作者majohn ()
看板RedSox
標題2008 ZiPS Projections - Boston Red Sox
時間Mon Jan 28 14:59:51 2008
弄paper真的弄到有點苦悶...
找了些資料來看看
原文出處：
http://kuso.cc/3bBn
2008 ZiPS Projections - Boston Red Sox
This might not come as a great shock considering the Red Sox just won the
World Series for the 2nd time this decade, but ZiPS sees the Red Sox as the
best team in the AL. Well, technically, I haven't done the Orioles yet, but
I'm taking a wild guess that the Orioles aren't going to look better than the
Sox on e-paper.
No real suprises here. It's a deep team. While they obviously don't have
spare better-than-average 1B, DH or LF/RF backups stashed away, nobody really
does, and the team is very deep everywhere else. The amount of minor leaguers
that project to be non-terrible at up-the-middle positions is downright
staggering and I'm not even counting guys like Lars Anderson who should pop
up in the 2009 projections.
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR
RBI BB K SB CS
David Ortiz* dh 32 .297 .400 .593 153 573 111 170 38 0 44
138 97 121 1 0
Manny Ramirez lf 36 .278 .381 .493 123 442 75 123 26 0 23
98 71 98 0 1
AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ---- .290 .367 .489
------------------------------------------
Kevin Youkilis 1b 29 .286 .388 .444 134 475 79 136 35 2 12
69 71 100 3 2
AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .289 .358 .469
------------------------------------------
AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ---- .288 .355 .471
------------------------------------------
AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ---- .285 .352 .462
------------------------------------------
Dustin Pedroia 2b 24 .292 .359 .431 150 548 75 160 44 1 10
62 51 43 3 1
Jacoby Ellsbury* cf 24 .297 .349 .392 134 549 87 163 34 3 4
58 37 72 43 6
AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ---- .283 .345 .436
------------------------------------------
J.D. Drew* rf 32 .259 .362 .412 104 352 59 91 22 1 10
60 56 77 1 2
AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ---- .287 .346 .427
------------------------------------------
Chris Carter* 1b 25 .278 .339 .438 143 553 56 154 33 2 17
78 50 71 4 2
Jason Varitek# c 36 .249 .350 .408 112 385 50 96 20 1 13
63 56 102 2 1
Eric Hinske* rf 30 .248 .335 .437 104 286 44 71 20 2 10
41 35 82 3 1
Mike Lowell 3b 34 .272 .333 .429 150 552 70 150 40 1 15
64 50 63 1 0
AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ---- .285 .339 .418
------------------------------------------
Brandon Moss* rf 24 .264 .334 .424 152 550 58 145 51 2 11
72 56 147 4 4
Coco Crisp# cf 28 .271 .333 .410 138 527 82 143 33 5 10
65 48 79 22 5
Jon Van Every* cf 28 .253 .322 .448 118 384 37 97 27 3 14
53 36 147 6 6
Jeff Bailey 1b 29 .247 .334 .399 103 348 37 86 22 2 9
50 38 85 3 3
Jed Lowrie# ss 24 .253 .326 .406 136 522 54 132 47 6 7
58 55 96 3 3
Julio Lugo ss 32 .267 .335 .382 142 539 77 144 35 3 7
62 52 96 29 8
AVERAGE C --------------- c ---- .270 .329 .414
------------------------------------------
Tony Granadillo# 2b 23 .259 .322 .389 132 506 72 131 38 2 8
