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原文題目：Scientists dig for lessons from past pandemics
題目譯文：
舊流感新課題 科學家必須發掘的歷史教訓
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原 文：
If there's a blessing in the current swine flu epidemic, it's how benign
the illness seems to be outside the central disease cluster in Mexico.
But history offers a dark warning to anyone ready to write off the 2009
H1N1 virus.
譯 文：
如果近期的豬流感不幸中尚有恩典的話，那就是似乎在流感中心墨西哥以外的病情尚屬
良性。但是歷史會對任何想草草了結2009年H1N1病毒的人一個沈痛的警告。
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原 文：
In each of the four major pandemics since 1889, a spring wave of relatively
mild illness was followed by a second wave, a few months later, of a much
more virulent disease. This was true in 1889, 1957, 1968 and in the
catastrophic flu outbreak of 1918, which sickened an estimated third of
the world's population and killed, conservatively, 50 million people.
譯 文：
在1889年以來四大流行病的每一個案例中，首先是一個相對輕微症狀的初期流行潮，在
幾個月之後，緊接著第二波較致命的病情。這在1889年、1957年、1968年和爆發災難性
大流行的1918年，都是如此的情形，而1918年的大流行，估計世界上有三分之一的人感
染，保守估計導致五千萬人死亡。
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原 文：
Lone Simonson, an epidemiologist at the National Institutes of Health,
who has studied the course of prior pandemics in both the United States
and her native Denmark, says, "The good news from past pandemics,
in several experiences, is that the majority of deaths have happened not
in the first wave, but later." Based on this, Simonson suggests there may
be time to develop an effective vaccine before a second, more virulent
strain, begins to circulate.
譯 文：
國家衛生研究院的流行病學家龍‧賽門森，從事美國與她出生地丹麥的早期流行病研究
課題有多年的時間，她說：「由諸多經驗得知，好消息是以往流行病的大部分死亡案例
並非發生在第一波，而是第二波。」基於此，賽門森建議在第二波更致命的傷害開始流
行之前，還有時間來研發有效的疫苗。
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原 文：
As swine flu -- also known as the 2009 version of the H1N1 flu strain --
spreads, Simonson and other health experts are diving into the history
books for clues about how the outbreak might unfold -- and, more
importantly, how it might be contained. In fact, the official Pandemic
Influenza Operation Plan, or O-Plan, of the U.S. Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention, is based in large part on a history lesson --
research organized by pediatrician and medical historian Dr. Howard
Markel of the University of Michigan.
譯 文：
當豬流感—亦是所知H1N1流感傷害的2009年版—傳播散佈之時，賽門森和其他衛生專家
正在鑽研流行病史書籍，以找出大流行可能展開的線索，以及更重要的，大流行如何被
控制。事實上，美國疾病管制及預防中心的官方「流行性感冒行動計畫」，或稱O計畫
，大部分就是根據流行病史的教訓，由密西根大學的兒科及醫學史專家霍華德‧馬柯主
持研究。
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原 文：
A cheerful man with thick-rimmed black glasses and a professor's manner,
Markel was tapped by the CDC to study what worked and what didn't during
the 1918 flu disaster. Markel and colleagues examined 43 cities and found
that so-called nonpharmaceutical interventions -- steps such as quarantines
and school closings -- were remarkably successful in tamping down the
outbreak. "They don't make the population immune, but they buy you time,
either by preventing influenza from getting into the community or slowing
down the spread," Markel told CNN.
譯 文：
神采奕奕，戴著粗框眼鏡，一副學者教授之姿，馬柯由疾病管制中心選定來研究1918年
流感災難期間什麼東西有效，什麼東西無效。馬柯與同事檢視了43個城市的案例，發現
了所謂的「不吃藥的介入」，像是隔離或關閉學校的措施，顯著的抑制了大流行。馬柯
告訴CNN說：「這些措施無法造成民眾對流感的免疫，但的確給你很多的時間，不是防
止流感侵入社區，就是減緩流感散佈。」
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原 文：
Markel describes a dramatic example in the mining town of Gunnison,
Colorado. In 1918, town leaders built a veritable barricade, closing
down the railroad station and blocking all roads into town. Four thousand
townspeople lived on stockpiled supplies and food from hunting or fishing.
For three and a half months, while influenza raged in nearly every city
in America, Gunnison saw not a single case of flu -- not until the spring,
when roads were reopened and a handful of residents fell sick.
譯 文：
馬柯描述了科羅拉多州剛尼森一個採礦小鎮的戲劇性例子，1918年這個小鎮領導階層建
造了名副其實的路障，關閉了火車站，並阻斷了所有通往鎮上的路。四千個鎮民靠著打
獵和捕魚所致的食物堆積維生。三個半月之後，當流感肆虐幾乎美國每個城市，剛尼森
小鎮沒有一個流感病例。一直到春天，道路重新開放，才有少數居民感染生病。
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