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原文題目：Scientists dig for lessons from past pandemics
題目譯文：科學家
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原 文：
If there's a blessing in the current swine flu epidemic, it's how benign
the illness seems to be outside the central disease cluster in Mexico.
But history offers a dark warning to anyone ready to write off the 2009
H1N1 virus.
譯 文：
如果說目前的豬流感疫情有什麼值得慶幸之處的話，那就只有它在慘烈的墨西哥疫區
以外似乎顯的很溫和了。但是歷史給予了每個試圖想要把兩千零九年H1N1病毒一筆抹
去的人沉重的警告。
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原 文：
In each of the four major pandemics since 1889, a spring wave of relatively
mild illness was followed by a second wave, a few months later, of a much
more virulent disease. This was true in 1889, 1957, 1968 and in the
catastrophic flu outbreak of 1918, which sickened an estimated third of
the world's population and killed, conservatively, 50 million people.
譯 文：
在一八八九年以來的四次疾病大流行當中，每一次春天那相對溫和的疫情幾個月之
後，總是有第二波猛烈的爆發。一八八九年、一九五七年、一九六八年的疫情都是如
此。當然還有慘重的一九一八年流感，估計全球至少有四分之三的人罹病，五千萬人
喪生。
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原 文：
Lone Simonson, an epidemiologist at the National Institutes of Health,
who has studied the course of prior pandemics in both the United States
and her native Denmark, says, "The good news from past pandemics,
in several experiences, is that the majority of deaths have happened not
in the first wave, but later." Based on this, Simonson suggests there may
be time to develop an effective vaccine before a second, more virulent
strain, begins to circulate.
譯 文：
曾在美國及其祖國丹麥深入研究之前數次疫情成因的美國國家衛生研究院流行病學家
隆˙賽門生表示：「過去幾次疫情告訴我們的好消息是：大部分的病患病非死於第一
波疫情，而是死於後續的疫情。」有鑑於此，賽門生認為應該有足夠的時間能在更加
猛烈的第二波疫情爆發前研發有效的疫苗。
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原 文：
As swine flu -- also known as the 2009 version of the H1N1 flu strain --
spreads, Simonson and other health experts are diving into the history
books for clues about how the outbreak might unfold -- and, more
importantly, how it might be contained. In fact, the official Pandemic
Influenza Operation Plan, or O-Plan, of the U.S. Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention, is based in large part on a history lesson --
research organized by pediatrician and medical historian Dr. Howard
Markel of the University of Michigan.
譯 文：
當又稱兩千零九年H1N1病株的豬流感擴散之時，賽門生與其他衛生專家正埋首歷史書
中，試圖找出疫情將如何爆發的蛛絲馬跡，以及更重要的事：該如何遏止。事實上，
美國疾病預防管制中心所提出的流行性感冒因應計畫，簡稱因應計畫，便是基於過往
經驗所提出的。而這項研究是由密西根大學的小兒科醫生暨疾病史學家霍華德˙馬凱
博士所主導。
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原 文：
A cheerful man with thick-rimmed black glasses and a professor's manner,
Markel was tapped by the CDC to study what worked and what didn't during
the 1918 flu disaster. Markel and colleagues examined 43 cities and found
that so-called nonpharmaceutical interventions -- steps such as quarantines
and school closings -- were remarkably successful in tamping down the
outbreak. "They don't make the population immune, but they buy you time,
either by preventing influenza from getting into the community or slowing
down the spread," Markel told CNN.
譯 文：
被疾管中心指派研究在一九一八年的流感疫情當中何者見效何者徒勞的馬凱博士是個
戴著黑色粗框眼鏡，擁有學者風範的樂觀男人。他和同僚檢驗了四十三座城市之後發
現了所謂的『非藥物性介入』，也就是諸如隔離以及關閉學校等手段，在遏止疫情方
面頗有成效。他告訴有線電視新聞網：「這並不會讓人們免疫，而是爭取時間。比方
說阻止流感進入社區或是減緩蔓延的速度。」
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原 文：
Markel describes a dramatic example in the mining town of Gunnison,
Colorado. In 1918, town leaders built a veritable barricade, closing
down the railroad station and blocking all roads into town. Four thousand
townspeople lived on stockpiled supplies and food from hunting or fishing.
For three and a half months, while influenza raged in nearly every city
in America, Gunnison saw not a single case of flu -- not until the spring,
when roads were reopened and a handful of residents fell sick.
譯 文：
馬凱舉了一個戲劇性的例子：科羅拉多州一個名叫甘寧森的採礦小鎮。在一九一八年
的疫情當中，鎮上的大人物們築起了一道名副其實的障壁，他們關閉了火車站，並且
把所有通往鎮上的路堵死。鎮上四千人靠著屯糧以及漁獵維生。整整三個半月，當流
感幾乎在每一個美國城市橫行無阻之時，只有甘寧森沒有任何一個人罹病。直到春天
道路重開時才有少數幾人感到不適。
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