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原文題目：Scientists dig for lessons from past pandemics
題目譯文：防範疫情 科學家自經驗汲教訓
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原 文：
If there's a blessing in the current swine flu epidemic, it's how benign
the illness seems to be outside the central disease cluster in Mexico.
But history offers a dark warning to anyone ready to write off the 2009
H1N1 virus.
譯 文：
若說現正流行的豬流感具任何好處，那就是它似乎與墨西哥的中央疫情無關。但歷史
仍然警告我們，別小看二ＯＯ九年的Ｈ１Ｎ１流感病毒。
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原 文：
In each of the four major pandemics since 1889, a spring wave of relatively
mild illness was followed by a second wave, a few months later, of a much
more virulent disease. This was true in 1889, 1957, 1968 and in the
catastrophic flu outbreak of 1918, which sickened an estimated third of
the world's population and killed, conservatively, 50 million people.
譯 文：
一八八九年至今的四次世界重大流行病中，每次發生皆自相對緩和的疾病起首，再伴隨
第二波致死性更強的流行病。四次分別發生在一八八九年、一九五七年、一九六八年，
和一九一八年（該年全球三分之一人口染病，保守估計五千萬人口死亡)。
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原 文：
Lone Simonson, an epidemiologist at the National Institutes of Health,
who has studied the course of prior pandemics in both the United States
and her native Denmark, says, "The good news from past pandemics,
in several experiences, is that the majority of deaths have happened not
in the first wave, but later." Based on this, Simonson suggests there may
be time to develop an effective vaccine before a second, more virulent
strain, begins to circulate.
譯 文：
美國國家衛生研究院流行病學家瓏‧賽門森（專研美國和她祖國丹麥之重大流行病進程
）表示，「我們自過去的流行病中得到的好消息是：主要死亡並不發生在第一波疫情中
，而是在第一波之後。」根據這項訊息，賽門森指出，我們便有時間在致命的第二波疫
情擴散之前研發出有效疫苗。
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原 文：
As swine flu -- also known as the 2009 version of the H1N1 flu strain --
spreads, Simonson and other health experts are diving into the history
books for clues about how the outbreak might unfold -- and, more
importantly, how it might be contained. In fact, the official Pandemic
Influenza Operation Plan, or O-Plan, of the U.S. Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention, is based in large part on a history lesson --
research organized by pediatrician and medical historian Dr. Howard
Markel of the University of Michigan.
譯 文：
當豬流感（即二ＯＯ九年的Ｈ１Ｎ１流感）擴散，賽門森和其他健康專家即鑽入歷
史文獻中探尋疫情走向的線索，同時更重要的是覓得控制辦法。事實上，美國疾病
控制與預防中心官方的「因應流行病大爆發執行計畫」即是由歷史中汲取教訓：經
驗來自密西根大學小兒科與醫療史學家霍華‧馬克爾所組織的一項研究。
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原 文：
A cheerful man with thick-rimmed black glasses and a professor's manner,
Markel was tapped by the CDC to study what worked and what didn't during
the 1918 flu disaster. Markel and colleagues examined 43 cities and found
that so-called nonpharmaceutical interventions -- steps such as quarantines
and school closings -- were remarkably successful in tamping down the
outbreak. "They don't make the population immune, but they buy you time,
either by preventing influenza from getting into the community or slowing
down the spread," Markel told CNN.
譯 文：
神采奕奕，配戴粗框眼鏡，教授風範的馬克爾被美國疾控中心（ＣＤＣ）指名研究一
九一八年流感疫情期間各項應對措施是否有效。馬克爾與研究夥伴共檢驗了四十三座
城市，發現所謂「非醫藥性公衛介入措施」（如強制隔離和停課等）在降低疫情方面
成效顯著。馬克爾表示：「這些措施並未使民眾免疫，但無論是從防止流感進入社區
或是從減緩擴散上看來，這些措施給了我們更長的反應時間。」
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原 文：
Markel describes a dramatic example in the mining town of Gunnison,
Colorado. In 1918, town leaders built a veritable barricade, closing
down the railroad station and blocking all roads into town. Four thousand
townspeople lived on stockpiled supplies and food from hunting or fishing.
For three and a half months, while influenza raged in nearly every city
in America, Gunnison saw not a single case of flu -- not until the spring,
when roads were reopened and a handful of residents fell sick.
譯 文：
馬克爾描述科羅拉多州採礦鎮，甘尼生鎮的戲劇化案例：一九一八年，該鎮領導們建
起名副其實的路障阻斷鐵道及所有通往鎮上的道路。四千位鎮民僅依賴庫存日用品和
漁獵所得維生。三個半月後，當流感幾乎肆虐全美大小城鎮，甘尼生鎮仍未見任何病
例，直到春季道路重新開放，才有幾位鎮民染上流感。
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