[情報] Spurs vs Mavericks: Who knows?

[stan90203 (鯰魚賢)]

Spurs vs Mavericks: Who knows?
by Wayne Vore (ATS) on Apr 16, 2010 8:51 AM CDT in Analysis


http://tinyurl.com/y2geq7d


I started this season with the highest of high hopes. Slowly, over the course
of the first 61 games, those hopes were ground down into dried bits of poo.
Fragments of compost ready to be spread across my lawn. Mediocrity and
inconsistency abounded. Over the last 21 games, hope sprang out of the poo
like a field of poppies. We went from looking uninspired and discombobulated
to looking like the class of the league.

我原先對馬刺本季寄予厚望。漸漸經過了61場比賽，這些希望逐一成空。


Now, after 82 games, we enter the playoffs and I have no idea at all what to
expect. We enter as a ridiculously low seven seed. But, we finished the year
only 5 games behind the two seed. Only 3 games back if we didn't tank the
last one. Really, I just have no clue at this point. No result would surprise
me. Lose in 5 games to the Mavs. Ok. Push the Lakers to 7 in the conference
finals. Fine. Absolutely blow up and make a run to the championship. Awesome.
Surprised? No.

至今打完了82場例行賽，我們進了季後賽，但我不知道能期待些什麼。我們是第七種子，
真是荒謬的低！不過我們也僅落後第二種子五場勝差罷了。如果沒有保留最後一場，我們
能在前進一名。說真的，我百思不得其解，我們差小牛5場，湖人更是差到7場。


I'm doing two series previews in one post. One is a glass half empty.  The
other is a glass half full.

我將做兩種截然不同的預測。


Glass Half Empty


Injuries
Tony is still rusty and suffering from plantar fascitis. George is on a bad
wheel and will be slowed on the defensive end where his defense on Terry will
be critical. Tim's knee has slowed him to a crawl and he will get pushed
around by Haywood and Dampier.

受傷：

Parker還沒恢復身手，而且還是深受足底筋膜炎之苦。
Hill的腳就像壞掉的輪胎一樣，在防守端遇上Terry會很慘。
Duncan的膝蓋拖累了他的速度，而且他將會被Haywood和Dampier輪番伺候。


Dirk and Matchups
We still don't have anybody who can make Dirk work for a shot. When it comes
to money time, he will continue to eat our lunch with his mid-range game. We
have a matchup problem when the play Dirk at the 4. It gets worse when they
play him at the 5. When the Mavs go small, who will Tim cover? A lineup of
Dirk, Butler, Marion, Terry, and Kidd will create a LOT of problems for the
Spurs.

Dirk的對位：

我們還是沒人能守Dirk。
當Dirk打4號位時我們有對位的問題。
如果當Dirk打5號位，小牛場上擺小，Duncan要守誰？小牛場上將是Dirk、Butler、Marion
、Terry和Kidd，而且Kidd將會給馬刺製造大量的麻煩。


Lack of Role Player Production
Manu's brilliance won't be able to carry us through a tough playoff series
where we will rely heavily on our 3-point shooting which wasn't all that good
in the first place. Who, from the role players, is going to step up and make
the big shots? We have no proven clutch performers on our bench. Nobody who
can play the big fourth quarter that you need from a random non-superstar in
the playoffs. Call it the Horry role. Who's going to be the random player
that drains two 3's and hits a couple free throws in a big fourth quarter
run? It's not going to be one of the young guys. Temple, Blair, and Hairston?
I don't think so. Bonner and Mason? Not if last year's playoffs are an
indicator. McDyess and Bogans. Um, a possibility I guess. Rage? I don't think
he has taken over a regular season fourth quarter yet. Much less a playoff
game fourth quarter.

功能性球員的貢獻不足

Manu精湛的球技無法帶領我們通過強硬的季後賽，我們在季後賽將非常依賴三分球，但命
中率澇賽不是一兩天的事了。哪位功能性球員能站出來，投出關鍵的一球呢？我們沒有一
名板凳球員有過這樣的表現。季後賽關鍵的第四節沒辦法仰賴隨便一個非巨星級的球員。
誰將當那個連投兩個三分，罰進好幾球的隨機球員呢？
不會是那幾位年輕人，像是Temple、Blair和Hairston。
那Bonner和Mason呢？我想不是，如果去年的季後賽是個指標的話。
McDyess和Bogans...恩...我猜有點可能。
Jefferson？我不認為他在季賽有接掌第四節的比賽。


Physical Playoff Basketball
The Mavericks really pushed us around in the paint and on the glass last
year. This year, they are bigger and stronger and longer. They are an older,
more physical, more veteran team that also has a lot of athleticism. I don't
think we will be able to match them physically when the games get rougher and
fouls are harder to come by.

