[新聞] 阿凡達 首周末票房預測有望八千萬

[newline (漫長的等待與相遇)]

二十世紀福克斯公司宣布，它午夜放映總票房353.7萬美元，這包括3D加價後的票房。

澳大利亞週四週五兩天票房約480萬美元，這是同一時段2012的兩倍
德國170萬美元。韓國140萬美元

美國東岸正在大暴風雪 可能嚴重影響票房

好萊屋原本保守預估週末6000萬逐次提昇至8500萬 超越歷年聖誕檔

預測 週五(含週四午夜場)2700萬 週六3000萬 週日2300萬

首週末被上映在 北美的3542家戲院(包括2038家擁有3D播放廳的戲院 共3129個3D廳和179
個3D IMAX廳），以及17222個海外廳數（包括所有的3D廳共5360廳 其中3D IMAX共81廳）





http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/first-word-avatar-midnights-only-3-million-e
ven-with-higher-3d-ticket-prices-hollywood-now-predicting-85m-weekend/

SEEING BLUE! 'Avatar' Picked Up Box Office Momentum After $3.5M Midnights
Despite Higher 3D Ticket Prices; New Predictions Of $28M Friday/$80M Wkd

By Nikki Finke | Category: Box Office, Movies | Friday December 18, 2009 @
9:00pm



BREAKING NEWS! (check for constantly updated and inserted info)

FRIDAY 11:15 PM UPDATE: Fox insiders are telling me that Avatar will make
$27.5M to $28M Friday. As for the bad weather, an exec tells me: "Storm was
in the Carolinas area today/tonight and I understand that the DC area was
getting hammered. I would have to say we did get hurt in that area of the
country, and I am worried about the effect in the Northeast tomorrow. Even
so, this movie is getting such an incredibly positive reaction that I believe
the word of mouth is just viral and those that may have been prevented from
seeing the movie today or tomorrow will be there eventually without fail."

FRIDAY 10 PM UPDATE: I'm told by sources that Avatar has been playing even
with Star Trek all day until about 2:30 PM PT when 20th Century Fox's overall
gross and location average for James Cameron's much ballyhooed technopic
started pulling ahead. But 2D Star Trek had 400 more locations vs Avatar's
3,542 total domestic theatrical release, and a shorter running time vs
Avatar's 160 minutes, and $7M in "pre-opening shows" vs. Avatar's $3.5M
midnights in about 2,000 dates with a 3D ticket price premium. Of course,
Star Trek had the benefit of decades of franchise awareness, while Avatar is
a wholly new creation. Now Fox could be looking at mid- to high- $20sM for
today from its 2,038 domestic 3D locations and 3,129 North American 3D
screens and 179 all 3D domestic IMAX. Because the filmmakers are very
concerned about the severe winter storm hitting America's East Coast and the
huge negative effect it could have on the domestic box office. If there isn't
significant attendance loss, then Hollywood is now estimating this pre-Xmas
3-day weekend's opening grosses at $80M -- or $27M for Friday including the
midnight shows, then $30M on Saturday, and $23M on Sunday when most colleges
and high schools are out Monday.

Meanwhile, Sony Pictures is relieved that all the focus by the media on
Avatar this weekend means it won't attract much attention for the
underperformance of its Did You Hear About The Morgans? Starring Sarah
Jessica Parker and Hugh Grant in what Rotten Tomatoes scored only 10%
positive reviews -- i.e. it's unwatchable -- the so-called comedy will be
lucky to open to $7.5M this weekend (not the $10M even the studio hoped for).
It opened 4th Friday with just $2.5M. "Not what we wanted, but it will hang
in throughout the holidays," a hopeful Sony exec told me.

FRIDAY 9:30 AM: 'Twas the weekend before Christmas, but I refused to wax
poetic about whether James Cameron's long awaited, much discussed, big budget
technopic would be a gigantic hit, big hit, or modest hit until I saw some
actual numbers. That's because 20th Century Fox's Avatar finally opened in
theaters last night in North America and 106 countries overseas after years
of fan curiosity, followed by recent months of negative buzz, followed by the
past two weeks of mostly strong reviews (82% positive on Rotten Tomatoes). No
one is predicting disaster for the film. Especially not after I can reveal
what Steven Spielberg said after screening it on the Fox lot: "The last time
I came out of a movie feeling that way it was the first time I saw Star Wars."

