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2009-10 Season Preview: Utah Jazz
Authored by Andrew Perna - October 27, 2009 - 1:19 am
2008-09 Record: 48-34, Lost in First Round
Last Season's FIC Rank: +9.2, 6th
Key Additions: None
Key Subtractions: Morris Almond, Brevin Knight
Key Rookies: Eric Maynor
Probable Starters:
Deron Williams, Ronnie Price, Andrei Kirilenko, Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur
Point Guard: The league has an extremely bright crop of young guns ready to
lead it into the next decade with Deron Williams a big part of that promising
future. His numbers have improved in each of his four seasons and if he
continues that trend he'll top 20 points and 11 assists per game this year.
He'll forever be linked to Chris Paul, who was selected by the Hornets
immediately after the Jazz grabbed Williams back in 2005. Williams is
physically stronger than Paul, but the pair will among the game's best point
guards for the better part of the next ten years.
Williams is a good shooter and has the self-restraint to take good shots.
Over his brief career, he has already become a better defender and a more
reliable option at the foul line than he was in college. He takes decent care
of the basketball; he averaged 3.4 turnovers per game last season. That number
might look high, but he posted 10.7 assists per contest (second to Paul's 11).
The Jazz were +2.8 per 100 possessions last season, but Deron was just +0.9
himself. This is only the second time I've been surprised by such a
discrepancy while going through the league's 30 teams (and the second in as
many previews. See: Billups, Chauncey). His average defense is almost
certainly to “blame”, because he's far superior on offense.
He has recorded 20 Win Shares over the last two seasons, despite missing 14
games last year. Not only has he been instrumental to Utah's regular season
success, but Williams has always stepped up his game in the postseason. His
career playoff averages, 20.2 points and 9.4 assists, are considerably better
than his regular season numbers -- 16.2 points and 8.7 dimes.
Ronnie Price will try to hold off Eric Maynor as Deron's primary backup,
which is no small task. Price is a great athlete and is slightly bigger than
Maynor. Price's contract is up after the 2010-11 season, which means Jerry
Sloan could give minutes to Maynor to see if he's capable of being the team's
backup for the foreseeable future.
Swingmen: Ronnie Brewer doesn't have great range, but his shot is consistent.
He has shot better than 50% in each of his three NBA seasons, while never
eclipsing 25% from behind the three-point line. He's 6’7”, but can play
three positions for the Jazz because his ball-handling skills are serviceable.
He's dealing with back issues heading into the regular season, but shouldn't
be severely limited by the injury. He's only missed seven games in the last
two campaigns. He's a good defender, and his steal numbers (1.7 thefts per
game) are impressive. However, his net points per 100 possessions (-3.6) is
very unimpressive.
Kyle Korver provided the Jazz with a huge shot in the arm when he arrived at
midseason in 2008. He has shot 40.4% from downtown for his career, averaging
nearly two makes per game. He's not good off the dribble and is known by
casual NBA fans for resembling Ashton Kutcher. Like the actor, he's made a
career typecast in a single role; Korver as a sharpshooter and Kutcher as the
goofy nice guy.
Andrei Kirilenko is the team's primary option at small forward, although his
wingspan allows him to guard taller players. His time in Utah has been a
virtual rollercoaster, but he's still in Salt Lake and that is unlikely to
change because of the Russian's albatross of a contract (more than $33 million
over the next two seasons).
He can fill the stat sheet with regularity, when focused and given time by
Sloan. His offensive game is extremely varied; he can post up and also sink a
three-pointer without so much as a wince. His shot might be a bit streaky,
but he makes up for it with his innate defensive ability. His block numbers
have plummeted over the last five seasons, but he's still intimidating and
can poke the basketball away just as easily as he can swat it away.
For all the drama that has surrounded Kirilenko over the last few years, he
has had a profound impact on the Jazz. His points per 100 possessions (+8.6)
figure was striking in 2008-09, when his minutes were lower than any season
other than his rookie campaign.
It's appearing more and more likely that Matt Harpring will retire. Because
of that, C.J. Miles will play a vital role behind Kirilenko this season. He's
primarily an offensive player, but could develop into a nice compliment as
part of Utah's second unit.
Frontcourt: The Jazz are incredibly deep in the paint with Carlos Boozer
still on the roster. He appeared to be long gone this summer, but the team
and player have apparently buried the hatchet heading into the season. There
isn't a team in the league that has a better forward combination than Boozer
and Paul Millsap.
Boozer is extremely strong and a great rebounder. He has averaged a double-
double in four of his seven seasons, but has missed considerable time in three
different campaigns. He will be a free agent after the season and is the type
of player that is likely to explode with his financial future on the line.
Millsap isn't as polished offensively, but the pair have similar physical
characteristics. They are undersized power forwards, but both play much taller
than they are. Boozer and Millsap are both annually among the league's best
rebounders in terms of both totals and percentages.
With Boozer headed for free agency, it's certainly not out of the realm of
possibility that Jazz general manager Kevin O'Connor will ship him at
February's trade deadline. If he has a strong first half, Utah could get a
lot of future pieces in return for Boozer from a contender. With that said,
the Jazz could opt to keep Boozer and allow his contract to expire if they
feel as though they can compete with the best in the Western Conference.
Mehmet Okur is far from a conventional center, but he suits Utah's attack
well. His offensive game often leaves opposing centers mismatched and out
of their comfort zone, but he's a sieve on the defensive end. However, his
offensive skill set makes up for his shortcomings. He can bring his man out
of the paint, allowing Boozer and Millsap to bang in the paint with a single
defender.
He's as reliable on the perimeter as he is around the basket and can be both
a good passer and rebounder when given the opportunity. With Williams handling
the ball and Boozer/Millsap crashing the boards, there aren't a lot of assists
and rebounds for Okur to collect.
Forecast: The Jazz will remain in the playoff picture in the improved Western
Conference despite their lack of improvements this summer. Homecourt advantage
isn't likely, but the presence of Williams and their two-headed monster in the
paint should make for close to 50 wins.
http://jazz.realgm.com/articles/39/20091027/2009-10_season_preview_utah_jazz/
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