):
http://0rz.tw/cf5h7 Mark Teixeira
http://0rz.tw/365lY Lars Anderson
Keep in mind the Teixeira video is of a higher quality…Anderson is not
actually starting his swing significantly later than Teixeira.
You’ll notice the tremendous torque in Teixera’s swing–the bend in the back
leg, the slant of his shoulders, and the ability to keep his weight back as
long as possible. The slanting of his shoulders is important because the
trajectory of the bat head is moving upwards at contact. It’s not too
upper-cutty of a swing, but it applies lift to the ball when contact is made.
With Anderson, when the bat head comes through the zone, he is often making
contact as the bat is coming through on a more linear or even downward
trajectory. This often happens when the players gets a little too far out in
front. He needs to work on staying back, waiting on the ball and then
unloading. The contact he makes is still hard, but the ball is simply lower to
the ground when it comes off the bat.
The natural talent is there for Anderson, but he’ll need to make a few
adjustments to take his game to the next level.
Other Notes - Anderson’s mental make-up, smarts, and work ethic are widely
praised and he gives the Red Sox more value than the average first baseman
because of his plus glove at first base. He also possesses an advanced level
of plate discipline.
Best Case Outcome - Borderline all-star at first base
More Likely Outcome - Above average first baseman
================================================================================
Michael Bowden | RHP | 3A Pawtucket | Age - 22 | Drafted - Round 1a (47), 2005
Fastball - 50 Now | 50 Future
Curveball - 55 | 55
Change-Up - 50 | 55
Control - 50 | 55
Command - 50 | 50
Pitchability - 55 | 60
Final Grade - B
Body Type - muscular build with a strong lower body
Stuff
Fastball - sits between 89 and 93, tough to center the ball against and
commands the pitch well
Curveball - a 12-to-6 version, but not really the slow, loopy kind…will
subtract speed to give the pitch a bigger (but slower) break at times…given
his over hand release point, the pitch comes in on a similar plane as the
fastball and he commands the pitch well. Below is an example of his curveball.
The pitch was one of the better one’s he threw in this particular start:
http://0rz.tw/895lN
Change-Up - circle change helps Bowden get lefties out at the same rate as
righties…shows good feel for the pitch and it’s improved dramatically since
being drafted
Scouting Report
Bowden doesn’t have elite stuff, but his plus make-up and above average to
plus command help Bowden’s stuff play up. He commands his pitches to both
sides of the plate and he doesn’t show any fear coming inside to lefties.
When he tires, Bowden will start leaving pitches up in the zone.
Mechanically, Bowden is a bit awkward, but he repeats his delivery and doesn’t
have a history of injury. He’s also a good athlete, which helps in injury
prevention.
Bowden is a fly ball pitcher and has a propensity to throw a lot of infield
flies, which are almost as good as a strikeout. Higher home run rates will
accompany Bowden at higher levels, but he’ll also give up less hits than his
peers.
Best Case Outcome - No. 3 starter
More Likely Outcome - Borderline No. 3/Strong No. 4
================================================================================
Daniel Bard | RHP | Double-A Portland | Age - 23 | Drafted - Round 1 (28), 2006
Fastball - 60 Now | 65 Future
Slider - 60 | 60
Curveball - 40 | 45
Change-Up - 35 | 40
Control - 45 | 50
Command - 50 | 55
Pitchability - 50 | 55
Final Grade - B
Body Type - tall and athletic
Stuff
Fastball - mid-upper 90’s, tremendous life…plenty of movement
Slider - late, two plane break with plenty of bite…somewhat slurvy at times…
complements his fastball well…shows the ability to back door the pitch against
lefties
Bard also has a curveball and a change-up, with the curveball being more a
show-me pitch. He doesn’t use either pitch all that much out of the bullpen.
Essentially, all his pitches have a ton of natural movement and they all come
in on similar plane. Combine that with solid command–usually–and you see why
his numbers are so dominant.
Of course, things weren’t always this way for Bard. His 2007 season was
disastrous, walking over 20% of the batters he faced and striking out just over
11%. His ERA was 6.39 in Single-A Greenville and 10.13 in A+ Lancaster. As
typically happens, Bard’s issues were first mechanically based. However, his
struggles started to effect him mentally to the point he lost his confidence.
Everything went downhill from there. It wasn’t till he reported to Hawaii
for Winter Ball that he went to the video room, saw himself on tape, and began
to make the changes necessary to get him back to the pitcher he once was.
Bard lowered his arm slot, which added to the movement of his pitches. Bard
also was able to keep his head straight and in line with home plate. When he
used an over-the-top arm slot, his head would tilt because the arm needs room
to come through (see what Bowden does above). This made it much more difficult
for Bard to throw strikes.
