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原文題目：Scientists dig for lessons from past pandemics
題目譯文：科學家從過往流感大流行中汲取教訓
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原 文：
If there's a blessing in the current swine flu epidemic, it's how benign
the illness seems to be outside the central disease cluster in Mexico.
But history offers a dark warning to anyone ready to write off the 2009
H1N1 virus.
譯 文：如果要說現在的豬流感有什麼不幸中的大幸，那就是此病在中央疫區墨西哥
以外，看來並不嚴重。但歷史對於任何要輕視2009年H1N1病毒的人，給予深沉的警告。
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原 文：
In each of the four major pandemics since 1889, a spring wave of relatively
mild illness was followed by a second wave, a few months later, of a much
more virulent disease. This was true in 1889, 1957, 1968 and in the
catastrophic flu outbreak of 1918, which sickened an estimated third of
the world's population and killed, conservatively, 50 million people.
譯 文：
1889年以來的四次重大流行，都在疫情相對溫和的春季後，間隔數月，爆發第二波更嚴重
的致命疫情。在1889、1957、1968、以及1918年爆發，估計感染全世界三分之一人口、保
守估計奪走五千萬人性命災難性流感，都是如此。
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原 文：
Lone Simonson, an epidemiologist at the National Institutes of Health,
who has studied the course of prior pandemics in both the United States
and her native Denmark, says, "The good news from past pandemics,
in several experiences, is that the majority of deaths have happened not
in the first wave, but later." Based on this, Simonson suggests there may
be time to develop an effective vaccine before a second, more virulent
strain, begins to circulate.
譯 文：
國家衛生研究院的流行病學家隆‧賽蒙森，研究了過去美國與其故鄉丹麥的重大流行歷程
。他表示：過去的幾次大流行揭露的好消息是，從多次經驗看來，大部分死者均非在首波
疫情中病死，而在其後。基於此，塞蒙森表示，在第二波更致命的病毒型爆發散播前，可
能有時間發展出有效疫苗。
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原 文：
As swine flu -- also known as the 2009 version of the H1N1 flu strain --
spreads, Simonson and other health experts are diving into the history
books for clues about how the outbreak might unfold -- and, more
importantly, how it might be contained. In fact, the official Pandemic
Influenza Operation Plan, or O-Plan, of the U.S. Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention, is based in large part on a history lesson --
research organized by pediatrician and medical historian Dr. Howard
Markel of the University of Michigan.
譯 文：
隨著豬流感(亦稱2009的H1N1流感病毒型)傳播，塞蒙森與其它衛生專家埋首過去紀錄書籍
，以找尋可能爆發方式的線索、以及更重要的，如何控制疫情的線索。事實上，美國疾病
防制中心的官方版流感大流行應變計畫(簡稱O計畫)，大部分就是以歷史教訓為基礎。此
歷史基礎則是密西根大學醫學史學家--小兒科醫生豪瓦‧馬克組織的研究計畫成果。
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原 文：
A cheerful man with thick-rimmed black glasses and a professor's manner,
Markel was tapped by the CDC to study what worked and what didn't during
the 1918 flu disaster. Markel and colleagues examined 43 cities and found
that so-called nonpharmaceutical interventions -- steps such as quarantines
and school closings -- were remarkably successful in tamping down the
outbreak. "They don't make the population immune, but they buy you time,
either by preventing influenza from getting into the community or slowing
down the spread," Markel told CNN.
譯 文：
馬克個性開朗，戴著厚黑框眼鏡，也有教授風範。他受到到疾病防制中心選定，研究對付
1918年流感大災難的有效與無效方法。馬克與其同事檢視了43個城市的情況，發現所謂的
非醫藥介入手段(即隔離病人、關閉學校等)對壓制疫情爆發相當有效。馬克說：「這種
方法無法使民眾免疫，但可以爭取時間，不論是藉由防止流感進入社區，還是減緩散播。
」
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原 文：
Markel describes a dramatic example in the mining town of Gunnison,
Colorado. In 1918, town leaders built a veritable barricade, closing
down the railroad station and blocking all roads into town. Four thousand
townspeople lived on stockpiled supplies and food from hunting or fishing.
For three and a half months, while influenza raged in nearly every city
in America, Gunnison saw not a single case of flu -- not until the spring,
when roads were reopened and a handful of residents fell sick.
譯 文：
馬克敘述了一個戲劇性的例子，地點在科羅拉多的礦鎮葛尼森。1918年，該鎮領導幹部可
說是築起了圍牆。他們關閉火車站、並封鎖所有進鎮道路。四千鎮民以儲備物資和漁獵維
生。三個半月間，流感於全美幾乎所有市鎮肆虐，但葛尼森鎮內一個流感病例也沒有。直
到春天，他們重開道路，才有一些居民生病。
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