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Advanced stats: Atlantic Division could be best in league
細說進階數據：沉沒的亞特蘭堤斯重見天日
大西洋組將成為聯盟最強悍的分區
John Schuhmann / NBA.com
Posted Sep 13, 2012 11:52 AM - Updated Sep 13, 2012 3:33 PM
http://tinyurl.com/9ftrjnv
Here's a crazy thought: The Atlantic Division, just three
years after it sent only one team to the playoffs, could be
the best in basketball.
我有個轟動武林驚動萬教的想法：三年之前只有綠色苜蓿探出海平面的
大西洋組，將會成為今年全NBA競爭最強的分區。
The Boston Celtics have retooled and look to be the second
best team in the Eastern Conference. The New York Knicks will
once again be a dangerous playoff team. The Brooklyn Nets
should be the most improved team in the league. The
Philadelphia 76ers just got themselves a franchise player. And
the Toronto Raptors should take another step forward under
Dwane Casey.
波士頓重新梳理了他們的輪替，並且希望維持住他們東區第二的位置；
紐約已經重返季後賽，並且仍然是支危險的隊伍；布魯克林大概是全聯
盟當中引援規模最大的球隊；費城得到了新一代的招牌球員；甚至連遠
在楓葉國的多倫多，都在Dwane Casey的計畫中，向正確的方向上邁開
大步。
Each team, of course, had some issues last year, mostly on the
offensive end of the floor. The question is how well those
issues can be addressed. So here's a deeper look at a key stat
from last season for each team, and how that number might
change this year.
當然每個球隊在上個球季都有他們自己的問題，尤其大部分都是出在進
攻端。所以我們將以進階數據為工具帶領大家深入瞭解大西洋組的五個
球隊，並且分析今年他們將如何克服問題並且取得數字上的進步。
Boston Celtics
Record: 39-27
Pace: 92.6 (22)
OffRtg: 98.9 (24)
DefRtg: 95.5 (2)
NetRtg: +3.4 (7)
Pace = Possessions per 48 minutes
(攻速 / 四十八分鐘平均攻勢次數)
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
(進攻效率 / 每一百波進攻平均得分)
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
(防守效率 / 每一百波進攻平均失分)
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions
(淨得失分速率 / 每一百波進攻得失分差)
The Celtics have regressed offensively each of the last four
seasons. Last season, their big drop-off was largely due to
their free-throw rate. After ranking in the top 10 in each of
the first four seasons with the big three, they ranked 22nd
last season, getting to the line just 26 times per 100 field
goal attempts.
綠色苜蓿過去在三巨頭時代一向不需要擔心他們的進攻效率，但是上個
球季他們上罰球線的效率有著明顯的下降。一開始的四年他們的罰球率
(FTA/FGA)一直都是全聯盟前十位，但是今年他們下降到倒數第九名，
每一百次的出手他們只能換到26次的罰球。
One big reason for the drop in free throw rate was Kevin
Garnett's move to center, with Brandon Bass (another jump
shooter) replacing him at power forward. That will be the
starting frontline again this season, so it will be difficult
for the Celtics to get to the line much more often.
最大的差距在於他們將Kevin Garnett換到了中鋒位置，而將另外一個
跳投人Brandon Bass放到了先發四號。而這個狀況在今年將會持續，因
為他們還是必須讓Bass跟Big Ticket一起先發，所以一個很顯而易見的
憂慮就是他們上罰球線的優勢將再也回不去了。
Jason Terry, Courtney Lee and Jeff Green are all solid
additions, but none of the three will get to the line much.
The Celtics' only hope for more trips to the stripe may be
whether rookie Jared Sullinger can earn a spot in the
rotation. Sullinger attempted 52 free throws per 100 field
goal attempts at Ohio State last season, and shot them at a
decent clip (77 percent) for a big man.
