Recent NBA Draft Success

[RonnieBrewer (Ronnie Brewer)]

Recent NBA Draft Success
By Jon Nichols
NBADraft.net
9/23/06

NBA drafts can be frustrating times for many fans. Some fans look forward
every year to adding a new young talent to their roster, only to see the
player fizzle out and not help the team. Even though general managers have
their jobs for a reason and can do their jobs better than any of us armchair
quarterbacks, sometimes it seems they're clueless. I did this study to find
out which teams have been the most successful in the draft and which haven't
been doing their homework.

The study was done based on drafts from 1990 to 2002. This time period was
selected because anything pre-1990 seems outdated and because judging players
who've been in the league for less than 3 years is unfair. The first statistic
I used to measure success was average PER in the first round for each team.
PER, or Player Efficiency Rating, was developed by ESPN's John Hollinger.
According to Hollinger, "Player Efficiency Rating is a rating of a player's
per-minute productivity." The league average is set at 15. More information
can be found here:http://www.alleyoop.com/prates.shtm.

The second statistic used was standard deviation of PER in the first round.
This is used to determine how unpredictable each team's picks were. Teams
with higher standard deviations had more unpredictable picks and vice versa.

The third statistic used was one I developed. I determine if each player
selected was a success based not only on performance but also on draft
position. For a #1 pick to be a success, he has to have a career PER of at
least 16.8. For a #2 pick, 16.6. I subtracted .2 from each subsequent required
PER, all the way down to pick #30 which needs a PER of 11 to be a success.

As you may have noticed, up to this point I have only focused on the first
round. But there are two rounds in the draft, and certainly both can produce
great players. However, I felt it was unfair to use any of the first three
statistics on the 2nd round. Because it is most common for a 2nd rounder to
be nothing special, one great player can dramatically affect the overall
rating of a team in one of the three categories. Thus, I took a look at each
player drafted in the 2nd round to see if he played in at least 100 games in
his career. For each team, I calculated the percentage of players that met
this criterion.

Where does your team rank?


                     Draft Success 1990-2002 
Rank    Team            Avg.    Std.    1st Round   2nd Round
                        PER     Dev.    Success     100+
1       Suns            16.1    3.93    80%         38.89%
2       76ers           15.07   3.53    63.64%      35.29%
3       Pacers          13.83   1.19    63.64%      36.36%
4       Cavaliers       14.57   3.31    61.54%      40%
5       Pistons         13.48   4.08    61.54%      44.44%
6       Grizzlies       16.59   2.79    60%         30%
7       Jazz            13.03   4.13    58.33%      45.45% 
8       Raptors         14.96   5.26    55.56%      0%
9       SuperSonics     14.53   2.67    54.55%      47.37%
10      Hornets         15.51   4.26    50%         71.43%
11      Timberwolves    15      4.57    50%         35.71%
12      Warriors        14.77   2.96    50%         16.67%
13      Bucks           14.29   4.2     50%         62.50%
14      Spurs           13.99   5.69    50%         41.67%
15      Wizards         13.84   2.66    44.44%      53.33%
16      Celtics         13.13   4.33    42.86%      12.50%
17      Lakers          13.03   3.17    40%         27.27%
18      Nuggets         13.63   3.09    37.50%      35.71%
19      Magic           13.41   5.05    36.84%      57.14%
20      Kings           13.55   2.5     33.33%      44.44%
21      Clippers        13.29   2.4     31.58%      25%
22      Hawks           12.23   2.35    31.25%      25%
23      Trail Blazers   13.12   3.65    30%         20%
24      Mavericks       13.53   2.65    27.27%      57.89%
25      Rockets         12.48   5.15    26.67%      35.29%
26      Nets            13.23   3.45    25%         37.50%
27      Knicks          11.88   1.95    25%         12.50%
28      Bulls           12.6    3.83    20%         36.84%
29      Heat            13.45   1.6     11.11%      35.71%

(Leaders are highlighted in green, last-place finishers in red)

http://nbadraft.net/nichols006.asp

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 59.41.173.165
推 joyboytoy:標準差挺高.. XD
推 gratitude:我認為湖人選秀最厲害!
→ sam369:
推 zenwu:借轉熱火版
→ amox:熱火選秀..92和94年12th pick,Harold Minor&Khalid Reeves ..
→ sam369:
→ ando:
→ sam369: