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原文題目：Scientists dig for lessons from past pandemics
題目譯文：
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原 文：
If there's a blessing in the current swine flu epidemic, it's how benign
the illness seems to be outside the central disease cluster in Mexico.
But history offers a dark warning to anyone ready to write off the 2009
H1N1 virus.
譯 文：
若說現今這波豬流感大流行中，還有點令人感到欣慰的部分，那就是在病例群聚的
核心—墨西哥─以外，此疾病的病程非常溫和。但是，如果我們想把2009年H1N1病
毒就此結案，歷史卻給了我們無情的警訊。
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原 文：
In each of the four major pandemics since 1889, a spring wave of relatively
mild illness was followed by a second wave, a few months later, of a much
more virulent disease. This was true in 1889, 1957, 1968 and in the
catastrophic flu outbreak of 1918, which sickened an estimated third of
the world's population and killed, conservatively, 50 million people.
譯 文：
在1889年之後的四次大規模流行中，都有一波較輕微的疾病先在春季流行，幾個月
後，再接著第二波毒性強很多的疾病疫情，在1889年、1957年、1968年，和疫情最
慘烈的1918年皆是如此。1918年，世界上大約有三分之一人口受到感染，保守估計
有五千萬人因而死亡。
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原 文：
Lone Simonson, an epidemiologist at the National Institutes of Health,
who has studied the course of prior pandemics in both the United States
and her native Denmark, says, "The good news from past pandemics,
in several experiences, is that the majority of deaths have happened not
in the first wave, but later." Based on this, Simonson suggests there may
be time to develop an effective vaccine before a second, more virulent
strain, begins to circulate.
譯 文：
喬治華盛頓大學的流行病學家瓏妮．席蒙森，曾研究過美國和她的祖國丹麥的流感流
行歷程。她表示︰「在過去幾次大流行的經驗中，有一個好消息，就是大多數的死亡
病例發生在稍晚的第二波流行中。」因此，席蒙森認為在毒性較強的第二波病毒株開
始散播之前，或許還有時間發展有效的疫苗來對抗它。
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原 文：
As swine flu -- also known as the 2009 version of the H1N1 flu strain --
spreads, Simonson and other health experts are diving into the history
books for clues about how the outbreak might unfold -- and, more
importantly, how it might be contained. In fact, the official Pandemic
Influenza Operation Plan, or O-Plan, of the U.S. Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention, is based in large part on a history lesson --
research organized by pediatrician and medical historian Dr. Howard
Markel of the University of Michigan.
譯 文：
當豬流感（或稱為2009年H1N1流感病毒株）正在傳播之際，席蒙森和其他的醫學專家
們埋首於歷史文獻，想找出大流行爆發的原因，而更重要的，是要找出控制疫情的方
法。事實上，美國疾病管制局官方的「流行性感冒行動計劃」，有一大部分就是以歷
史為師，以密西根大學的小兒科醫師兼醫學史專家—霍華．馬可醫師所主持的研究為
藍本。
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原 文：
A cheerful man with thick-rimmed black glasses and a professor's manner,
Markel was tapped by the CDC to study what worked and what didn't during
the 1918 flu disaster. Markel and colleagues examined 43 cities and found
that so-called nonpharmaceutical interventions -- steps such as quarantines
and school closings -- were remarkably successful in tamping down the
outbreak. "They don't make the population immune, but they buy you time,
either by preventing influenza from getting into the community or slowing
down the spread," Markel told CNN.
譯 文：
馬可是一位戴著粗黑框眼鏡，有著教授風範又親切的人。疾病管制局指定他研究1918
年的大流行當時，有哪些成功或失敗的防治策略。馬可與同事們在研究四十三個城市
的疫情後發現，隔離病患和關閉學校等等所謂的非醫療性策略，對減緩流行爆發有顯
著成效。馬可對有線新聞網表示︰「這些方法雖不能讓群眾對疾病免疫，但可防止病
毒傳入社區，以及減緩傳播速度，為我們爭取時間。」
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原 文：
Markel describes a dramatic example in the mining town of Gunnison,
Colorado. In 1918, town leaders built a veritable barricade, closing
down the railroad station and blocking all roads into town. Four thousand
townspeople lived on stockpiled supplies and food from hunting or fishing.
For three and a half months, while influenza raged in nearly every city
in America, Gunnison saw not a single case of flu -- not until the spring,
when roads were reopened and a handful of residents fell sick.
譯 文：
馬可說明了一個特殊的案例：1918年，科羅拉多州的一個礦業小鎮—岡尼森的領導者
們，關閉火車站，並封鎖所有聯外道路，以此建立起完善的防禦堡壘，四千鎮民靠著
屯積的物資，加上打獵或捕魚過活。在流感幾乎肆虐全美所有城市的三個半月內，岡
尼森小鎮中連一個感染的病例都沒有。直到春天，道路重新開放後，才有一些居民得
到了流感。
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