[情報] 97W TCFA

[tytony (混沌的大氣)]

文 http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9711web.txt
圖 http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9711.gif

WTPN21 PGTW 231530
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 185 NM RADIUS OF 15.8N 143.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 231500Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 143.0E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.6N
143.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 143.0E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AIR FORCE BASE, GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GUAM RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 230922Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWS A CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A
231118Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES A BROAD LLCC WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH QUADRANT WITH 10-15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
REMAINING QUADRANTS. THE LLCC IS LOCATED NEAR A DEVELOPING UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL
LOCATED NEAR 20N 165E AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS).
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND FORECAST MODEL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 12-36 HOURS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
241530Z.//
NNNN


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