推 logdog :ecmwf預測西太將會出現雙旋 04/23 10:14
ABPW10 PGTW 222200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/222200Z-230600ZAPR2009//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
92w (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.3N
119.1E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
93w (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.4N 143.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 465 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER
A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FOR THE PAST 12
HOURS. A 221208Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE LLCC IS ELONGATED
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS LOCATED ALONG
THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE
FAVORABLE WITH THE REGION FOR DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IN A REGION OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON
GOOD SST, FAVORABLE VWS, PERSISTENT CONVECTION, BUT AN ILL-DEFINED
LLCC THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) AND
DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//
NNNN
未來路徑:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/track.all.2009042212.
tc_wpac_ll.single.gif
縮: http://tinyurl.com/clxauq
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