Jet/Lee/Green都是不錯的輪替球員，但是他們沒有辦法協助綠色苜蓿
從賺犯規上罰球線的掙扎與短缺中有所斬獲。他們唯一的機會就是讓
Buckeyes的明星Jered Sullinger趕緊準備好，至少可以在輪替中成為
固定一員，因為Sully過去在OSU就以他製造犯規的驚人效率聞名，他
可以在100次出手當中賺到52次上罰球線的機會，而且罰球命中率高達
77%，身為一個進攻主力與長人來說，這樣的數字非常驚人。
Brooklyn Nets
Record: 22-44
Pace: 92.7 (21)
OffRtg: 99.7 (23)
DefRtg: 106.9 (29)
NetRtg: -7.2 (28)
Four of the Nets' five starters are returnees, but you
basically have to throw out last year's numbers. Gerald
Wallace played just 16 games with the Nets last season, Brook
Lopez played just five, and Joe Johnson adds an entirely new
element to the mix.
雖然帳面上看起來，籃網的四個先發都是他們去年留下來重簽的，但是
你基本上可以不用拿去年的數字來跟今年比較。Gerald Wallace去年經
由交易入隊，只有先發16場；Brook Lopez因傷所困僅僅先發五場；而
他們還加入了非常驚人的Joe Johnson提昇自己先發的火力水準。
Deron Williams has never played with a wing scorer like
Johnson, and Johnson hasn't played with a dynamic point guard
like Williams since he left Phoenix seven years ago. The two
should make each other's lives easier.
Deron Williams無論在鹽湖城還是在紐華克都從來沒有跟Joe Johnson
這個等級的側翼球員共事的機會；而反過來說，Johnson在離開鳳凰城
後也從來沒有跟Deron Williams這個等級的明星控球聯手過。這兩個人
的組合將很有可能成就如魚得水、互利共生一般的正面結果。
When Williams was on the floor last season, his Nets teammates
had a true shooting percentage of 52.7 percent, up from 49.8
percent when he was on the bench. When Johnson was on the
floor last season, his Hawks teammates had a true shooting
percentage of 53.8 percent, up from 51.9 percent when he was
on the bench. So both players make their teammates more
efficient.
以去年為例，當小胖在場上時，隊友的真實命中率(TS%)是52.7%，但是
當他休息時，隊友的TS%則會下降到49.8%；同樣的，去年Joe Johnson
在老鷹時，他在場時隊友的TS%是53.8%，而當他在場下時，隊友的TS%
下降到51.9%。換句話說，這兩個球員在場上都有讓隊友得分變得更簡
單有效率的能力。
True shooting percentage = PTS / (2 * (FGM + (0.44*FTA)))
真實命中率 TS% ： ｛ 得分 / [ 2 ( 命中數 + 0.44 * 罰球次數) ] ｝
Interior defense will certainly be an issue, but with an
All-Star backcourt, the potential is there for the Nets to be
a very potent offensive team.
當然很明顯的，籃網的內線防守將會是他們一大憂患，不過他們豪華且
能力強悍的後場組合將會帶領籃網的進攻邁向一個新的等級。
註：我個人是認為比較Joe Johnson跟Deron Williams的場上場下隊友真
實命中率並不是一個很好的指標，因為JJ去年上場60場，總共2127分鐘
(平均35.5)、小胖則是上場55場，總共1999分鐘(平均36.3)。他們在場
上支撐了大部分的時間，而且通常與他們同時上場的大部分都是先發球
員或是first unit，也就是說他下場時本身比較的隊友母群體，能力本
身就有極大的差異，比較起來要有兩個到三個百分點的差距似乎也不是
像John Schuhmann所講的這麼神奇，反而應該要扣掉這兩個群體應該有
的實力差距；因此可以說這個差距有非常大的可能是坐落在誤差範圍內
，而不能當作是球員能力的指標。當然無論如何，我相信Joe Johnson
跟Deron Williams他們在場上多年的表現都再再證明過他們是個能協助
隊友變得更好的球員，只是我對以這個數據作為佐證持保留態度。
New York Knicks
Record: 36-30
Pace: 95.7 (5)
OffRtg: 101.4 (19)
DefRtg: 98.4 (5)
NetRtg: +3.0 (10)
Tyson Chandler made a huge defensive impact on the Knicks last
season, taking them from the bottom 10 to the top five in
defensive efficiency. But maybe even more amazing was that a
team with Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire could be below
average offensively.