54 37 84 2 1
Keith Ginter 3b 32 .235 .326 .381 90 315 32 74 20 1 8
48 36 59 2 0
Josh Reddick* rf 21 .266 .305 .433 112 448 43 119 20 2 17
60 24 68 6 7
George Kottaras* c 25 .243 .316 .389 112 375 35 91 34 0 7
43 39 101 1 1
Bobby Kielty# lf 31 .255 .325 .362 75 235 30 60 13 0 4
34 24 56 0 0
Bobby Scales# 2b 30 .248 .318 .381 126 423 45 105 26 3 8
49 40 107 9 3
Doug Mirabelli c 37 .246 .318 .355 88 276 35 68 15 0 5
36 29 65 1 0
John Barnes sp 32 .270 .310 .382 89 296 32 80 18 0 5
32 16 26 3 3
Junior Spivey 2b 33 .231 .327 .354 58 195 24 45 12 0 4
22 25 52 6 3
Joey Thurston* 2b 28 .264 .316 .377 124 435 51 115 28 3 5
48 27 57 10 10
Gil Velazquez ss 28 .256 .306 .334 101 293 39 75 16 2 1
27 19 57 3 1
Dusty Brown c 25 .235 .282 .371 96 345 33 81 24 1 7
39 21 87 1 0
Alex Cora* 2b 32 .241 .311 .330 80 203 27 49 8 2 2
21 13 23 4 2
Chad Spann 3b 24 .235 .289 .364 123 439 37 103 28 1 9
45 30 128 1 4
Andrew Pinckney# 3b 26 .230 .277 .375 122 456 46 105 32 2 10
52 26 111 3 5
Joe McEwing 2b 35 .245 .289 .338 89 302 28 74 17 1 3
31 15 59 5 4
John Otness c 26 .244 .281 .326 95 344 29 84 20 1 2
29 13 42 1 1
Royce Clayton ss 38 .236 .286 .311 94 305 32 72 20 0 1
28 20 70 5 2
Kevin Cash c 30 .188 .266 .307 73 218 19 41 11 0 5
22 21 69 0 1
Argenis Diaz ss 21 .225 .275 .299 113 479 50 108 28 2 1
34 29 121 5 8
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Ortiz* Pr
Ramirez Pr
Youkilis Av Av
Pedroia Av Fr
Drew* Av Fr Av
Ellsbury* Vg Av Vg
Carter* Fr
Varitek# Fr
Hinske* Av Pr Pr Pr
Lowell Vg
Moss* Av Pr Av
Crisp# Vg Vg
Van Every* Av Fr Av
Bailey Av Av
Lowrie# Av Av Av
Lugo Av Av Av
Granadillo# Av Fr Fr
Ginter Av Fr Av
Reddick* Fr Av
Kottaras* Av
Kielty# Fr Pr Vg
Scales# Fr Fr Pr Fr Fr
Mirabelli Pr
Barnes Av Fr
Spivey Fr Fr Pr
Thurston* Av Vg Fr
Velazquez Vg Fr Vg Fr Av
Brown Av
Cora* Vg Av
Spann Av Av
Pinckney# Av
McEwing Fr Fr Pr Av
Otness Fr Av
Clayton Av
Cash Vg
Diaz Vg
Player Spotlight - Dustin Pedroia
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
OPS+ DR
Optimistic (15%) .314 .388 .481 156 570 92 179 49 2 14 90 61 37 7 0
122 7
Mean .292 .359 .431 150 548 76 160 44 1 10 62 51 43 3 1
102 3
Pessimistic (15%) .266 .324 .362 131 478 55 127 31 0 5 52 39 43 1 2
76 -1
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Ron Hunt, Billy Herman, Newt Hoenikker
Player Spotlight - Jacoby Ellsbury
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
OPS+ DR
Optimistic (15%) .327 .386 .451 151 618 116 202 44 6 7 83 50 71 60 5
115 8
Mean .297 .349 .392 134 549 87 163 34 3 4 58 37 72 43 6
91 5
Pessimistic (15%) .276 .317 .348 115 471 63 130 26 1 2 46 25 72 30 6
71 1
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Richie Ashburn, Vada Pinson
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR
BB K
Jon Papelbon 27 1.57 5 0 61 0 63.0 41 11 4
15 87
Hideki Okajima* 32 3.09 4 1 63 0 64.0 56 22 7
18 65
Josh Beckett 28 3.77 16 9 30 30 191.0 181 80 21
54 172
Manny Delcarmen 26 3.77 4 2 63 0 74.0 69 31 5
36 68
Mike Timlin 42 3.78 4 3 68 0 69.0 72 29 6
19 40
Daisuke Matsuzaka 27 3.95 15 10 29 28 196.0 189 86 22
