推 markshian :JTWC跟EC目前似乎認為會偏北轉北@@,不過還有待觀察 09/02 08:42
推 jses1 :大西洋09L也生成了，目前和西北太一樣是三旋共立 09/02 08:47
推 DoraBoy :看駛流圖 強度愈強 應該就會愈偏西一點 09/02 08:59
推 tcytc :小程式可以跑一下看看 09/02 09:00
推 DoraBoy :不過在冷心低壓的東面 會害它的高層雲系一直往北飄 09/02 09:09
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1010.gif
WTPN33 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 16.9N 139.9E (註：關島西北方約650公里)
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 139.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.9N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.7N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 22.4N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 23.8N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 26.0N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 28.9N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 32.9N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 139.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 875 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THE 011935Z SSMI AND 011655Z AMSR-E IMAGES DEPICTED
A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MULTIPLE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
25 KNOTS, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
30 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES, BASED ON THE WEAK SIGNATURE. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY LIMITED (GFS, NOGAPS, WBAR) PLUS UKMO
FIELDS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER JAPAN THROUGH
TAU 72. AFTER TAU 96, TD 10W IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE SOUTH OF
THE KOREAN PENINSULA AHEAD OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO
DEEPEN OVER THE YELLOW SEA. THE MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD LEAD TO SLOW DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 36, BUT IMPROVING
OUTFLOW AFTER THIS TIME WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO
A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 96-120. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 011451Z SEP 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 011500). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z,
021500Z AND 022100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TYPHOON 08W (KOMPASU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
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