NellieBall isn't built for the long haul
Bill Simmons / ESPN Page 2
May. 10, 2007
With the Warriors heading for one of those gut-wrenching, "How the hell did
we lose that series?" exits, just remember, there are specific reasons why
they're trailing Utah 2-zip. Warriors fans can look back at Game 1 and say,
"If Stephen Jackson makes that 3-pointer, we win it," and they can certainly
look back at Game 2 and say, "We choked." Both of those points are true. If
Utah advances, those two games will haunt G-State fans for the rest of the
spring and summer.
But here's the real problem: Because of their unconventional personnel and
reckless style of play, the Warriors are actually predisposed to squander
winnable games against good teams. It's not much different than succeeding
in the NFL playoffs, when you need to succeed in specific categories to give
yourself the best chance to win: run the ball and stop the run; take care of
the football and force a couple of turnovers; win the special teams battle;
make two or three big plays. That's really it. Take care of those pieces and
you'll probably win the game.
Well, the basketball playoffs are just as simple. If you made a list of the
top five things that invariably kill playoff teams in May and June, it would
look like this in some order:
1. Can they control the boards when it matters?
2. Can they bury their foul shots in crunch time?
3. Can they get a defensive stop when they absolutely need one?
4. Can they maintain their poise at the most crucial times?
5. Can they get quality shots when it matters?
Now ...
Look at the two games that Golden State just lost in Utah and ask those
questions again:
1. Can they control the boards when it matters?
Considering the Warriors have been out-rebounded by a whopping 114-68 margin
in two games, I'd say no.
2. Can they bury their foul shots in crunch time?
We know the answer to this one: Pietrus and Davis missed three of four free
throws in the final 16 seconds that would have iced Game 2. For the game,
G-State shot 26-for-37 (70 percent) from the charity stripe; Utah finished
28-for-33 (84 percent). The thing is, everyone who followed the Warriors knew
they'd blow at least one huge playoff game because of free throws: Jackson
was their only core guy shooting better than 76 percent, and Harrington (68
percent), Richardson (66 percent), Pietrus (64 percent) and Biedrins (52
percent) are legitimately shaky. That was their achilles heel. Everyone knew
it.
3. Can they get a defensive stop when they absolutely need one?
Well, the Warriors can't stop penetrating guards (as evidenced by Deron
Williams easily getting off the tying shot in Game 2, or all the damage
Devin Harris did in Game 5 of the Dallas series), and they can't protect the
defensive boards (it didn't kill them against Dallas, but it's destroying
them against Utah). So the answer is no.
4. Can they maintain their poise at the most crucial times?
Not a major problem so far, although they melted down in Game 2 at Dallas. Am
I confident that they can make it through this Utah series without Jackson or
Davis melting down and getting thrown out at the worst possible time? No.
5. Can they get quality shots when it matters?
Another problem with NellieBall: When you're creating a chaotic pace and
trying to shoot 35-40 3-pointers a game, you adopt a certain "I don't give a
f---" mind-set for the first 45 minutes of the game ... and then those last
three minutes roll around, and you have to slow things down and get good
shots and take care of the ball, but you can't because you've already
committed to that "I don't give a f---" mind-set. So the same carefree,
balls-to-the-wall mentality that got you where you need to be ends up killing
you in the end. We didn't see this problem against Dallas because three of
G-State's four victories were by 10 points or more. Against Utah? It popped
out like a giant pimple.
We've been down this road before with Drexler's Blazers (1989-1992); with the
'01 Bucks, '85 Nuggets and '87 Bucks; with Nellie's Dallas teams; even with
Nellie's Warriors in '91 and '92. It's one of the reasons I picked Utah to
win in five -- not because they're a better team, but because they're a
better playoff team. Playing "NellieBall" (or whatever you want to call it)
is almost like watching someone playing recklessly/aggressively at a poker
table -- maybe they stand out, maybe they're fun to watch, maybe it can work
for awhile, but eventually, they're going to get screwed on the river. That's
what happened to Golden State in Utah.
Now ...
There's no way the Warriors are losing Game 3 in Oakland. It's not happening.
The Jazz will need one game simply to adjust to that frenetic crowd. But I
see them squeezing out another nailbiter in Game 4, then closing Golden State
out at home in Game 5. The fact is, Golden State couldn't have asked for a
better situation in Utah -- two close games, no Derek Fisher in Game 1, foul
trouble for Deron Williams in Game 2 -- and couldn't get it done. Just don't
say the Warriors choked. There's an old saying about this that involves a
sword. I'll spare you the cliche.
One more thing about last night's game: Like everyone else, I was amazed and
touched by the unforgettable Derek Fisher saga, one of those rare sports
moments that was genuine in every respect -- the way he was greeted by the
fans, the way teammates and opponents hugged him during the game, the way he
channeled his anguish into the basketball game, the appreciative way his
teammates were interacting with him, his monster 3 that clinched the game,
his heartfelt interview after everything was over, even the gracious words
of the TNT guys after the game. We'll always remember it as the Derek Fisher
Game, one of those special nights that made me remember why I chose to write
about sports for a living. Those nights happen from time to time, not always
for the most uplifting reasons, but they always resonate. Sometimes it's not
about winning and losing. We forget this.
Anyway, best wishes to Fisher and his family.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/blog/index?name=simmons
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