強力肉體對抗的季後賽

小牛去年首我們禁區守得死死的，今年他們更高更大更強壯了。他們是更老一歲，更有對
抗性，更有老將經驗的球隊。我不認為我們能在比賽更加強悍、犯規等級提升的比賽中跟
他們對位。


Prediction: Mavs in 5

我的預測：馬刺1-4小牛


Glass Half Full

Health
Tony is back. He looked full speed and healthy against the T'Wolves. He's
getting his rhthym and he proved last year that he can score at will against
the Mavs. George is fine. A little set back and with the Sunday game one and
Wednesday game two he will have plenty of time to get healthy. Same for Tim.
He didn't play against the Mavs Wednesday and will be spry on Sunday. This
team is in great shape health-wise.

健康：

Parker回來了，對灰狼時他看起來很健康，還恢復了全部的速度。他找回了節奏，而且他
去年證明了對上小牛他可以恣意得分。
Hill很好，不過星期天和星期三的比賽讓他需要許多時間回復健康的身體。
Duncan也是一樣的，星期對小牛他沒上場，保留戰力周日再戰。
馬刺看起來是朝著健康的雛形前進的。


Manu and Matchups
They don't have anybody capable of shutting down Manu. I don't even think
they have somebody that can slow him down. His brilliance in the
pick-and-roll will draw the Mavs bigs away from the basket and leave Dirk as
the free safety. Good luck with that Dirk. Dampier will have limited success
guarding Tim, as has always been the case, but Tim almost always dominates
him and gets him into foul trouble. Haywood? I don't think so. He's never
been good and he's not going to be good against playoff Timmy. AND, the Mavs
still don't have anybody to guard Tony.

Manu的貢獻

小牛沒人能拿Manu的輒。我甚至想不到他們有誰能讓Manu的腳步慢下來。
他傑出的pick-and-roll能力會把小牛球員拉離籃下，讓Dirk變成一個游衛的角色(*註)。
Dampier沒什麼機會能成功守住Duncan，還會讓自己陷入犯規麻煩。
至於Haywood呢？他從來都不夠好，而且他也無法成功防守季後賽的Duncan。
而且還有一點，小牛還是沒人守得住Parker。


Tony IS the Role Player

Tony will be the anchor of the second unit coming off the bench. He will
provide the scoring punch when Manu is resting and never give the Mavs any
chance to relax or put us in a long scoring drought. With Tony penetrating,
the role players will only have to make their open shots. Additionally, I
think Rage will actually step his game up for the playoffs from his regular
season performance. I think he and Bogans will actually have a really good
series. They are both rough veterans who will perform better in the more
physical playoffs.


Parker的功能很重要

Parker是板凳第二個後盾來源，他能在Manu休息時給予得分力量，讓小牛沒有放鬆的機會
或是讓我們陷入長時間的得分乾旱。
大家要利用Parker的切入找空檔投籃。
除此之外，我想Jefferson在季後賽會從他季賽的表現中爆發出來。他和Bogans在這系列賽
將會表現得很好。他們都是粗野的老手，而且在肉體碰撞更強的季後賽中能表現得更好。


Head Case Playoff Basketball

The Mavs have head cases. Haywood and Terry, in particular, have proven to
have issues. Marion has never been a playoff performer. I'm not sure Butler
has ever been in a tight series. Stevenson? Hahahahaha!!!

最重要的，這是季後賽

特別是Haywood和Terry，已經證明是有些爭議的。
Marion從未在季後賽有特別爆發。
我不敢說Butler有經歷過如次高強度的系列賽。
至於Stevenson？科科


Prediction: Spurs in 4

我的預測：馬刺4-0小牛

--

*註：(google來的，http://som.twbbs.org/klee/notebook/note101.htm)

Safety 在美式足球裏除了「安全」之外還有二個特別的解釋。一個指的是 strong
safety (強衛) 或 free safety(游衛)，這是兩個防守位置的名稱，常合稱 safety。另
外 safety 還可以指一種特殊的得分狀況，也就是指進攻的球員持球，但卻在自己的達陣
區觸地，這時不但對方白白得到兩分，同時還把進攻權讓給對方，這種情況也稱之為
 safety。所以要是老美說，"We're looking for a safety." 這句話可能有兩種意思，
一是「我們正在找一個能打 safety 位置的球員」，另一個可能則是，「我們正尋求一個
 safety 的得分機會。」

