[IPRC] News Release [pdf檔案]
http://tinyurl.com/ymmoml
An El Nino has been developing in the equatorial Pacific since early
summer and will likely grow in strength over the next two months,
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
[West Hawaii Today] El Nino brewing up dry winter for Hawaii
http://www.westhawaiitoday.com/articles/2006/10/25/local/local05.prt
What is remarkable about the findings of UH-Manoa's Shang-Ping Xie,
professor of meteorology, and H. Annamalai, an atmospheric scientist,
is that they base their conclusions on cool conditions in the eastern
Indian Ocean.
[Shang-Ping Xie(氣象學教授,UH-Manoa)及H. Annamalai(大氣學者)根據他們得到
的結論－東印度洋冷卻因素。]
http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/news/images/06_10sst.anom_mid_sept_oct.gif
[在東印度洋海溫明顯降低了..]
But scientists studying the "poster boy" of climate variability during
the past 20 to 30 years have ignored conditions in the Indian Ocean,
likely thinking it showed too little variation to excite any interest.
[在過去20～30年，科學家總是以變化較小而忽略印度洋的影響。]
That changed in the fall of 1997 when a rapid cooling of the normally
warm Indian Ocean off Indonesia caught the interest of climate researchers.
[引發科學家對印度洋開始感到興趣是在1997年(強聖嬰年)的秋天，在印尼附近的
印度洋面海溫迅速冷卻(？)]
Dubbed the Indian Ocean Dipole, the event was taking place simultaneously
to a severe El Nino in the Pacific Ocean, scientists noticed.
[這個現象稱作「Dubbed the Indian Ocean Dipole」，同樣也發生在太平洋]
In a study published last year in "Journal of Climate," a team of
scientists headed by Annamalai found the cooling weakens atmospheric
convection over the region, which in turn sends atmospheric "waves,"
known as Kelvin waves, along the Equator to the Pacific. These waves
cause anomalous westerly winds which have been associated with El Nino
for some time.
[在去年出版的"氣候學報"裡......(在講如何形成，不知怎嚜翻@@)]
Xie said Japanese scientists last month alerted the center that such a
cooling episode was taking place.
[Xie(夏威夷大學氣象學教授)說有日本科學家在上個月發出警訊，有一個相同的冷
卻效應正發生。]
Further study of the last 35 years of data revealed that if the cooling
was associated with an El Nino, there was a good chance the El Nino would
grow greatly in strength during the fall.
[在最近35年的資料中，發現在秋天時一旦冷卻現象與聖嬰現象同時發生，
則聖嬰現象有加強的可能]
For instance, the two super El Ninos of 1982-83 and 1997-98 were both
accompanied by the cooling conditions.
[例如，兩次超級聖嬰：1982～1983與1997～1998就是這種環境下的產物]
"We suggest that it was these Indian Ocean conditions that powered the
disturbances into the El Nino of the century," said Xie, who added that
the cooling conditions did not exist when relatively weak El Nino formed
in 2002 and 2004.
[Xie說：「我們建議將印度洋的情形納入聖嬰現象的條件中」，因為當印度洋冷
卻未發生時的聖嬰現象反而微弱，例如2002年及2004年]
While El Nino predictions have been carried out throughout the globe,
intensity forecasts have generally been poor. In fact, the 1982 and 1997
El Ninos caught scientists by surprise.
[聖嬰現象在全球預報中通常是較弱的，但1982及1997讓科學家跌破眼鏡]
"This could be because many prediction models did not include the Indian
Ocean or treated it inadequately," said Annamalai. "We hope our results
will help improve the accuracy of El Nino prediction. The ongoing El Nino
is putting our hypothesis to the test."
[Annamalai說："很多預測模型都沒有包含印度洋的影響，希望這個結論能邦預測
聖嬰現象更多準確"]
Xie said the connection between El Nino and the Indian Ocean illustrates
the need for worldwide monitoring of ocean temperatures and weather
conditions.
[Xie認為印度洋海溫因素有全球監視聖嬰是否發生的必要]
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 140.122.150.47
> -------------------------------------------------------------------------- <
發信人: [email protected] (夢白), 看板: TY_Research
標 題: Re: [新聞] 超級聖嬰將報到 美、日、澳都提出警告
發信站: 無名小站 (Wed Nov 1 03:30:00 2006)
轉信站: ptt!Group.NCTU!grouppost!Group.NCTU!wretch
※ 引述《[email protected]》之銘言：
> In a study published last year in "Journal of Climate," a team of
> scientists headed by Annamalai found the cooling weakens atmospheric
> convection over the region, which in turn sends atmospheric "waves,"
> known as Kelvin waves, along the Equator to the Pacific. These waves
> cause anomalous westerly winds which have been associated with El Nino
> for some time.
> [在去年出版的"氣候學報"裡......(在講如何形成，不知怎嚜翻@@)]
一組由 Annamalai 為首的研究團隊發現:
因冷卻而減弱了的大氣對流在這個區域裡引發了大氣"波動"，即著名的凱文波
(Kelvin wave)，他會沿著赤道而傳遞至太平洋。由於這個波的關係，
使的原本了助長 El Nino 形成的西風氣流，在有些時候受到影響進而產生變化。
(按: 對Kelvin wave 有興趣者請自行參考 Holton 所著的
An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology, Chapter 7)
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