推 AnimalFarm :強ㄟ 厄爾尼諾 08/31 08:15
推 evanzxcv :大西洋也在趕進度 Danielle還沒掛 Fiona又冒出來了 08/31 08:46
→ evanzxcv :所以現在大西洋也是三旋 08/31 08:46
→ evanzxcv :目前Earl最可能影響的應該是北卡跟Cape Cod一帶 08/31 08:47
000
WTNT42 KNHC 302047
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 116 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND
108 KT SFMR SURFACE WINDS SHORTLY AFTER 1500 UTC. THIS WAS THE
BASIS FOR THE EARLIER INCREASE IN INTENSITY. SINCE THAT TIME...THE
PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO DROP AND WAS DOWN TO 955 MB ON THE LAST
DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE EYE AROUND 1700 UTC. SINCE THE AIRCRAFT
DEPARTED EARL...THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO CLEAR AND IS SURROUNDED BY
CLOUD TOPS TO -70 DEGREES CELSIUS OR COLDER. OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO JUST ABOVE 6.0 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KT...CATEGORY FOUR ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
偵察機在世界時一五零零時後不久測量到一一六節飛行高度風以及一零八節
SFMR海面風速. 這是稍早強度增強的依據. 自從該時之後...在世界時一七零零時
氣壓已持續下降,並在風眼釋放最後的投落送中降到九五五毫巴.自從偵查機飛離
厄爾...風眼持續清晰並被零下七十度或更低的雲頂溫度包圍. 客觀的衛星強度
估計已增加到德沃夏克值六之上並支持初始強度一一五節...在夏菲爾-辛普森
的第四級颶風風力值.
EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM
WATER DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. THEREAFTER...EYEWALL CYCLES WILL LIKELY
INDUCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT. THE NHC FORECAST IS AGAIN NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SHEAR WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.
厄爾預計在接下來數日維持在一個低風切和高海溫環境,以及有可能在短期內有
額外的增強. 此後...眼牆循環將可能導致強度上的變動...很難去預料.
本中心預報再次接近強度指引的高端. 到第四和第五日時...預報颶風
移動到應該會減弱的冷水域和增強的風切.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED AS EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 24
HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NOTICEABLY WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST
48 HOURS...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD...
PRIMARILY THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT PORTION OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL.
這是提醒每一個人的時機,本中心的路徑預報錯誤在第四日和第五日為二百到三百海浬.
根據此不確定性...這還是太早去推定東岸的哪一部分會有來自厄爾的直接的衝擊.
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L2M: 拉出珍珠的部份我保留，不過我有次在火鍋店的馬桶看到浮著一朵香菇 = =
Dvc:屎有餘菇阿
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