60 177
Lee Gronkiewicz 29 4.07 4 3 55 1 73.0 74 33 11
15 57
Javier Lopez* 30 4.19 3 2 72 0 58.0 60 27 3
27 36
Brendan Donnelly 36 4.20 3 3 48 0 45.0 45 21 5
16 36
Curt Schilling 41 4.25 11 10 28 28 178.0 191 84 24
26 146
Bryan Corey 34 4.32 6 4 60 0 73.0 75 35 8
26 55
LEAGUEA AVERAGE RELIEVER ----- 4.42
-----------------------------------------------
Craig Breslow* 27 4.44 4 3 55 0 77.0 79 38 8
33 58
Clay Buchholz 23 4.47 9 8 28 27 135.0 134 67 20
53 120
Kyle Snyder 30 4.50 3 3 57 0 66.0 70 33 7
23 48
Tim Wakefield 41 4.62 13 13 30 30 185.0 192 95 26
65 117
Justin Masterson 23 4.68 7 7 22 16 102.0 115 53 11
34 51
Julian Tavarez 35 4.71 6 6 53 12 109.0 121 57 11
41 64
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.81
-----------------------------------------------
Jon Lester* 24 4.93 8 8 30 29 148.0 158 81 18
75 100
Craig Hansen 24 5.03 5 3 49 2 68.0 72 38 5
42 45
Devern Hansack 30 5.31 7 9 27 20 127.0 143 75 23
45 84
Michael Bowden 21 5.50 7 9 27 27 131.0 151 80 22
52 80
Mike Burns 29 5.53 3 5 42 8 83.0 99 51 14
24 44
Michael Tejera* 31 5.65 5 7 33 14 110.0 129 69 17
45 52
Jon Switzer* 28 5.87 2 4 44 5 69.0 76 45 7
27 37
David Pauley 25 6.02 5 8 26 26 151.0 186 101 28
53 75
Abe Alvarez* 25 6.02 5 10 26 21 121.0 146 81 22
50 61
Edgar Martinez 26 6.05 2 5 47 0 64.0 74 43 14
30 43
Kyle Jackson 25 6.81 3 9 46 0 74.0 81 56 15
66 62
Daniel Haigwood* 24 7.29 2 7 22 21 100.0 117 81 23
84 73
John Barnes 32 8.14 3 9 19 16 84.0 100 76 17
105 47
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - Josh Beckett
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Optimistic (15%) 3.08 21 7 33 33 216 186 74 20 51 200 152
Mean 3.77 16 9 30 30 191 181 80 21 54 172 124
Pessimistic (15%) 4.65 10 10 24 24 151 157 78 21 52 125 101
Top Near-Age Comps: Bill Monboquette, Jack McDowell
Player Spotlight - Daisuke Matsuzaka
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Optimistic (15%) 3.28 18 9 32 31 222 196 81 21 58 208 143
Mean 3.95 15 10 29 28 196 189 86 22 60 177 119
Pessimistic (15%) 4.91 10 11 24 23 154 164 84 22 57 129 96
Top Near-Age Comps: Andy Benes, Bill Singer
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors
-
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in
2008.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will
play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when
predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a
mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally
unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40
ERA.
--
M.Lowell J.Lugo J.Varite Dice-K D.Pedroi D.Ortiz M.Ramire C.Crisp J.D.Drew
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◆ From: 140.137.20.1
→ majohn:其實比較好奇的是這個預估準確度到底如何-_- 01/28 15:06
→ majohn:我找看看有沒有去年度的預估 01/28 15:07
→ majohn:照他的預估值看起來真的不太好XD 01/28 15:07
→ majohn:orz...找不到.... 01/28 15:13
推 charlietu:Manny被看好扁....... 01/28 19:42
推 maxspeed150:ZiPS永遠就只是ZiPS阿....參考看看就好 01/28 23:07
→ maxspeed150:也許今年MaXX DeXXXXXX會單季拿14勝也說不定XD 01/28 23:08
推 IronChef:樓上那個明年ZIPS在國連的ERA是5.XX ㄎㄎ 01/29 02:36