→ RonnieBrewer:很長一篇 .. 10/03 03:53
→ kreen: 10/03 04:04
推 TimChiu:Good heavens this team is slow. 10/03 04:20
推 joyboytoy:Giricek真的很慢嗎 o_O 10/03 09:02
→ sam369: 10/03 13:53
→ ando: 10/04 01:25
ESPN Insider, 從JazzFanz上偷來的
Well, it was an improvement. In the wake of a 26-56 disaster the year before,
Utah's 41-41 mark in the 2005-06 season was vastly more palatable. That said,
it wasn't a bed of roses. Several aspects of the season were hugely
disappointing, and the Jazz were extremely lucky to win as many games as they
did.
The most prominent failure was the team's decision to pass on Chris Paul in
the draft. Instead they took Deron Williams with the third overall pick, and
he struggled mightily in the first half of the season -- the low point coming
when he temporarily lost his job to the immortal Keith McLeod. Williams
played much better after the All-Star break, but even in the second half he
was in no way comparable to Paul. That pick is one of a series of draft-day
failures by the Jazz that has left the young talent cupboard virtually empty.
Injuries were another problem. Carlos Boozer struggled with hamstring
problems for a second straight season, missing the club's first 49 games and
returning too late to help with a playoff push. The 6-foot-9 forward has put
up quality numbers since signing as a free agent two years ago, but the fact
that he missed 80 games in two seasons is a big reason Utah didn't make the
playoffs in either campaign.
Boozer wasn't the only victim. Shooting guard Gordan Giricek's knee problems
left the position an open sore resembling the infected hair follicles from
which Giricek often suffers, while fly-swatting forward Andrei Kirilenko and
sixth man Matt Harpring also missed chunks of time.
Despite those problems, the Jazz had the second-biggest turnaround in the NBA
last year by winning 15 games more than the year before. As always, Kirilenko
was at the center of the action. He blocked over three shots a game, and with
a little help from Greg Ostertag, carried Utah to the league's highest rate
of blocks as a team. The Jazz rejected 8.1 percent of opponents' deliveries,
well above the league average of 5.95.
Highest rate of blocked shots, 2005-06
Team Pct. of opponent shots blocked
Utah 8.10
Dallas 7.72
Detroit 7.61
LA Clippers 7.58
Minnesota 7.28
NBA avg. 5.95
However, much of the good of the shot blocking was undone by the Jazz's
rampant fouling. Utah is the most unique team in the league in this respect.
Its playing style under Jerry Sloan is incredibly physical and the team's
games frequently devolve into WWE matches. As a result, free throws tend to
play a much bigger role in Jazz games than those of almost any other team.
In 2005-06, the Jazz led the NBA in foul rate for a third straight season,
with opponents averaging .406 free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt.
Defensively, this absolutely killed them. The Jazz did everything else right
-- they blocked a zillion shots, didn't give up too many 3-pointers, and were
one of only three teams to perform better than the league average in
field-goal defense, defensive rebounding and forcing turnovers. Yet Utah only
ranked 21st in defensive efficiency because of all the fouling.
Highest foul rate, 2005-06
Team Opp. FTA/FGA
Utah .406
New York .390
Boston .380
Chicago .379
Atlanta .369
NBA avg. .333
There's good news if you look hard enough. Utah's foul rate decreased
markedly from the hack-fest that was 2004-05, when the Jazz mark of .445
free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt was a whopping 40 percent above
the league average. That suggests that Sloan made some kind of adjustment,
however minor, to the revised defensive rules.
Offensively, it was a similar story. The Jazz had almost nobody that could
take his man off the dribble, yet had the league's second-highest rate of
free-throw attempts because their motion offense relies on physical screens
and pounding it inside. However, the Jazz weren't terribly good at executing
it -- they had the league's fifth-highest turnover rate and ranked 26th in
true shooting. As a result, the offense, just like the defense, ranked 21st
overall.
If you're wondering how a team that ranked 21st in both offense and defense
managed to play .500 ball, the answer is luck. The Jazz were unquestionably
the NBA's most fortunate team in terms of wins and losses, winning 41 games
with just 31.7 expected wins. Utah was 17-10 in games decided by six points
or less and also was blown out with uncommon frequency, accounting for the
difference. This is important for Utah fans to understand heading into the
coming season; the team could be quite a bit better and still not win any
more games than a year ago.
Biggest expected wins overachievers, 2005-06
Team Expected Wins Actual Wins Difference
Utah 31.7 41 +9.3
Portland 13.0 21 +8.0
N.O./OKC 31.1 38 +6.9
Seattle 31.4 35 +3.6
Philadelphia 34.5 38 +3.5
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
OFFSEASON MOVES
It was a relatively quiet offseason for the Jazz, with moves to address the
shooting guard woes being the main focus:
Fisher
Traded Devin Brown, McLeod and Andre Owens to Golden State for Derek Fisher.
Fisher is an expensive and undersized solution (roughly $6 million a year
for four more seasons) and isn't a natural shooting guard, but the trade has
other benefits. His physical style should fit Utah's system very well and he
gives the Jazz another 3-point shooter -- a weapon they've lacked in recent
years. Plus, he can back up Williams at the point when he isn't playing off
guard.
My biggest problem with the deal is that Fisher isn't good enough to be a
quality starter anymore, but Ronnie Brewer may take care of that.
Additionally, the three departed players were unimportant, though McLeod's
departure has the benefit of removing Sloan's temptation to play him --
something he succumbed to entirely too often.
Araujo
Traded Kris Humphries and Robert Whaley to Toronto for Rafael Araujo.