Tyson Chandler去年以一己之力拯救了尼克的防守，讓他們的防守一下
從聯盟後段班一路躍升到top 5。但是比起這個結果還要更神奇的其實
是：這個球隊同時擁有Melo跟Stat卻能夠在進攻效率排行榜上低於聯盟
平均。
Anthony and Stoudemire obviously have very little on-court
chemistry. The Knicks were even worse offensively (99.1 points
scored per 100 possessions) when the two were on the floor
together. And New York has been outscored by 123 points in the
1,880 minutes the two have played together over 1 and 1/2
seasons.
直到目前為止，Melo跟Stat的化學效應就像是兩個中性鹽溶液中和後，
完全不起任何反應。尼克的在此兩人共同上場時的進攻效率(Ortg)還比
他們去年的平均還要糟糕(99.1)。而且更糟糕的是當他們兩個同時上場
時(以過去一又二分之一球季的合作為母群體計算)，總共1,880分鐘內
他們的淨失分是可怕的123分。
But the Knicks really regressed in just two offensive
categories last season, and neither has much to do with how
well Anthony and Stoudemire mesh on the floor. New York went
from fourth (in 2010-11) to 27th in turnover rate, and from
eighth to 21st in 3-point percentage.
不過慶幸的是，除了默契之外，他們的問題蠻簡單的：只要他們把失誤
速率(前年第四，上季倒數第四)與三分球命中率(前年第八，上季倒數
第十)的問題解決的話，他們的進攻效率將能有效提昇。
There's plenty of reason to believe that the turnover issues
will be (mostly) resolved this season. First, Anthony isn't
going to be playing point forward anymore. Second, Jeremy Lin,
who committed almost five turnovers per 36 minutes, is gone.
Third, Davis is also gone, and the Knicks had a worse turnover
rate with Davis on the floor (18.7 turnovers per 100
possessions) than they did with Lin on the floor (17.2).
尤其是改善失誤率的部份，我想紐約人有樂觀的看待失誤問題會順利解
決的資格。首先，Melo將不再打控球前鋒；再者，去年讓他們失誤率大
幅增加的Jeremy Lin(平均36分鐘5次失誤)已經遠走南疆；最後，他們
本季不需要再看到Baron Davis上場，他的失誤率甚至還比Jeremy Lin
還要悽慘，Lin在場時一百波進攻「只會」發生17.2次失誤，而天使城
人在場時則「高達」18.7次。
New point guard Raymond Felton wasn't much better than Lin in
terms of turnover rate last season. But the Knicks did take
care of the ball pretty well when he was running the point two
years ago. They committed just 14.1 turnovers per 100
possessions in Felton's 2,074 minutes on the floor.
雖然他們本季預定的先發控球Raymond Felton去年也沒有在這個領域上
取得比較優秀的數字，但是尼克在以前擁有Felton時，當時Felton的失
誤控制相當的不錯。當Felton兩年前還在紐約時，他在2,074分鐘的上
場時間當中，每一百波進攻只會出現14.1次失誤。
註: 但是現在的尼克與當時的尼克陣型又有所不同，甚至教練也不再是
Mike D'Antoni。他要如何在Woodson的系統當中同時滿足Melo與Stat的
進攻模式與spacing同時又要降低失誤，絕對是個挑戰。
Philadelphia 76ers
Record: 35-31
Pace: 91.9 (24)
OffRtg: 101.7 (17)
DefRtg: 96.6 (3)
NetRtg: +5.1 (5)
The Sixers set an NBA record by turning the ball over just
11.2 times per game last season. But in every other aspect,
their offense was pretty bad. And the Celtics' free throw rate
problems (described above) were minor compared to those of
Philly, who attempted less than 22 free throws per 100 field
goal attempts.
去年七六人節制失誤的次數(每場11.2次)是歷史等級的優秀，但是這對
他們去年平凡的進攻似乎沒有太大的幫助。更糟糕的是，我們前文提到
綠色苜蓿創造罰球機會的能力是如此的不足，但是在七六人去年的表現
面前(平均100次出手只能創造22次罰球)，綠軍只能算是小巫見大巫。
Enter Andrew Bynum, whose free throw rate was almost twice
that. Bynum and Elton Brand played the same amount of games
last season, but Bynum (338) attempted 222 more free throws
than Brand (116) did. Of course, like Brand, the two guys who
led the Sixers in free throw attempts last season, Lou
Williams (292) and Andre Iguodala (196) are gone.