有什麼樣的情況會造成 safety 呢？怎麼會自己持球在己方的達陣區觸地呢？比如說吧，
現在甲隊進攻至乙隊門前三碼處，結果 fumble，進攻權就變成乙隊的，所以這時乙隊由
自己的三碼處開始進攻，但是當乙隊的球員拿到球後，卻被甲隊一個 tackle 給撞進自己
的達陣區，這就是一個發生 safety 的可能情況，此時甲隊平白得到兩分，而且重新由乙
方開球，甲方進攻

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 118.166.74.136
※ 編輯: stan90203       來自: 118.166.74.136       (04/16 23:39)
推 demongreg:前面好悲觀〒△〒大概是十年來最悲觀的一年？
推 pedroremorse:我06年的時候對馬刺很樂觀啊 當年戰績也超好
推 koflll:打了再說
→ pedroremorse:可是還是沒奪冠 即使不提那個失誤 事實就是馬刺沒有
推 alex40214:Rage是誰阿
→ pedroremorse:比對手高出一截的實力 所以悲觀一點也不錯
推 Kshatri:  後面好樂觀￣▽￣大概是十年來最樂觀的一年？
推 mindd:RJ
→ stan90203:看文章寫起來Rage好像是在指Jefferson？
※ 編輯: stan90203       來自: 118.166.74.136       (04/16 23:43)
推 CseSquall:RJ = Rage
推 Kshatri:Rage of Jefferson  傑佛森之怒(誤)
推 qtbang:這篇太好笑了
推 bryant780113:我想勝出的關鍵還是在三分 MASON BONNER等人要硬起來
→ bryant780113:出手要有信心一點
推 jack0124:三分平均命中率有3成以上應該就會晉級
→ jack0124:四成以上就剃人家光頭吧XDDD
推 susy88kent:放開來打吧
推 yukowolf:TP以往遇到Kidd都會爆氣,希望今年的腳傷不會影響他
推 zenithal:我覺得Hill的腳傷真的太雖小了 若是健康的話
→ zenithal:我們還是有優勢的
推 PVD:這什麼鬼XDDD
→ dogville:最好和最壞的情況都說了不就等於
→ yabbie:                                沒說
→ Dawn721:這篇超靠腰XD  沒看到開頭"我將做兩種截然不同的預測"這句
→ Dawn721:看到中間反轉整個有笑出來 什麼鬼啊這XD
推 kimisky:跟樓上一樣XD
我想重點在
1. 傷勢：尤其是Hill，再來就Parker。傷好了就好，傷沒好久不太妙
2. 三分球：命中率又澇賽的話(像最後一場那樣)，Blair拿30-30都救不了我們
3. DIFF：小牛是2.7...雖然戰績好，但感覺最不穩
至於Dirk，我想知道地球上有什麼人能守他的後仰跳投...就祈禱他剛好都沒進吧！
※ 編輯: stan90203       來自: 118.166.71.141       (04/17 09:12)
推 Kshatri:我想看xcxcxc發表一下要怎麼做才能增加馬刺勝算(誤)
推 nightknightz:馬岱好像八過司機後仰的火鍋?
推 yieh:叫馬妞從司機背後巴巴看
推 pigwesley:總結: 5:4 馬刺勝
推 koflll:乾脆學海南的宮益守櫻木那一招算了  看會不會有效果 @@
推 parkerwind:把其他人守死會不會比較好?
推 max9527:考杯..反差也太大了 前面超黑暗 後面又很HIGH
推 gotohikaru:馬岱蓋司機那場也是被吃很大啊 輪了五個人去守
推 ehi1981:季後就是穩定/不要有意外,如果司機就是預期會爆的點,那就
推 ehi1981:盡可能別讓其他人加入戰局,Kidd,Terry&Marion是季後經驗充
→ ehi1981:分外,Butler&Haywood止於一輪,另外很衝Barea和近期火熱的
→ ehi1981:Beaubois...看今早,不是說Celtics防守沒作用但熱火是連空
→ ehi1981:檔都敗給壓力,最後根本是Wade1打5,其他人完全起不到作用
→ ehi1981:更不用說小歐愈打愈外面只有翻身不進,Billups跟DW身體抗衡
→ ehi1981:之激烈,沒哨音...這才是季後賽!
→ stan90203:看到DW跟前面的推文，以為是WADE...