Rival studios reported to me this morning that midnight U.S. and Canada
grosses were around $3 million with the 3D ticket premium. Then 20th Century
Fox announced its official midnight screening gross of $3,537,000, including
the 3D ticket price premium, from approximately 2000 theatres.

*UPDATE: I also just heard that internationally, Avatar is huge in Australia
with $4.8 million from Thursday and Friday combined, and running double what
2012 which did not have a 3D premium did there, or $2.3 million. (By
contrast, New Moon opened to $7.8M.) In Germany, Avatar debuted to $1.7
million, compared to 2012's $1.4M. (New Moon did $2.2M.) In Korea, Avatar
opened to $1.4, behind 2012's $1.9M. (New Moon made only $800K.) But in the
UK, opening day was hit by snow so grosses are running behind.*

*2ND UPDATE: Meanwhile, a giant snowstorm is expected on the America's East
Coast, with 20 inches predicted for Washington DC.*

I've learned that today's matinees are running about 10% better than this
summer's Star Trek. But with 3D films, matinees are normally higher because a
larger portion of the business is done via presales. Then again, Fox is
warning that the weekend before Christmas can be dicey for moviegoing because
everyone is more focused on shopping and partying. And weather is already a
factor. But movies which open the weekend before Christmas tend to do better
multiples than normal from opening box office to lifetime. While in the
summer tentpoles tend to have lifetime grosses of 3 to 3.5 times opening
weekend. Whereas movies that open the weekend before Christmas can do 4, 5 or
even 6 times the opening weekend. So if Avatar were to do $75M to $85M this
weekend, it could still get to a $300M-$400M lifetime total which is what the
movie's negative cost is thought to be.

Right now, Hollywood has refined its original unfocused $60M-$75M prediction
upwards to $85 million for the 3-day domestic weekend -- better than the
all-time December opening of I Am Legend at $77,211,321 but only because of
Avatar's 3D ticket price premium.*

Remember, this is the biggest 3D release in movie history, spurred by the
excitement surrounding Cameron's creation of the Fusion Camera System
technology for photo-realistic computer-generated characters through motion
capture animation. He wrote the script for Avatar back in the mid-1990s when
he and Stan Winston co-founded Digital Domain. But when he took the
screenplay to their special effects lab, Cameron was told it was just not
possible to make the film with the current technology. So he sat on the
project for more than a decade until there could be "several thousand 3-D
screens" capable of showing the film.

This opening weekend, Avatar is playing in 3,542 total theaters domestic
(including 2,038 3D locations and 3,129 3D screens and 179 all 3D IMAX), and
into 17,222 screens overseas (including a total 3D and 3D Imax screens of
5,360, and a total IMAX 3D screens of 81).

Now, that's a wide 2D release but by no means the widest. And yet last night
there weren't the usual reports pouring in to me of long lines and sold-out
theaters after midnight, except for the IMAX 3D venues. Instead, Internet
chatter and anecdotal accounts indicate moviehouses showing Avatar were not
playing to packed houses -- at least not yet.

Tracking, too, had been mixed for the film. While there was big awareness and
wannasee among males of all ages, girls and women weren't there at all. In
fact, rival studios kept pointing out to me tht upcoming Sherlock Holmes was
tracking better than Avatar in all quadrants.

Nevertheless, Fox is expecting Avatar to have legs domestically well into
January. In any case, it's expected to outperform internationally (not unlike
2012 did earlier this holiday season.) As for those dopey media comparisons
to James Cameron's legendary Titanic legs? Apples and oranges.


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◆ From: 61.58.96.183
推 kissahping:我知道印度大爆賣，是因為納美有濕婆的感覺嗎？XD
推 RachelMcAdam:樓上XDDDDD，今年聖誕似乎也沒有其他超強檔
→ RachelMcAdam:改覺沒人能影響到阿凡達
→ kissahping:但是美國東岸大風雪...0rz
推 macrose:因為Avatar也有濕婆化身的涵意在XD
→ maikxz:Blizzard出來面對!!!
推 Dayard:R大 聖誕還有福爾摩斯啊
推 kissahping:聽說風雪真的很嚴重，完全出不了門...