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原文題目：Scientists dig for lessons from past pandemics
題目譯文：科學家以過去的流感大流行為借鏡
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原 文：
If there's a blessing in the current swine flu epidemic, it's how benign
the illness seems to be outside the central disease cluster in Mexico.
But history offers a dark warning to anyone ready to write off the 2009
H1N1 virus.
譯 文：
現今肆虐的豬流感，除了墨西哥主要疫區外，其它地方的疫情似乎沒有擴散開來，算是
不幸中的大幸。但是看看過去慘烈的流行病史，科學家想消滅二零零九年新型流感病毒
，仍不可掉以輕心。
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原 文：
In each of the four major pandemics since 1889, a spring wave of relatively
mild illness was followed by a second wave, a few months later, of a much
more virulent disease. This was true in 1889, 1957, 1968 and in the
catastrophic flu outbreak of 1918, which sickened an estimated third of
the world's population and killed, conservatively, 50 million people.
譯 文：
一八八九年起，發生過四次嚴重的流感大流行，每回春季流感發作時疫情都比較輕微，
但數月後，第二波肆虐的流感更加致命。一八八九年、一九五七年和一九六八年的流感
都是這樣。而一九一八年爆發的流感大流行，全球大概三分之一的人口罹患此流感，據
保守估計，有五千萬人死於此流感，真是慘絕人寰。
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原 文：
Lone Simonson, an epidemiologist at the National Institutes of Health,
who has studied the course of prior pandemics in both the United States
and her native Denmark, says, "The good news from past pandemics,
in several experiences, is that the majority of deaths have happened not
in the first wave, but later." Based on this, Simonson suggests there may
be time to develop an effective vaccine before a second, more virulent
strain, begins to circulate.
譯 文：
美國國家衛生研究院的流行病學家席蒙生‧瓏，曾經研究美國和她的祖國丹麥早期
的流行性感冒。她表示：「從過去流行性感冒，我們可以得知，大多數的死亡案例都
發生在第二波病毒肆虐，而不是第一波，這對我們來說是好消息。」依照這個經驗看
來，第二波致命病毒株傳播前，科學家還有時間找出有效的疫苗。
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原 文：
As swine flu -- also known as the 2009 version of the H1N1 flu strain --
spreads, Simonson and other health experts are diving into the history
books for clues about how the outbreak might unfold -- and, more
importantly, how it might be contained. In fact, the official Pandemic
Influenza Operation Plan, or O-Plan, of the U.S. Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention, is based in large part on a history lesson --
research organized by pediatrician and medical historian Dr. Howard
Markel of the University of Michigan.
譯 文：
豬流感(號稱二零零九年H1N1新型流感)傳播的同時，席蒙生博士和其他衛生專家
也浸淫於過去流行性感冒的案例，找尋線索，企圖了解疫情擴散的途徑；而更重要的，
是要找出控制疫情的方法。密西根大學的小兒科兼醫史學家，豪爾‧馬克爾博士主導
的美國疾病控制和預防中心的《流感大流行執行策略計畫》，又稱《O計畫》，主要是
藉由記取過去的教訓，研究流感散播途徑和控制流感疫情方法。
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原 文：
A cheerful man with thick-rimmed black glasses and a professor's manner,
Markel was tapped by the CDC to study what worked and what didn't during
the 1918 flu disaster. Markel and colleagues examined 43 cities and found
that so-called nonpharmaceutical interventions -- steps such as quarantines
and school closings -- were remarkably successful in tamping down the
outbreak. "They don't make the population immune, but they buy you time,
either by preventing influenza from getting into the community or slowing
down the spread," Markel told CNN.
譯 文：
馬克爾先生，戴著一付厚厚的黑色邊框眼鏡，神情愉悅，一眼望去就知道他是教授。
美國疾病控制和預防中心已選定他來研究一九一八年期間的流感大災難，了解當時到
底哪些措施可行。馬克爾與其同僚檢視了四十三個城市的疫情，發現所謂的非醫藥
介入－如檢疫與停學措施－能非常有效地抑制已爆發的疫情。他向美國有線電
視網CNN表示：「這些措施雖然無法讓人免疫於流感，但是可以多騰出一些時間，讓我
們防範流感傳播進社區，或緩和流感傳播的速度。」
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原 文：
Markel describes a dramatic example in the mining town of Gunnison,
Colorado. In 1918, town leaders built a veritable barricade, closing
down the railroad station and blocking all roads into town. Four thousand
townspeople lived on stockpiled supplies and food from hunting or fishing.
For three and a half months, while influenza raged in nearly every city
in America, Gunnison saw not a single case of flu -- not until the spring,
when roads were reopened and a handful of residents fell sick.
譯 文：
據馬克爾描述，科羅拉多州甘尼生採礦小鎮的案例，實在充滿戲劇性。一九一八年，
該鎮鎮長設立了一道名副其實的路障，停止火車站營業並封鎖所有進入該鎮的道路。
四千名鎮民就靠著儲備物資、補魚以及打獵為生。三個半月內，流感幾乎肆虐所有美國
的城市，而甘尼生小鎮卻無任何確診案例－直到來年春天，道路系統重新開通後，才有
少數居民罹患流感。
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