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原文題目：Scientists dig for lessons from past pandemics
題目譯文：科學家從過去流行性疾病探索對策
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原 文：
If there's a blessing in the current swine flu epidemic, it's how benign
the illness seems to be outside the central disease cluster in Mexico.
But history offers a dark warning to anyone ready to write off the 2009
H1N1 virus.
譯 文：
(CNN報導)--如果要說一件在當前的豬流感中，還算幸運的事，就是目前的狀況，
似乎相當有利於將這疫情，從墨西哥境內的主要疫區中心解除。只是歷史對每一
個準備要就此擺脫這2009年H1N1病毒的人，提出了一個黑色警報。
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原 文：
In each of the four major pandemics since 1889, a spring wave of relatively
mild illness was followed by a second wave, a few months later, of a much
more virulent disease. This was true in 1889, 1957, 1968 and in the
catastrophic flu outbreak of 1918, which sickened an estimated third of
the world's population and killed, conservatively, 50 million people.
譯 文：
自1889年以來的四大流行性疾病中，每一個都是在春季引發第一波相對性溫和
的病狀，在接下來的數個月，掀起第二波病毒更為劇烈的疾病。這些都曾真實地
發生在1889, 1957, 1968及1918年爆發的流行性感冒，當時狀況相當慘烈，在該
次流感中，約有世界總人口數的1/3受到感染,保守估計約5000萬人因此喪生。
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原 文：
Lone Simonson, an epidemiologist at the National Institutes of Health,
who has studied the course of prior pandemics in both the United States
and her native Denmark, says, "The good news from past pandemics,
in several experiences, is that the majority of deaths have happened not
in the first wave, but later." Based on this, Simonson suggests there may
be time to develop an effective vaccine before a second, more virulent
strain, begins to circulate.
譯 文：
隆˙賽門森(Lone Simonsen)是一位流行病學家，任職於美國喬治華盛頓大學
(George Washington University)，她同時在美國及她的母國--丹麥，對之前的流
行性疾病做了一系列的研究。她表示，“好消息是，從幾個過去的流行疾病，所得
到數個的經驗看來，死亡率的高峰並未發生在第一波，而在之後的疫情。”有鑑於
此，賽門森建議，應該有時間在第二波毒性更強的病種擴散之前，研發出有效的疫
苗。
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原 文：
As swine flu -- also known as the 2009 version of the H1N1 flu strain --
spreads, Simonson and other health experts are diving into the history
books for clues about how the outbreak might unfold -- and, more
importantly, how it might be contained. In fact, the official Pandemic
Influenza Operation Plan, or O-Plan, of the U.S. Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention, is based in large part on a history lesson --
research organized by pediatrician and medical historian Dr. Howard
Markel of the University of Michigan.
譯 文：
當豬流感，也就是眾所皆知的2009年H1N1病毒傳播時，賽門森及其他衛生專
家潛心鑽研歷史書籍，尋找流感爆發的線索；更重要的是，該如何來遏制這流感。
事實上，美國疾病管制及預防中心(U.S. Centers for Control and Prevention)
的官方流行性感冒活動計劃(Pandemic Influenza Operation Plan)，或稱作O計劃，
大部分是以歷史教材作為研究基礎，此研究是由密西根大學(University of Michigan)
的小兒科醫師暨醫療史學家--何華德˙瑪凱爾(Dr. Howard Markel)所統籌規劃。
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原 文：
A cheerful man with thick-rimmed black glasses and a professor's manner,
Markel was tapped by the CDC to study what worked and what didn't during
the 1918 flu disaster. Markel and colleagues examined 43 cities and found
that so-called nonpharmaceutical interventions -- steps such as quarantines
and school closings -- were remarkably successful in tamping down the
outbreak. "They don't make the population immune, but they buy you time,
either by preventing influenza from getting into the community or slowing
down the spread," Markel told CNN.
譯 文：
一位開朗的男子，帶著厚重黑框眼鏡，有著專業舉止，瑪凱爾被美國疾病防治
中心(CDC)指定為負責人，研究在1918年的流感中，哪些因素會造成感染，而不
會的又有哪些。瑪凱爾與同僚們，檢查了43個城市，並發現所謂的非藥物介入治療
--所採取的方式，如檢疫隔離、學校停課等，能夠非常成功地阻絕流感的暴發。
瑪凱爾對CNN的記者表示，“雖然這種方法無法增加人體內的免疫力，但卻爭
取到了時間，也藉此防堵在社區中傳播或減緩傳播的速度。”
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原 文：
Markel describes a dramatic example in the mining town of Gunnison,
Colorado. In 1918, town leaders built a veritable barricade, closing
down the railroad station and blocking all roads into town. Four thousand
townspeople lived on stockpiled supplies and food from hunting or fishing.
For three and a half months, while influenza raged in nearly every city
in America, Gunnison saw not a single case of flu -- not until the spring,
when roads were reopened and a handful of residents fell sick.
譯 文：
瑪凱爾描述著一個，在科羅拉多州甘尼森(Gunnison)一個採礦城鎮上，所發生的戲劇
性例子。1918年，鎮上的領導者建造了一個實體柵欄，關閉了鐵路車站，並且封鎖所
有通往該鎮的到路。四千多位鎮民靠著儲備物資、打獵、捕魚而生存下來。經過了
3個半月，當流感幾乎肆虐了美國所有的城市，在甘尼森見到了不只單一病例，
但直到春天來臨，對外道路重新開放後，這個鎮上才開始有少部分居民染病。
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