[情報] 97W TCFA

[tytony (混沌的大氣)]

圖：http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9711.gif
文：http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9711web.txt

WTPN21 PGTW 240500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 180 NM RADIUS OF 15.4N 111.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 240430Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 111.2E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.1N
111.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 111.2E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN ISLAND, CHINA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 30 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. A 232309Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES WEAK
CONVECTIVE BANDING NORTH WRAPPING INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. A 240229Z
ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS NUMEROUS UNFLAGGED 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
WEST AND SOUTH QUADRANTS WITH SOME ISOLATED 30 KNOT WINDS. A BUOY
OBSERVATION (9VDD2) 94 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SHOWS WINDS AT 230/22
KNOTS. THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS) AND BROAD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTH INTO A
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. IT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE CONVECTIVELY, HOWEVER, THE LLCC HAS
STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250500Z.//
NNNN


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◆ From: 140.113.3.42
推 hito0509    :97W會影響17號颱風的走向嗎？
推 biostar     :西方的低壓不是會給東方的低壓有偏北移動的力量嗎？
推 DoraBoy     :JMA也發GW了
推 physbook    :距離有點遠吧
推 DoraBoy     :看渦度的分布 這隻短期內應該會向東北調整 然後
→ DoraBoy     :尼莎還正在快速西北西中 不排除到時候兩者會近到
→ DoraBoy     :會讓尼莎把這隻吸過來XD
推 DoraBoy     :後天可能是兩颱風最接近的時候 到時可觀察97W怎麼走
推 logdog      :給這傢伙拿到海棠Q___Q
→ logdog      :尼莎會不會走到台灣附近 然後把這知悉過去...(烏鴉嘴
推 aa1477888   :對數狗大說的可能性其實還不低XD
推 aa1477888   :20W東邊的有99W 西邊有97W 不知道對路徑影響大不大..
→ aa1477888   :如果三者的渦度連起來的話....?
推 cgunavy     :20W不動，然後97W.99W互旋XDDD
→ cgunavy     :已經升為21W了
推 puretd      :CWB預測後來的急拉北抬有點心驚
推 kit279      :聯結是錯誤的捏
推 physbook    :因為TCFA已經撤掉啦~~升格21W