Staying on Bard’s mechanics, below is an excellent shot of a pitcher loading
the scapula:
http://0rz.tw/a35gv
Notice as the arm reaches that “L” position, Bard is pinching the shoulder
blades together. He’s loading the arm stretching all these elastic muscles
and tendons in the shoulder region. As the torso is uncoiled forward, the
power is transferred from the torso to the shoulder and the result is a very
loose, whip-like arm action. Does scapula loading increase stress on the
shoulder? It might…but from a velocity stand point, it’s crucial.
By the Numbers
Bard’s lone drawback last year was his control, specifically towards the end
of the season. In Portland, he walked 12.3% of the batters he faced, but his
dominance in other areas–particularly in missing bats (43.8% in Greeneville,
31.5 K% in Portland), generating ground balls (67 GB%, 60%), limiting hard
contact (.240 BABIP, .255)–more than made up for those problems in control.
Best Case Outcome - elite reliever…he’ll best be used as a multi-inning
reliever, pitching anywhere from 80 - 100 innings a year.
More Likely Outcome - good reliever..his iffy control could prevent him from
become that elite-level reliever.
==============================================================================
Josh Reddick | B - L | RF/CF | 2A Portland | Age - 22 | Drafted - Round 17, 2006
Contact - 45 Now | 55 Future
Power - 45 | 55
Discipline - 40 | 45
Speed - 50/55 | 50/55
Defense - 55| 55
Arm - 60 | 60
Instincts - 45 | 55
Final Grade - B
Body Type - skinny and lanky, but athletic…there is some room to fill out, but
he has trouble putting on weight
Scouting Report
Very good bat speed…strong and quick wrists…has a wiry-type strength in that
he’s not a big guy, but he’s blessed with these fast-twitch muscle fibers
that allow him to hit the ball a long way despite his size.
Reddick is a see-the-ball, hit-the-ball sort of player. He’s going to find a
pitch he can handle and swing. He’s not going to really work the count.
Lucky for him, Reddick possess terrific hand-eye coordination that allows him
to make consistent contact. There are times he can get overaggressive and you
can get him out by giving him a steady diet of breaking balls and by changing
his eye level.
Reddick’s swing is more of a sweeping variety. He starts very tall. As he
steps into foot plant, the bat sweeps across the strike zone. The path his bat
takes is long, but he lets the ball travel deep into his hitting zone. When
faced with a pitch down and in, Reddick’s front leg locks and he rolls over
his front foot, which allows him to still drive balls down-and-in.
The Red Sox are working with him to become a more patient player, but he’s not
taking to it well. As he notes in this interview, he’s struggled with the
adjustments of becoming a more patient player and his average dropped in the
process.
Other Notes - Reddick has above average speed, a strong arm, and plays both
center and right field. He’ll have more value if he can play center field
full time, but he might end up being a player that moves back-and-forth from
each position.
Best Case Outcome - Top-7 center fielder or a top-12 right fielder
More Likely Outcome - Slightly above average center fielder or a slightly below
average right fielder…worst case outcome is a fourth outfielder
===============================================================================
Junichi Tazawa | RHP | N/A | Age - 22 | Signed - Japan, 2008
Fastball - 50 Now | 50/55 Future
Curveball - 50 | 50
Forkball - 50 | 55
Control - 45 | 55
Command - 45 | 50
Pitchability - 45 | 50
Final Grade - B-
Body Type - small frame, athletic
Stuff
Fastball - 91 - 93, touching 94…some pop at the end, commands it pretty well…
keeps it down in the zone and on the corners…not a tremendous amount of
movement
Curveball - throws the pitch often, has two versions…one is slower and loopier
with a bigger break. It’s clocked in the mid-70’s, while the harder curve is
thrown in the upper 70’s or low 80’s. I like the higher velocity, harder
breaking version better.
Forkball - could also be called a change-up…tumbles toward home plate in the
low 80’s. Below is Tazawa’s fastball (left) and forkball (right). The
fastball is coming in at 91, while the forkball is clocked at 82.
http://0rz.tw/0c5oV forkball
http://0rz.tw/f55iJ fastball
Mechanics
His wind-up is kinda segmented. Leg kicks out, glove is pointed toward home,
leg swings around, glove is pulled in, pitching arm makes its way through its
arm path. He generates pretty good velocity, but might cost himself a mph or
two by halting his momentum at various points in his delivery. One thing worth
pointing out is his ability to consistently repeat his delivery.
Best Case Outcome- No. 3 starter
More Likely Outcome- No. 4 starter or quality reliever out of the bullpen
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