The only motivation I can think of for this deal is that the Jazz heard so
many stories about how bad Araujo was that they had to see it for themselves.
It's probably an irrelevant trade (Humphries and Whaley can't play either)
but it's certainly not a bright one.
Drafted Brewer, let Milt Palacio leave. Wait -- a quick guy? On the Jazz?
There must be some confusion here. Utah's recent draft choices have been
awful, but I'm a big fan of Brewer and think he'll make a major impact with
his defensive ability. He'll need to make an impact right away because the
Jazz are desperate for help at shooting guard.
Re-signed Matt Harpring. The sixth man was a little more expensive (four
years, $25 million) than I expected considering all his knee trouble, but he
provides valuable insurance in case Boozer's hammies act up again.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGGEST STRENGTH
2005-06 offensive rebound rate leaders
Team ORB Rate
Utah 32.4
Dallas 31.8
Atlanta 31.4
New York 31.2
Seattle 30.4
NBA avg 27.3
Rebounding. With a frontcourt of Boozer, Kirilenko and Mehmet Okur, the Jazz
are a big team that can attack the glass. Throw in players like Harpring,
Brewer and rookie board beast Paul Millsap off the bench and it gets
downright fearsome. The Jazz were the league's top offensive rebounding team
a year ago, which helped make up for their incredibly shabby results in other
areas of offense.
The Jazz didn't have a single player putting up awesome numbers. Instead, it
was a team effort. Boozer, Kirilenko, Harpring and Okur each ranked in the
top 15 at his position in rebound rate. Surprisingly, the best offensive
rebounder was Harpring; his 9.76 offensive rebound rate ranked fourth among
small forwards.
Unlike many good offensive rebounding teams, the Jazz also held their own on
the defensive boards. Boozer ranked 10th overall in defensive rebound rate,
and Okur was also outstanding. Overall, that gave the Jazz the league's
highest rebound rate at 52.6 percent, inching ahead of Miami for the honor.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
BIGGEST WEAKNESS
Quickness. Good heavens this team is slow. The Jazz played at the league's
28th-fastest pace, and it wasn't just a conscious decision by the coaching
staff -- it was a necessity since it took the players half the shot clock
just to get upcourt. Utah took an eternity getting into its offense and
routinely committed shot-clock violations.
Even in the halfcourt, the lack of speed was glaringly obvious. No Utah
player could create a shot off the dribble, as shown by another stat: 64.6
percent of Jazz baskets were assisted, the third highest rate in the league.
Normally, you might take that as a sign of great team play, but in Utah's
case it simply reflected the reality that nobody could create his own shot.
Defensively, the Jazz's slow feet create similar problems. The Jazz often
used -- and will need to again this season -- a frontcourt of
Boozer-Okur-Harpring, a trio that is just asking to get abused on quick cuts
and pick-and-rolls due to the plodding nature of all three players. Giricek
and Harpring are quite possibly the slowest players in the league at their
respective positions.
Moreover, the Jazz did precious little to remedy the problem in the
offseason. Brewer will provide a refreshing burst of athleticism, but Fisher
is a wily vet who lost his jets years ago and the frontcourt doesn't figure
to get any faster with age.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
2006-07 OUTLOOK
Any analysis of the Jazz's prospects for 2006-07 has to begin with the sober
reality that this team wasn't nearly as good as their record a year ago. So
let's start on the ground floor -- what's different from the 32-win-quality
team that took the Delta Center court a year ago?
In my mind, there are a few major changes. The first is Boozer. As fragile
as he's been the past two years, it's highly unlikely that he'll miss more
than half the season again. Utah played much better when he was in the lineup,
going 11-8 with him starting (often in a freakishly huge lineup that had
Kirilenko at shooting guard).
Second is the shooting guard upgrade. It's hard to put into words how bad
Giricek and Brown were last year -- at one point Sloan threw up his hands and
put in Palacio as the starter. The additions of Fisher and Brewer should make
the Jazz much more respectable in this area, and Fisher also upgrades the
backup point guard spot considerably. Any recovery by Giricek would augment
that improvement.
Finally, there are the kids. Utah doesn't have much young talent thanks to a
half-decade of botched drafts, but two rookies from last season -- Williams
and C.J. Miles -- both look like players. If Williams plays a full season the
way he did in the second half of 2005-06, that will add a few wins, and if
Miles steps up he gives Utah another option at the off guard spot. Don't
sleep on second-rounder Millsap, either; despite his lowly draft status, I
think he'll be a player.
On the downside, Sloan is something of a wild card. His intensity and
attitude are huge positives; few teams play harder on a nightly basis than
the Jazz. However, he undoes a lot of that good with questionable personnel
decisions. Call him Larry Brown light: The Jazz used 21 different starting
lineups last year, a fairly typical Sloan performance in the
post-Stockton-Malone era. Thirteen different players got starting nods,
including ne'er-do-wells like Palacio, Owens, McLeod and Humphries.
The worry is that Sloan might get an itchy trigger finger again this season.
The Jazz have a nice rotation, but it's not a deep one. If Sloan gets a wild
hair and decides to send out Araujo as his starting center (which sounds
ridiculous until you remember the Alex Radojevic fiasco of two years ago),
it's going to leave a dent in the record.
Nonetheless, it's hard to imagine a team with such a strong frontcourt
spending another year sitting out the postseason. Ultimately, I expect the
Jazz to challenge Denver for the Northwest Division title and settle into one
of the final two playoff spots in the West. Their record might not change
much from last season, but that disguises the fact that they're a much better
team.
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 59.41.44.239