[情報] TD-14W形成

[tytony (混沌的大氣)]

文 http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1411web.txt
圖 http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1411.gif

WTPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221800Z --- NEAR 15.0N 128.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 128.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 15.3N 128.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 15.6N 128.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 15.9N 128.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 16.2N 129.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 16.7N 129.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 18.7N 131.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 20.3N 134.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 128.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND CONSOLIDATION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 221318Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS 20-25 KNOT
WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE 221200Z PGTW GRADIENT
LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW IS WELL-
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES AND INTO THE EQUATORWARD
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. A 221725Z AMSRE IMAGE SHOWS AN ABUNDANCE OF
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. WATER
VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS A WELL-ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
VENTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CHANNEL IS A RESULT OF
INTERACTION WITH A STATIONARY TUTT CELL EAST OF THE RYUKYUS. TD 14W
IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT THAT IS PART OF A DEVELOPING
MONSOON GYRE. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOW INTENSIFICATION AS IT 
TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 48, THEN ACCELERATE TO THE 
NORTHEAST AS IT BEGINS A PERIOD OF DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH 
ANOTHER DEVELOPING CYCLONE. THE SECOND CYCLONE IS IN THE GENITIVE
STAGES, WEST OF THE MARIANAS. THERE IS GOOD QUALITATIVE AGREEMENT IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE IMPENDING FORMATION OF A MONSOON
GYRE OVER WESTPAC, BUT WIDE DISPARITY REGARDING THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF TD 14W DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. SUCH DISAGREEMENT IS
TO BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE INTRINSIC COMPLEXITY AND THE EARLY STAGE OF
THE DEVELOPING GYRE. THE JTWC TRACK USES CONSTANT BEARING AND RATE
OF MOVEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, THEN STAYS BETWEEN CONSENSUS AND ECMWF
IN THE EXTENDED RANGES. THE INTENSIFICATION RATE WILL BE SLOWER THAN
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE DEVELOPING
SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST OF TD 14W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 221800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z
AND 232100Z.//
NNNN

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◆ From: 140.113.3.42
推 easydo      :不知95W有沒有機會升格?現在看衛星雲圖 14W東方也有
→ easydo      :一大坨雲團
→ tytony      :看到某新聞台又在下恐嚇標題了...
→ tytony      :"雙低壓環伺！是否合併侵台 今明是關鍵"....(T*BS)
推 snocia      :JMA對14W發出GW，預測24小時內向東北龜速移動
→ easydo      :剛看了卡大的文 原來那一大坨雲團是97W
→ easydo      :看來97W升格的機會應該比95W大
推 v63718x4    :95W 被評為low了... 97W 生為medium