不過在電車男的加入後，這樣的罰球乾旱將能被期待有效解決。Bynum
光是自己個人的罰球率就是七六人上計團隊數字的兩倍。而且仔細端詳
後你會發現Bynum跟Brand去年的上場場次一樣，但是Bynum(338FTA)創
造了比Brand多222次的罰球次數。但是除此之外，七六人在罰球數的短
缺還發生在離隊球員所帶走的貢獻上，AI9(196FTA)與Lou(292FTA)的空
缺將必須想辦法填補，才能真正解決七六人同樣是歷史級的罰球荒。
Really, with Bynum on board, the Sixers' offense should be
very different. Replacing Brand with Bynum, they should be
less of a jump-shooting team. Only two teams (Charlotte and
Boston) attempted a greater percentage of their shots from
mid-range than the Sixers did last season. And Brand took more
than half of his shots from outside the paint.
不唬你，在電車男孩加入後，七六人連進攻都將變得很不一樣。用安豬
取代EB的正面影響還體現在進攻模式上，七六人將不再是一個極端依靠
跳投的球隊。去年只有山貓與波士頓這兩支球隊比七六人更依賴跳投機
會取分，而Brand就是其中的一個關鍵，他的出手有超過一半是在禁區
之外完成。
Bynum, despite his professed affinity for launching threes,
took 90 percent of his shots from the paint. He's a big man
who plays big, and that should benefit the Sixers offensively.
雖然大家都拿他那個三分出來說嘴，但是Bynum有超過90%的出手機會是
在禁區內取得，他將像是一個巨人一般支撐與加強七六人的進攻端。
Toronto Raptors
Record: 23-43
Pace: 91.6 (28)
OffRtg: 98.5 (25)
DefRtg: 101.5 (12)
NetRtg: -3.0 (23)
The Raptors were the most improved defensive team in the
league last season, but they also regressed quite a bit
offensively. And, like the Knicks, their biggest issue was
turnovers, committing 16.5 of them per 100 possessions, the
fifth-highest rate in the league.
暴龍是去年聯盟當中防守端進步最多的球隊，但是他們在進攻端的表現
只能用千山鳥飛絕來形容。而且，就如同紐約人一樣，多倫多也面臨了
脫離失誤輪迴的迫切問題，去年每一百波進攻當中多倫多會出現16.5次
的失誤，這是聯盟倒數第五。
It wasn't long ago (2007-08) that the Raps had the lowest
turnover rate in the league, and they ranked sixth just two
seasons ago. But point guard Jose Calderon's turnover
percentage has risen each of the last two years.
但是在幾年之前他們曾經在這個排行榜上佔據排頭集團的位置，他們兩
季之前是這個排行榜的第六位，但是他們的發動機Jose Calderon出現
了跳俥問題，曾經是這個項目不動王者的他在過去兩個球季失誤率都往
上攀升，亮起了紅燈。
The addition of Kyle Lowry could take some of the pressure off
Calderon to make plays, but Lowry himself probably won't help
in the turnover department. His rate of 18.8 turnovers per 100
possessions was worse than Calderon's and 22nd among starting
point guards last season.
Kyle Lowry的到來將有可能協助Calderon降壓，但是Lowry本身也不是
善於節制失誤的控球後衛。他去年在一百波進攻當中會出現18.8次的失
誤，這比陷入低潮的西班牙人還要驚人，在聯盟的先發控球當中這是倒
數第九的表現。
Either way, the return of Andrea Bargnani and the addition of
Jonas Valanciunas should give the Raptors' offense a boost.
But if Lowry and Calderon can do a better job of taking care
of the ball, than the two bigs can make more of an impact.
不過無論如何，義大利人Andrea Bargnani的歸隊以及立陶宛人Jonas
Valanciunas的加入將能夠有效協助暴龍在進攻端重回正軌。但若是兩
位控球後衛能夠找到辦法把他們手上的小皮球牢牢抓好並且安全的送到
隊友手上，那將能夠大大地增加Bargnani跟Jonas在進攻端的產出。
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