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原文題目：Scientists dig for lessons from past pandemics
題目譯文：科學家欲以過去流行病為鑑
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原 文：
If there's a blessing in the current swine flu epidemic, it's how benign
the illness seems to be outside the central disease cluster in Mexico.
But history offers a dark warning to anyone ready to write off the 2009
H1N1 virus.
譯 文：若此波豬流感有帶來任何令人慶幸的消息，莫過於墨西哥的患病案例未持續
增加。然而，若有人認為2009 H1N1病毒已不具威脅性，過去流行病史即可提供悲觀
的警告。
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原 文：
In each of the four major pandemics since 1889, a spring wave of relatively
mild illness was followed by a second wave, a few months later, of a much
more virulent disease. This was true in 1889, 1957, 1968 and in the
catastrophic flu outbreak of 1918, which sickened an estimated third of
the world's population and killed, conservatively, 50 million people.
譯 文：自1889年後襲擊全球的4個嚴重流行病，皆於該年春天爆發，病情相對和緩，
但數月後，第2波流行爆發時，病情則極為致命。這在1889、1957、1968，和1918年那
波災難性的流感爆發時，情況皆為如此。1918年那場流感預計影響全世界1/3的人口，
而根據保守的估計，死於該流感人數高達5千萬人。
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原 文：
Lone Simonson, an epidemiologist at the National Institutes of Health,
who has studied the course of prior pandemics in both the United States
and her native Denmark, says, "The good news from past pandemics,
in several experiences, is that the majority of deaths have happened not
in the first wave, but later." Based on this, Simonson suggests there may
be time to develop an effective vaccine before a second, more virulent
strain, begins to circulate.
譯 文：美國喬治華盛頓大學（George Washington University）流行病學家龍尼‧
席蒙生（Lone Simonsen）對在美國和其祖國丹麥以前發生的流行病蔓延途徑有所研
究，她表示：「從過去發生的流行病看來，好消息是大部分死亡案例都不是發生在
第一波，而是之後。」因此，席蒙生建議，也許尚有時間在第二波更致命的流感散
播前，發明有效疫苗。
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原 文：
As swine flu -- also known as the 2009 version of the H1N1 flu strain --
spreads, Simonson and other health experts are diving into the history
books for clues about how the outbreak might unfold -- and, more
importantly, how it might be contained. In fact, the official Pandemic
Influenza Operation Plan, or O-Plan, of the U.S. Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention, is based in large part on a history lesson --
research organized by pediatrician and medical historian Dr. Howard
Markel of the University of Michigan.
譯 文：值豬流感蔓延之際，席蒙生和其他健康專家正努力專研歷史書籍，欲尋求
豬流感爆發的線索，更重要地，欲了解抑制病毒的方法。事實上，根據美國密西根
大學哈沃德‧麥可爾教授（Howard Markel，亦為小兒科醫師和醫療歷史學家）的
研究報告指出，「美國疾病控制和預防中心」（U.S. Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention，CDC）制定的「流感作業計畫」（Pandemic Influenza Operation
Plan，O-Plan）乃根據歷史教訓而製成。
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原 文：
A cheerful man with thick-rimmed black glasses and a professor's manner,
Markel was tapped by the CDC to study what worked and what didn't during
the 1918 flu disaster. Markel and colleagues examined 43 cities and found
that so-called nonpharmaceutical interventions -- steps such as quarantines
and school closings -- were remarkably successful in tamping down the
outbreak. "They don't make the population immune, but they buy you time,
either by preventing influenza from getting into the community or slowing
down the spread," Markel told CNN.
譯 文：麥可爾在研究1918年流感治療方法時，過程經CDC錄音，他和他的同事調查43
個城市，並發現所謂的「非藥物介入」（像隔離病患或關閉學校等步驟）能非常成功
地抑制流行病爆發。麥可爾向CNN透露，「他們不是讓居民免疫，而是在拖延時間，以
透過避免流感病毒傳入該區域，或是減緩病毒蔓延的速度。」
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原 文：
Markel describes a dramatic example in the mining town of Gunnison,
Colorado. In 1918, town leaders built a veritable barricade, closing
down the railroad station and blocking all roads into town. Four thousand
townspeople lived on stockpiled supplies and food from hunting or fishing.
For three and a half months, while influenza raged in nearly every city
in America, Gunnison saw not a single case of flu -- not until the spring,
when roads were reopened and a handful of residents fell sick.
譯 文：麥可爾敘述發生在美國科羅拉多州古尼森郡一個小鎮的例子。在1918年，該
鎮的領導人建立一個名副其實的柵欄，關閉鎮裡的火車站，禁止車輛進到該鎮。4千人
靠囤積的食物，和打獵、捕魚來維生。在流感肆虐美國每一個城市時的3個半月期間，
古尼森的那個小鎮沒有發現任何一個流感案例。直到翌年春天，在重新恢復道路通車
後，多位居民即生病。
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