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: 原文題目：Scientists dig for lessons from past pandemics
: 題目譯文：科學家自流行病歷史汲取教訓
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: 原 文：
: If there's a blessing in the current swine flu epidemic, it's how benign
: the illness seems to be outside the central disease cluster in Mexico.
: But history offers a dark warning to anyone ready to write off the 2009
: H1N1 virus.
: 譯 文：
當前豬流感大流行在墨西哥役情中心以外似乎尚無大礙，已是僅存的恩典。但對於
以為2009年的H1N1新型流感病毒將就此打住的人，歷史卻提出了陰鬱的警告。
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: 原 文：
: In each of the four major pandemics since 1889, a spring wave of relatively
: mild illness was followed by a second wave, a few months later, of a much
: more virulent disease. This was true in 1889, 1957, 1968 and in the
: catastrophic flu outbreak of 1918, which sickened an estimated third of
: the world's population and killed, conservatively, 50 million people.
: 譯 文：
始自一八八九年，共四起重大流行病，第一波皆始於春季，相形之下較輕微，緊接
著數個月後的第二波，更為致命的病症才開始流行。一八八九年、一九五七年、一九
六八年及一九一八年的流行皆符合上述時程；據估，一九一八年具毀滅性的流感大爆
發，波及全世界三成人口，保守估計五千萬人死亡。
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: 原 文：
: Lone Simonson, an epidemiologist at the National Institutes of Health,
: who has studied the course of prior pandemics in both the United States
: and her native Denmark, says, "The good news from past pandemics,
: in several experiences, is that the majority of deaths have happened not
: in the first wave, but later." Based on this, Simonson suggests there may
: be time to develop an effective vaccine before a second, more virulent
: strain, begins to circulate.
: 譯 文：
國家衛生研究院流行病學家隆恩．西蒙森針對美國境內和祖國丹麥過去的流行病傳
染模式做研究，她表示：「研究過去多次流行病，從經驗中得出的好消息是死亡人
數的最大值不會發生在第一波流行，而是在此之後。」據此結論，西門森提出在第
二波更為致命的流行開始傳播以前，應會有時間建立有效疫苗。
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: 原 文：
: As swine flu -- also known as the 2009 version of the H1N1 flu strain --
: spreads, Simonson and other health experts are diving into the history
: books for clues about how the outbreak might unfold -- and, more
: importantly, how it might be contained. In fact, the official Pandemic
: Influenza Operation Plan, or O-Plan, of the U.S. Centers for Disease
: Control and Prevention, is based in large part on a history lesson --
: research organized by pediatrician and medical historian Dr. Howard
: Markel of the University of Michigan.
: 譯 文：
豬流感—又稱2009年H1N1新型流感—散佈的同時，西蒙森和其他衛生專家埋首史
書尋找引起流行病爆發的可能線索；更重要的，是找到抑制流感的方法。實際上
，美國疾病管制局認可的流感大流行防治執行計畫，或稱O-Plan，其制定基礎也
大部分來自歷史教訓。O-Plan是由密西根大學小兒科專家暨醫療史學家馬克爾博
士安排組織而成。
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: 原 文：
: A cheerful man with thick-rimmed black glasses and a professor's manner,
: Markel was tapped by the CDC to study what worked and what didn't during
: the 1918 flu disaster. Markel and colleagues examined 43 cities and found
: that so-called nonpharmaceutical interventions -- steps such as quarantines
: and school closings -- were remarkably successful in tamping down the
: outbreak. "They don't make the population immune, but they buy you time,
: either by preventing influenza from getting into the community or slowing
: down the spread," Markel told CNN.
: 譯 文：
馬克爾戴著黑色粗框眼鏡，帶有教授氣質卻讓人愉快。疾管局選中他來研究一九一八
年流感之災中有哪些有效及無效的對治方法。馬克爾和同事們針對四十三座城市進行
檢驗，發現俗稱的非藥性介入—如檢疫及停課等步驟—對壓制流行病爆發有顯著的功
效。「雖不能使整個族群免疫，但能避免流感擴及大眾，爭取時間，減緩擴散。」
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: 原 文：
: Markel describes a dramatic example in the mining town of Gunnison,
: Colorado. In 1918, town leaders built a veritable barricade, closing
: down the railroad station and blocking all roads into town. Four thousand
: townspeople lived on stockpiled supplies and food from hunting or fishing.
: For three and a half months, while influenza raged in nearly every city
: in America, Gunnison saw not a single case of flu -- not until the spring,
: when roads were reopened and a handful of residents fell sick.
: 譯 文：
馬克爾說明了科羅拉多州的礦業城谷尼森鎮這一極端案例。一九一八年，鎮上領導們
設置了一座實體路障，關閉火車站，並封鎖通往鎮上的所有道路。四千名鎮民依賴庫
存糧食的供給及漁獵維生。美國幾乎每座城市都飽受流感摧殘，谷尼森鎮三個半月來
全鎮倖免，直到隔春道路重開才有少數居民患病。
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